Sundog

The stuff currently south of Long Island is better lined up for NYC if it can make it there.

NYC is currently shafted

The difference is the crysophere can still be in place in large swaths of Canada in April whereas it's nowhere to be found in mid September unless you're on the Arctic Ocean.

No chance. Though I would love nothing more to be true

Models are wishy washy with how much rain falls up here They mostly all bring the low up here to affect us, they just differ in how much rain actually falls once it's here.

The Euro AI has been the only model that was showing for many days that the rain would reach our coast. I don't know what the final outcome will be with this but all the models came around to it. Amazing job with the AI Euro sniffing this out days in advance of other models.

Clouds are one of the tricky variables that climate models haven't really nailed down yet. They can have cooling and warming effects.

Even if that's true (I have no idea) I think it's low clouds that do the best job at cooling the surface. So if we are losing low clouds that's bad if you want to keep the Earth's temp from rising further.

This is the wettest Euro run yet for the coastal low. This is 6z:

The potential is there for more intense systems. Theres a straightforward relationship between energy and intensity. That doesn't mean that intensity will be realized or there won't be other factors that hamper the realization of that intensity.

It's not out of the ordinary.

Excellent post Don. I've been saying for years that a model's usefulness goes far behind it's 500mb hemispheric score.

I read a study not too long ago that showed low clouds (I think it was low) were becoming less numerous because of warming. The warmer air/sea surface temps disrupt low cloud formation, leading to even more warming, leading to even more disruption, etc.

The oceans will continue to absorb C02, just because they got a little warmer doesn't mean they have reached the degassing point. They just won't absorb CO2 (or any gas) as well as they did when they were colder. That creates a positive feedback loop for global warming unfortunately. But they will continue to absorb gases, just not at the same rate.

The EURO AI has been bringing rain from the coastal low for many runs now and now the GFS brings some rain up here this way as well. But the regular Euro refuses to budge and is basically dry.