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Gorizer

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Posts posted by Gorizer

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    1 hour ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

    Sleet or any kind of mixing isn't making it to the Mohawk Valley, no way no how.  The furthest it gets would probably be a line from KPOU  to KBGM if it even gets that far.

    We’ll just have to see. KALY is disagreeing too now. I’m telling you, nearly every time they say “just south of here”, it makes it to the Mohawk line. 

    “ 

    .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 940 AM EST...Warnings are out as we are in the calm before
the storm. Latest guidance coming in has shifted a bit further
north with the mid level warm nose which may result in a bit
more sleet and/or freezing rain.”

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Kasim Awan said:

    Hi, would you guys say Glen Falls is up for a good amount? I know it wont get the highest totals but I am here stormchasing. Wondering if it's worth taking a last minute jog north westwards to somewhere a bit further from the freezing line at 5,000ft. The system seems strong with a more northerly track as a result. Feeling a bit unsure about my location.

    I don’t think I’d move. There’s a small chance pingers could make it up the Hudson Valley as far north as the Mohawk River, which could include Amsterdam. Glens Falls is far enough north to be safe from that. 

    • Like 1

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    9 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

    All models have initialized to cold with conditions at the surface and the system ticked NW again so KALB is seriously now in the cross hairs of screwing with IP/SN but I doubt any ZR but it may cut down on totals!

    Yeah, as I mentioned previously, that over running almost always exceeds modeling around here. I may escape serious damage here in a Delanson, being north and west of Alb, even though I suspect we’ll ping for awhile, but Albany proper may lose several hours of peak snow time. :axe: 

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    7 minutes ago, vortmax said:

    From WPC diag disc:

    Preference: Non 12Z NAM blend

    Confidence: Slightly Above Average

     

    Model clustering continues to slowly tighten with each cycle, such

    that confidence is a bit above average for the track and evolution

    of the upper trough and surface low moving from the central to

    eastern U.S. this weekend.  However, the 12Z NAM stands out the

    greatest from the relatively tight model clustering with its

    surface low tracking faster/east compared to the remaining

    deterministic and ensemble consensus. This is due to a slightly

    flatter low-mid level wave in the NAM. The 12Z NAM also differs

    with its 700 mb evolution across the Ohio Valley on Saturday with

    a less consolidated wave. While the 12Z NAM is not a significant

    outlier, there is enough difference to exclude it from the overall

    preference across the central and eastern U.S.

    Would have been perfect if they just ended their statement with...    "It's just the NAM being the NAM."

    • Haha 1

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    13 minutes ago, Stash said:

    If the low crosses the lower Hudson valley as depicted in the rgem, then we will sniff sleet for a little bit. I usually use the rgem as my last bastion of hope during SNE snowstorms where I'm on the outside looking in. Usually quite amped. If other guidance follows suit then will certainly be worth considering. 

    Thanks Mike.  We'll see if the GFS and Euro make any shifts then I'll make the call.

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    22 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

    From DR. Maue site, a blog post!

    1-18-2-1-800x300.png

    That has to be the Euro for sure so there you go Gorizer so not far off from the Rgem in fact, so something to watch as we get closer.

    Keeps Albany airport in the clear, as it's in the northern part of the county, but perilously close.   

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    1 minute ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

    Well if you go by this run you guys mix in the Capital district but I ain't going there yet but man, thats a lot of warm air being drawn up from the Gulf!

    rgem_T850_neus_49.png

    Wow.  I think the RGEM is all alone with that much of a warm fetch.  Although experience here is that the warm over running most time exceeds what is modeled.

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