JustinRP37

We have a good pack that should be concrete by tomorrow morning. Did you all see the Top Golf fencing come down with the ice and wind in Auburn Hills, Michigan? Incredible videos online showing the weight of the ice and then the wind. Sad they will have to cancel their New Year's Eve party this year.

Just got back from a visit to Ohio yesterday and was impressed with around 8 inches when I got home! Currently some freezing rain. Looking forward for the return to cold after tomorrow but pissed we have to have freezing rain and rain after that beautiful snow. 

7 minutes ago, North and West said:

has anyone considered that some people may in fact be insane


.

I honestly am believing that 1 in 4 might be insane. Goes for some of my family members….

41 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

Its 6 fucking days before christmas. The next personal attacks are a ban, not just a month off. If you cant discuss the weather without being an asshole, try twitter. 
 

 

Just wow is all I will say with personal attacks over… weather. I wish people would recognize their personal biases and not defend them with personal attacks. This is a weather forum that is supposed to be for enthusiasts, We shouldn’t be putting our mods through hell to keep this readable. 

It is amazing how negative people are. We have had the best start to winter in years. Ski areas nearing 100% open for snowmaking trails and Vermont doing better than the Rockies. You would think it has been 50s and raining everyday. My oil consumption is up almost 25% from this time last year, so it has been cold. Upcoming pattern looks mild for a few days but nothing like we have had recently with weeks of mild at the peak of winter. Sit back and enjoy the snow today. 

I have no complaints up here in Putnam with how winter started. It has been cold, and we still have some snow on the ground. But I know winter nowadays never sustains itself, and the fact that a warmup looks likely around Christmas is shocking to nobody. I don’t even think a bookie would take the bet anymore for warmth around Christmas. On a side note, with these unpredictable winters and shrinking ski seasons, I really wonder how many seasons Thunder Ridge has left. Between the shortening season and the ancient lifts…

This is honestly the longest I have held onto an inch of snow since I moved up here. It has been great and cold all week. Stringing up the outdoor lights today! I honestly don't know how people don't like winter, especially on a day like today. The chill feels great!

3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Not this year

I hope not, but it seems like tradition now that we grill outside in shorts around Christmas lately. Usually get so excited with all the ski areas opening up only to be hit with mild temps and slush during the holiday week, which then turns to ice in January. The good news is at some point the streak has to break. 

On 11/6/2025 at 8:51 AM, MJO812 said:

Everyone is bullish for next month and early January.  Its the end of January  through March that we have to watch out for a crappy pattern. 

Everyone that gets paid by clicks is bullish. Same story each year, rinse and repeat. The CPC and Weather Channel are not bullish on winter in the northeast at all yet. I remain skeptical. I think we will see more snow than the past few years, but that is not a tall order to do. I think we are going to have quick snaps of cold and then moderating throughout December and January. Looking at the continent as a whole so far we are well behind the 8-ball. Fingers crossed we can make up for it. 

11 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Joe cioffi show is on YouTube   DT is very bullish for a wild December and January .

 

Just wondering... Has DT even NOT been bullish for December and January? I do not think I have ever read one of his outlooks for winter where he said it would be mild and miserable for snow lovers. I'm very worried about the Pac jet, so we will see.

16 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I know about your credentials, we've discussed them before and I respect them.

But why are you using insecticides in mice nesting material? As a scientist you must be aware of the effect this has on local bird populations that feed on mice, like owls?  There has to be a better way that doesn't impact other wildlife, such as birds.  I had an invasion of ticks at my other house in the Poconos when a deer crashed into my pool and died there.  Most of the ticks that I saw that summer were black ticks.  I bought something to spray on my clothes as a tick repellant-- permethrin.  I also read that opossum are the most efficient way to deal with ticks, as they are their main natural predator. So I've been encouraging more opossum onto that property and the ticks have been going down.  We have opossum here too even though I live in a semi-urban area, I think they would be a great way to drive down the tick population without using chemicals.

I am well aware of Lyme disease and how it's spread to other areas.  I blame stupid humans who decided that it's better to remove predators like coyotes and wolves and cougars that feed on white tailed deer who are the primary vector of the tick that carries Lyme disease.  Maybe if humans didn't kill off the predators we wouldn't have an explosion of white tailed deer.

I think you misinterpreted what I stated, I never said we should remove ALL wetlands, just trim them back from highly populated areas.  As for drainage, not using concrete and asphalt would help with drainage as well as helping with urban heat island.  I'm all for more greenery, as in more trees and native plants and grasses, less of the invasive stuff that has become so common here.

I am 100% against pesticides.  They are the main driver of the 6th mass extinction in the planet's history, as much of a problem as climate change is.  And are destroying our own systems of food production by causing the collapse of pollinator populations.  Something I always like to say is that humans are part of the environment, we can't consider ourselves separate from it, because what we do to it, we also do to ourselves.  We're all interconnected.  As far as mosquitoes are concerned, malaria is one of the top killers on the planet and there are many other mosquito borne diseases.  We have better ways than using toxic chemicals.  Bill Gates idea of using sterilized genetically modified mosquitoes is one of them to control their populations.

By the way, thanks for mentioning microplastics.  Did you know that 6 out of 13 types of cancer are on a rapid rise even in younger people because of a combination of highly processed food, microplastics in food as well as environmental toxins like pesticides?  It seems like we are going backwards and regressing.  Humanity isn't sustainable in its current form.

The insecticide we were using in the nesting material was permethrin-laced cotton, so that it would not spread beyond the nesting site. The goal was to kill off the larval blacklegged ticks on the white-footed mice to help control Lyme disease spread, since the mice are the primary reservoir for the Lyme bacteria. There was limited success, but we would truly need way more than we could possibly put out in nature to truly make a difference. We try not to use any insecticides that can travel for the exact reasons you are wrong about below. Permethrin and insecticides that stay in fibers are safe while protecting the user. The number one most terrible thing being done today is things like Mosquito Joe, spraying backyards. Mosquitoes travel for well over a few miles, so treating a backyard does absolutely nothing for mosquitoes, while obliterating your local good insect population. The biodiversity crisis is honestly the most alarming thing to me, more so than climate change, and that is alarming as well. If we have to start paying people to pollinate all our major crops, we are screwed.

We are going backwards. People are more focused on weird health trends versus actually trying to be healthy by having a healthy environment. Many do not like spending any appreciable time outside because it is "gross" or "buggy". I always tell my students that you can always eat well, exercise, not smoke, etc., but if you live in an area with impaired drinking water, your risks for a lot of health issues skyrocket. If you live near a coal mine, your risks for various cancers skyrocket through no fault of your own. It is wild out there.

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

 

Out of the box thinking is not *dumb*, just because you're an unimaginative uncreative robot.  I've read some of your posts, so I know. The conventional *ideas* that people like you have will NOT get us out of the various crises we face.

It's not *dumb* to want to get rid of places that stink.  I'm not talking about getting rid of ALL marshland obviously, just the ones near where people live.  You obviously do not live near one.  Do you know how bad that area smells in the summer?  Most of the who live here want the swamp that runs near Rockaway Boulevard to be drained because it smells so awful that you can smell it even with your windows roll up.

Check yourself, there's plenty of good area for wetlands, but it doesn't have to be near where people live.

You might need a time out, people are allowed to express their opinions.

There are ways around flooding-- INCLUDING IMPROVED DRAINAGE SYSTEMS.  There's a lot we can do to fix flooding issues, stop using concrete and asphalt are examples.

Take some Paxil so you can calm the hell down dude. 

 

 

Dude that isn't out of the box thinking. It is not scientifically accurate or even remotely a good idea. Just so we are clear I have earned a Masters in environmental remediation and PhD in vector-borne diseases and published in both these fields. So no, I am not an uncreative robot. As for conventional *ideas* you haven't the slightest clue as to what we scientists have actually done to fix these issues. Did you know we have tried rather unconventional ways of reducing tick burdens throughout Long Island and the Hudson Valley? We have tried to have mice build nesting material made with insecticide in the threads. We have tried treating deer in the fall to reduce adult tick mating. We are thinking outside the box using science. 

Humans LOVE living by water and water is vitally important, but complaining about the smell of a marsh that was literally there for hundreds of thousands of years is insane. The vast majority of marshlands exist in high human density areas. The US has lost over 50% of its wetlands to drainage and development since 1950. You make an awful lot of assumptions about people yourself. I literally live in The Great Swamp of NY. The used to call children from Patterson swamp creatures. I grew up spending summers with my grandparents in East Lyme, CT, in a marsh. Also the town where Lyme disease was officially discovered and why it is Lyme disease and not Lime disease. Did you know that marshes and swamps rival tropical rainforests for biological productivity? Swamps reduce pollution and reduce disease burden. Drained wetlands turn into some of our least productive, most disease burdened areas. These are what science tells us. Just take a look at how many chemicals it takes to run a golf course and also why they require more pest control. 

As for people expressing their opinions, I am all for it, but I require students and people to back up their "opinions" with references and actual science. People in the field do call out bad ideas when we see them. I have had to take a lot of criticism in science, we all do, that is what makes us better scientists. Draining wetlands and exterminating mosquitos just isn't thinking outside the box, it is literally potentially sending us on a death spiral. We are likely already in another mass extinction event, only this time we are causing it through habitat fragmentation and way over using pesticides. Pardon me for being upset that we are literally gutting environmental protections.

I am not trying to be mean, but I am curious, what are the conventional ideas I have had? Because I'm pretty intense when I discuss that we really need to change the way we live if we are going to persist into the future. The fact that microplastics are found in literally everything is enough to cause concern. 

13 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

My high school was built on it and is sinking a few inches every decade lol.

They are havens for mosquitoes and other awful biting insects.  I think if we exterminated mosquitoes and these other biting flies from the planet no one would ever miss them.  Aside from draining the swamps, what else can be done? Spraying of pesticides? But that has its own issues.

 

If you exterminated mosquitos you’d lose a lot of aquatic life that feed in their larvae. You’d also lose quite a few other species. Bats need mosquitos too. Draining wetlands leads to increased disease spread. Most of the aggressive mosquitos are NOT from swamps and marshes. But they are from stagnant standing water like clogged gutters, untreated pool covers, used tires filled with water inside (hence it is illegal to store tires outside with the inside exposed within nyc). 

13 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Wetlands are, but not the ones in our area (especially not the ones near where people live).

 

This literally might be the dumbest f**king thing you have ever said on here and you say a lot of dumb $hit. Our wetlands provide flood control, pollution management, and yes disease regulation. They are some of our most productive systems. I’m sorry but you really need to be 5-posted with posts like this. Hell much of the reason we have awful flooding in the USA is because of how we got rid of so many wetlands…

2 hours ago, the_other_guy said:

Im impressed that its 68F at 430 am on 10/20…but I havent had coffee yet hahaha

We ran out of coffee this morning. Imagine my surprise at 5:30. Talk about spooky season. There will be a Costco run this evening to make sure this never happens again. Then stepping outside to a humid tropical feel was my true wake up this morning! 

19 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

High school is one thing, elementary is another.  While I agree with you, the helicopter parent culture we currently live in will lead to massive freakouts and calls for us to revert back to the old system...just watch.   That's what happened last time we tried it.

My father in-law teaches in Ohio and literally got a day off today for.... FOG! And we wonder why our workers now want to call out when it is anything other than sunny and calm?

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

kids at bus stops or walking to schools is why it won't last if it happens...that's why it folded in 1973-74

We close schools here for a dusting of snow, we're not running busses in the dark lol

Our morning buses are routinely running in the dark in the morning. The high school bus picks up at the end of my street at 6:18AM, well before sunrise currently. Hasn't harmed anyone. 

30 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Who cares. The Sun already rises at 8AM at all locations on the western end of time zones.

And the majority of Europe has a sunrise time much later than we do due to their higher latitude. Nobody dies there.

You know what is terrible? The Sun going down at 4:20PM

Just using your logic here... Those more northern latitudes also have a sunset before 4:20PM, hell in some parts the sun never comes up for weeks at a time and people don't die...

1 hour ago, Sundog said:

He wasn't old enough to remember (and he still kind of isn't) but we did get above average snow in 20-21. 

Yeah, he wasn’t old enough to remember it, but I do. That was the only time we had a few days to play in the snow without it melting. But even that year was only something like 2-3 inches above normal. Even in our warmer, more snowless winters of the past, you could always count on at least a few sustained cold weeks with snow, except maybe on the island. 
 

I’m hoping this year might be decent but I won’t be shocked if it hardly snows either. 

16 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I believe he's describing the declining number of snow days.

Your temperature charts were really eye opening to me. It is really shocking just to see how short our “winters” have become. 

41 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Today is October 3

What Don said. A big part of the decline in winter is the shoulder seasons are no longer cool. Hell you just had Liberty saying September was fallish. Our AC worked just as much according to our smart system as it did in August. I like 80s and blue sky just as much as the next person but I really do love winter. I know you are happy with just big snows a few times a year but I enjoy winters that have some staying power. My son is 7 and has never seen an above average winter. 
 

Also, to add, southern NY now sees year round tick activity as the norm. We alway tend to have lows above 40 now for at least part of each winter month (and not just a stray warm night). This is stuff that historically did not happen. 

35 minutes ago, bluewave said:

More summer-like than the Memorial Day weekend was.

The Saturday to Monday highs were only in the upper 60s to mid 70s at the warm spots. The average high during that late May weekend is 75°.  

Models have 80°+ at the warm spots from Saturday through Tuesday. The average high this time of year is only 70°. 

Newark

2025-05-24	69	50	59.5	-6.0	5	0	0.02	0.0	0
2025-05-25	71	50	60.5	-5.3	4	0	T	0.0	0
2025-05-26	75	54	64.5	-1.6	0	0	0.00	0.0	0

I guess since it is not 90 we can't call it summer-like. Really worries me how we normalize the disappearance of our cold seasons. It is honestly why I cherish every single snow day. They are becoming so few and far between. 

Big question is if this hurricane seasons stays this quiet. If so, then many tropical forecasts will bust. This is one of the slower starts in recent years and it still is quiet. That may change, but development looks to keep the fish busy. We will see, but so far a pleasant fall.

What a very odd end to the summer. It really went out with a whimper. No big thunderstorms, no big heat after mid July, very quiet tropics so far, and things looking status quo for some time. Tick season also decreased substantially with the dry weather we have been experiencing. 

I don’t think I have ever worn pants in August but it feels glorious outside this morning!