JustinRP37

29 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

 

I got so used to you posting the dew point map and it saying the same thing, that I needed to do a double take. I was like wait Jersey still has dew points in the mid 70s?

29 minutes ago, tamarack said:

The high end of that would be a major torch for my area, as met fall temps have been relatively stable for my 20 years here.  Average is 45.20, coolest 43.10 in 2002, mildest 47.24 last year.  Even the low end would be 3rd mildest of (then) 21 years.

That call of 1.5 - 3.5 I was making primarily for southern NY and Southern New England. Looking at recent pasts and guidance, I think it is more than doable for Boston and south this year. I'm not as familiar with Maine climate so I can't tell. Of course there is a lot that could still change even down here. I was looking at CPC guidance as well and I was pretty much in the middle of that. It doesn't mean we won't see September and October AN only to have November BN with an overall anomaly of +1.5 to +3.5. 

Following some of the longer term guidance I think we are in for a +1.5 to +3.5 meteorological fall (September, October, November). I just do not see anything suggesting a major pattern change to colder than average temperatures. Those that enjoy beach towns following tourist season should have a nice month to do so. I have not been to the beach in awhile, but with the warm SSTs and what not, I imagine the jellyfish must be having a glorious year. I'll never forget kneeboarding behind the jetski when suddenly one went up my swim suit and stung the crap out of my groin etc. Made sitting down painful for awhile. Tentacles and balls should never go together. 

49 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

I know where you're going with that, but it may be surprising to note that the rate of daylight loss peaks in mid-September, at 2m40s/day (at my latitude... may vary +/- a couple seconds across the subforum). We're actually losing daylight more rapidly now than we will be during November and December.

The greatest rate of change occurs during the equinoxes and the slowest during the solstices. First day of spring is peak gain, first day of summer around 0, first day of fall greatest loss, and first day of winter around 0.

3 minutes ago, tamarack said:

I have 2/15 at +6.5C and 12/15 at +8.3. 

Feb 2015 was +6.5C? February 2015 was that bitter 'polar vortex' month in NYC area with tons of snow. The +8.3C 12/15 is right about what I had at +7.0C. Nothing will ever compare to that luau we had for Christmas Eve 2015. But yeah it has been a fun time to be involved in ecological/vector-borne disease research. The 2010s have been very interesting weather wise. 

1 hour ago, tamarack said:

If you begin to feel dizzy, don't eat any more."  That would work fine with some deadly species for which symptoms don't appear until 6+ hours after consumption.

I'd almost want to allow my ticks to bite me than poke around eating fungi! I'll never forget one of my undergraduate professors showing us this one species and saying it will give you a great high until you die. Ticks on the other hand take awhile to give you disease, except for Powassan virus which transmits in 15 or less minutes.

That is interesting though about your run of BN months. Here in the NYC area during my PhD dissertation 2010-2015, I did have two runs of 3 months below average (J,F,M, 2014, -2.2C) and (J,F,M 2015,-3.5C). I considered anything -.3 to +0.3 as "normal". Anything above or below that I would considered above or below average. Through those 5 years of data we +0.8C overall with the max departure from normal being December 2015 at a whopping +7.0C and the coldest was February 2015 at a freezing -6.7C. I did have one run of 16 months above normal (March 2011 - May 2012) with the average departure being +2.2C. However, June 2012 was +0.3C above normal. Even though I considered that normal, I did not record a 'below' normal months until November 2012. That would have been a run of 20 months in a row with an average departure of +1.9C. From December 2010 to December 2015, a total of 61 months, 38 were >.3C above normal, 11 were 'average' between -.3C and +.3C, and 23 months were >-0.3C below normal. Granted this isn't a huge data set, but I do have the data ongoing, just have to analyze it. Trying to get another publication out looking at correlations between winter weather and tick metabolism etc. Hopefully, I'll get that out soon! It is just really interesting studying the blacklegged tick, aka deer tick, and see how the weather patterns not only affect the tick distribution but also tick-borne diseases. A lot of research still to be done!

48 minutes ago, snowman21 said:

Alaska and the high plains have the highest variance in temperatures especially Montana and the Dakotas. The top 57 sites with the highest monthly standard deviation in mean temp are all in AK, MT, ND, SD, or MN. New England states are generally middle of the road.

Alaska caught me off guard I wouldn’t have guessed that. But the northern plains are nuts with their deviations especially sometimes in the same day! Part of me loves the climate of San Diego, but then that might get boring. 

2 minutes ago, tamarack said:

In 20 years here I've recorded 22 days in January at least 20° AN and one day in July that almost reached 15° AN.  BN days are even more skewed, with one 15° BN day in July and a dozen at least 25° BN in January, perhaps 30 making 20° BN (that stat needs some updating.)  Average departures, AN/BN, are much greater in winter than in summer.

I am not disagreeing on that at all. Winter has always had the most variance when you look at North America, and more so the northeast. You get winds off the ocean at any point and you can jump to 50+, on the flip side you can get colder than cold with a dry cold wind from the north. And higher humidity of the summer months does tend to stabilize temperatures. Dry air is easier to cool and heat. All I was pointing out is in our state of the climate it is much easier to string together above normal months and weeks versus stringing together below average months and weeks. 

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

I wouldn't feel cold at 30 degrees on 3/5 was my point,as I wouldn't feel hot at 85 on Sept 5th, no one mentioned average temps. I do disagree with your last sentence though, easier to be double digits below normal for a week in winter than double digits above normal ave for a week in summer. Double belows are frequent in winter, double aboves in summer are rare

 

I agree I wouldn't feel "hot" or "cold" with those temps, but such is climatology. Hence why people will sunbath on a college campus in April at 60 degrees, but not in October at 60 degrees. I don't disagree with you that it is easier to be double digits below average in the winter than double digits above in the summer (high humidity plays a role in limiting extreme positive departures). However, I do disagree that it is easier to be double digits below for any week in any part of the year, especially in the winter. Recent climatology has shown that we can easily torch in winter months (only have to go back to last February). We set record highs and record low highs at a faster pace than record lows. 

2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

30 0n 3/5 is cold?

Actually yes, 30 on 3/5 is cold for many areas in southern New England. That would be 14 degrees below historical average high for Bradley. While 85 on 9/5 at BDL would only be 6 degrees above the historical average high. Much easier to string together above normal weeks than it is to string together below average weeks. 

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

As far as your ending sentiment...I prefer not to rush..and in fact, am so good at it, that I actually just get bitter - haha.  Like, so deeply stooped in acceptance, my mood is right down there with it.  Especially in spring... Oh man don't get me started about April - what a gosh-forsaken wasteland of, to warm to snow and too cold to care that is that 30 ...

I think you and I would get along. You sound like I do in April! It is one awful part of the year. I always get bitter/sad at the end of summer and winter. The fall isn't bad, but something about thunderstorms in summer and winter snow storms are just truly amazing. Once everyone starts saying they are done with winter, I'm usually thinking one more snow and ski trip! 

Personally the weather the past few days has been gorgeous. Those looming thunderheads each evening are spectacular to look at, especially when our at night and you can see the lightning within the thunderheads. Yes it is humid and hot, but we are lucky to live in an area with 4 distinct seasons, each with its own beauty. There is nothing like a stormy summer evening. This week I have begun to see a lot of people hyping winter already. While I love winter, the winter crowd is definitely the loudest and increasingly so. I get it. It is exciting, but the problem is people are now playing into this because it equals clicks which equals revenue. Unfortunately, JB is one of the biggest mouthpieces of this crowd. This week he released his winter outlook, which once again calls for a cold winter. Looking back through the years, I cannot recall one winter where he did not forecast colder than average in the Northeast and mid-Atlantic. His Summer 2018 forecast, which was released in February, also busted terribly calling for a quick HOT start to summer and a scorcher throughout the country. Summer started slowly, but once it did it has been here, while the midwest is seasonable to below average. The main problem I have is he tries to convince people that he is a climatologist, but he is not. Further, the cold crowd often holds on to his words like they are the gospel of weather. You take a poll of people that hear his forecasts and they will tell you last winter was cold and snowy, forgetting that torch of a February. People tend to think that above average snowfall = cold winter. What gets lost in all this is the warm spells in between storms.

Anyway, I try not to rush seasons, except for early to mid spring because spring is basically plant bukkake season, muddy, and grey. I see this summer and early fall still being mostly above normal temps and precipitation, with some seasonable days. I do not see anything in the mid range screaming that we are suddenly going to sustain a period of below average temperatures. 

Personally the weather the past few days has been gorgeous. Those looming thunderheads each evening are spectacular to look at, especially when our at night and you can see the lightning within the thunderheads. Yes it is humid and hot, but we are lucky to live in an area with 4 distinct seasons, each with its own beauty. There is nothing like a stormy summer evening. This week I have begun to see a lot of people hyping winter already. While I love winter, the winter crowd is definitely the loudest and increasingly so. I get it. It is exciting, but the problem is people are now playing into this because it equals clicks which equals revenue. Unfortunately, JB is one of the biggest mouthpieces of this crowd. This week he released his winter outlook, which once again calls for a cold winter. Looking back through the years, I cannot recall one winter where he did not forecast colder than average in the Northeast and mid-Atlantic. His Summer 2018 forecast, which was released in February, also busted terribly calling for a quick HOT start to summer and a scorcher throughout the country. Summer started slowly, but once it did it has been here, while the midwest is seasonable to below average. The main problem I have is he tries to convince people that he is a climatologist, but he is not. Further, the cold crowd often holds on to his words like they are the gospel of weather. You take a poll of people that hear his forecasts and they will tell you last winter was cold and snowy, forgetting that torch of a February. People tend to think that above average snowfall = cold winter. What gets lost in all this is the warm spells in between storms.

Anyway, I try not to rush seasons, except for early to mid spring because spring is basically plant bukkake season, muddy, and grey. I see this summer and early fall still being mostly above normal temps and precipitation, with some seasonable days. I do not see anything in the mid range screaming that we are suddenly going to sustain a period of below average temperatures. 

Power out at work here in Armonk. Huge storm now. Rain like I haven’t seen in ages. Thankfully we have a generator.