JustinRP37

2 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

Most of the heat this season IMO is likely to go over the top or be very short-lived. The jet stream is going to set up and already is set up further south of normal, the Bermuda HP further south and east of normal. This in combination with the recurrent upper low over eastern Canada and the nw Atlantic wrapping b-door fronts and the like, days of cyclonic flow and of course the blocking. I'm projecting 5-11 90+ days mostly from mid July to mid August. Of course overnight minimums will keep us above normal overall on temps. But I'm not seeing an extremely hot summer incoming. 

WX/PT

I'm definitely taking the under on this. El Niño to La Niña are typically very hot summers and even with a "cool" pattern we are still solidly above average (many of our highs as well have been just above normal). Back door fronts also tend to disappear by the time we get to late June. I think once the humidity kicks on, it is wall to wall 80s-90s all summer. Models are already hinting at this. 

Lots of lightning here on the Patterson, Pawling border. Not much rain yet. 

30 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Memorial Day could feature near record tropical PWATS approaching  2.00” for our area along with near record highs close to 100° in Florida. There will be a deepening low crossing the Great Lakes. So strong to severe storms could be an issue with very heavy downpours and possible flooding where the best training sets up.

Oh goodie I was just wondering when we would receive our next round of urban flooding. Our parkways haven't been underwater in a few months. /s

26 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

This is why we're always playing catch up unfortunately.

With all that being said, did the models correctly forecast all these marine heatwaves? I know sea level rise seems to be exceeding their expectations so far.

 

The models for warming have actually been consistently under estimating the amount of warming. Even this month is roughly average (with the elevated averages). We are just feeling it more because our daytime departures have been normal or below, while overnight lows drive the departure. Most climatologists did predict that the northeast would see more spring blocking with a warming climate. But note that even with overall planet warming, the AMOC slowing is going to change the temperature in the northern hemisphere in a big way. Right now it moves a TON of warmth into the northern hemisphere. If that continues to slow and break down (thanks to the melting off Greenland), then we will see a big change to cold, especially in Europe. Many papers in the scientific literature about it in the past few years, but here is one from Popular Mechanics: https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/environment/a46989602/amoc-collapse/. 

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

But it's more than just precipitation, it's also the matter of sea level rise, where will all this excess water go? Trust me on this, in a few decades, people will be thinking of places where all this excess water will need to go, because our coastal cities wont be inhabitable by then.

About allergies my original solution was to merely find a way to get pollination to be reduced-- a way to population control for all plants.  Pollination is a great thing, but excess of anything is terrible and this is a perfect example.  If we had a way to limit pollination to what it's normally supposed to be, it would be much better for the environment and for us.

 

It’s all part of the water cycle. We aren’t getting rid of the issue. I’m well aware of sea level rise as I’m and environmental scientist. As for pollination there is no “excess” in pollination. Wind pollinated plants don’t have the option to pinpoint where their pollen goes. Until wind pollinators grow penises they must make an abundance of pollen to even have a shot at successfully mating. Then we have a whole issue with insect pollinating plants losing their pollinators because of the non-target effects of pesticides. 
 

It really isn’t an easy solution to any of our problems. But blasting water to space is not a wise idea as it is a larger energy reserve than even all the fossil fuels on the planet. It stores so much heat. Lose that and we have huge issues. 

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Not drain, just reduce the amount of water to match the climate we had before before sea level rise and ice melt and the excess precipitation...,. it's all about balance :-)

My ideal climate is what we had between 1983-2002.

And only kill the ones that cause the allergens, the ones we plant do not cause those.  I spray to get rid of weeds weekly starting in April.  With our warmer climate these pests are all too prevalent.

You do realize people have different allergies right? Are we supposed to eliminate all the trees? Fruit trees cause allergies, pine trees cause allergies, cat dander cause allergies, mold spores, grass, etc. also the big increase in allergies is more so a product of us using non-native trees and plants. This is huge in cities where we bring in “urban specialist” trees that can survive in the harsher environments. 
 

Siphoning off water to space wouldn’t decrease precipitation. The issue is heat not the amount of water. The oceans have far more heat content in them than in the recent past which increases global humidity and this precipitation. Siphoning off water won’t change that. 

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

No it will just be more like Florida.

It's going to happen.

temps in the 40s are just too cold.

 

That would still kill off our aquatic life here as it is outside their tolerance levels. Our fish are not tropical. Besides don't you like winter? Regardless yes, it will happen, but hopefully not in my lifetime. Once atmospheric CO2 levels reach 750ppm acidification will prevent corals from building reefs and shellfish won't be able to make shells (so dead). 

17 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

and JFK hitting 80.

I hope the oceans warm enough in the next few decades that seabreezes become a thing of the past.

 

So we can kill of aquatic life faster???

Weird how in winter the models always correct warmer as we get closer to a date and in April they always correct cooler and wetter for the past many years now. I’ll die on the hill that April is our worst weather month. 

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Very confident we see our 1st 80+ degree high temp in the metro area since October by the end of this month

Tuesday honestly could be a sneaky just barely 80 if we get enough sun. We always seem to over perform this time of year if the winds are low and the sun is out longer before any clouds roll in. 

It’s interesting how lately it is almost like clockwork that our Aprils are below average for temps and wetter than average. 

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

They almost always go to May

That’s my point. Was an okay year with lots of downturns. Their good years they usually get to the first of June. But usually you gotta really be dedicated and okay with mud. I’m just shocked Catamount was blowing snow for the weekend even though Saturday looks like a wash out even there. 

Heading up to Belleayre tomorrow to play on the 4-5 inches they received yesterday and last night. Was going to go today but the potential for wind holds kept us away. Like our last time out this year. Overall it wasn’t a horrible season but definitely not the best. Had some big ups and some major downs but hopefully next season will be less torrential rains throughout the season at random intervals. Looks like Killington will be able to make it to mid May or later this year at least. 

16 hours ago, psv88 said:

Spring is by far my least favorite season. The others I like, spring is the worst 

People give me looks when I say this, but spring blow. Between mosquitoes, bipolar weather, and mud, I’ll wait for summer. Two favorites are winter and summer followed closely by fall. Spring can go F itself.

47 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This rough pattern for the beaches looks to continue right into the fall. Record Atlantic SSTs plus a developing La Niña. So we could be looking at a high number of named storms and ACE. Even if the strongest landfall impacts are down around the SE and Gulf, the beaches aren’t ready for a big hurricane swell season. Closer landfalls would be even worse since many spots are in such bad shape. Not to mention the flooding from rainfall should high amounts of tropical moisture filter into our region like we saw a few summers ago.

Maybe it is my ignorance, but what is ACE?

2 hours ago, the_other_guy said:

I flew the redeye in this morning from west coast.

You had to see the storms we had to pick around in St Louis! The line between St. Louis and Chicago had tops to 45,000 feet at 4 o’clock in the morning at the beginning of March! It was crazy

Well that is terrifying for March 4/5. But on the flip side the snow out west  must have looked nice for the first part of the flight.

4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Ha-we get an extra hour when we're more likely to use it.   a 4:23am sunrise is not worthwhile to many.   I'm with you-go with one or the other

I've always thought we should be on Atlantic time and call it a day. No changing our clocks twice a year. Poor eastern Maine being so far east makes it even worse to be on eastern time. The Eastern time zone is so large because everyone wanted to be on NYC hours for the financial markets etc. But even looking at articles like this, it shows you maybe we aren't right: https://www.cbsnews.com/boston/news/should-new-england-change-time-zones/. 

4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

upton had 51 here with cloudy skies instead it's party sunny and 56 I'd say that's a double bust

Interesting I always saw 57 on Apple weather and TWC app for today under mostly cloudy skies. Here in The Bronx it is exactly that. But small localized differences are always the case this time of year, especially with water temps through the area. 

3 hours ago, golfer07840 said:

Biggest issue with that is, the mornings. Sunrise wouldn't happen til after 8 AM for much of December. All for what? An extra hour of daylight when it's cold out anyway? 

I'm not for either way. I just think the practice is dumb. Likewise I hate when people say "we get an extra hour of daylight", no we just shift it. When I teach this students ask why we don't just keep the extra hour of daylight. We don't! Hell China doesn't even do timezones. 

Where is everyone that is saying big bust on the temps today? It is 56 out and forecast I saw was for 57. This is starting to get like the people that say their 1 inch is 5 inches and the storm over performed. 

10 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

The 2nd part is true-it doesn't save any costs on electricity.  The first part is a problem you'd have 8:20 sunrises here and 9:20am in the western ends of each time zone in Dec-Jan.  Not happening.

The whole system needs an overhaul. But even in Ohio people support not changing the clocks. But even so I don’t get why people are so worried about morning daylight. The evening commute is just as important and statistically more people are out for the evening commute. People always talk about students going to school in the dark, well they already do all winter here. High school busses start picking up before 6AM where I am. Those students already go to school in the dark basically the whole school year.  We didn’t even have a Federal standard for it until 1967 and we have moved it multiple times. I would okay with going back to the old way the first Sunday in April to the last Sunday in October. But we’ll see what happens in the future as the “Sunshine Protection Act” was passed by the Senate but not the House. I honestly don’t see it changing anytime soon, but it is worth thinking about permanent DST or EST. 

1 hour ago, ag3 said:

I specifically said the next 20 days. Not the next week.

But where are you seeing this? The models over the next 10 days are 40s to low 50s with lots of foggy nights and rainy days. The following 10 days look like one to three days of 60 but damp and chilly days interspersed. Not exactly ideal. Just early April weather in early March. 

9 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

There are plenty of us who love the seasons being the way they are supposed to be. I’m a horticulturalist and these early warmups are awful for dormant plants. If it’s going to get warm early it has to stay warm or we risk damage. 

It’s what people don’t get. This can also give our pollinators hell. Not to mention people don’t equate March with ticks but they are out when it is warm! 

19 minutes ago, ag3 said:

Agree. Love DST.

We should honestly just keep DST year round. Changing clocks doesn’t do anything it was originally proposed to do. 

22 minutes ago, ag3 said:

It’s going to approach 70 degrees today and the next 20 days will feature plenty of 60s and 70s.

Not up by me in the foothills. Have today and one day next week in the 60s, the rest are 40s with rain. Spring always sucks except for those rare warm days with sun. The rest is mud, bugs, and more mud.