iceman56

Very happy with Colebrook/Columbia, NH.   Got 3730' Mount Bunnell (formerly Blue Mt.) out my window when I'm there.    Surrounded by the 28K acre Bunnell wildlife preserve.

Dead quiet most of the time and a unique sunset every day (when the sun is out which is rare this time of year).   Annual average snowfall ~ 150".

22 hours ago, PhineasC said:

I drove up the Mt Washington auto road today. I'm sure it's old hat for all of you, but I will just say it was terrifying. LOL

I had no idea it was like that. I had in my mind a nice two lane road with guardrails.

Glad I did it, but never, ever again. I would much rather hike up.

Did that last week.   Wife drove, I sat in the middle of the seat.    Going up was worse as a passenger as most of the way up you're on the Great Gulf side.    Got the tickets to go in the State Park building which was good to limit the crowds from the damn train, but the gift shop was a mob scene, you couldn't move.    Always cool to get a bag of chips to take down and see it deflate.    Pouring rain and low 40's, yet nothing showed up on radar.    By the time we got back down to 5000 ft the sun was out.    Nice to see the trees starting to change up there.    Back in humid-ass PA this week.

7 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

Larry Cosgrove released his outlook for winter 2016-2017 and its not good if you like cold and snow although confidence levels are not particularly high. He is also going with a very warm December which seems to contradict most outlooks.

https://groups.google.com/forum/?hl=en-US#!topic/weatheramerica/PeySp4BFjEA

https://groups.google.com/forum/?hl=en-US#!topic/weatheramerica/bBiWzmLaLSA

https://groups.google.com/forum/?hl=en-US#!topic/weatheramerica/gbv3LItS4Yo

https://groups.google.com/forum/?hl=en-US#!topic/weatheramerica/udrthzDZ-Dw

Yup, warm Nov, Dec, Jan.     Backloaded Feb & Mar.     He's pretty much on his own.

Just going to put this here, while the weather is nice and quiet

http://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/bill-nye-bets-joe-bastardi-20k-climate-change_us_571589a5e4b0018f9cbaee3a

Odd though, JB is expecting 2016 to be the warmest on record due to remnant El Nino warmth and the AMO not having flipped yet.

He expects a global cooldown to begin in 2017.

Starting to not care for the high numbers in that forecast.

According to the accu weather 90 day forecast we(Trenton) get to July 10 without a 90 degree day. The highest that I saw was 85 on June 30. LOL

Following the averages to the letter it appears without considering that averages happen as the result of extremes that are

pretty tough to hit 90 days out.

JB going with a general 3 to 6" from DCA to NYC in the I95 corridor.....

JB highlighting the early march timeframe with the more favorable NAO for an east coast event....thinks this one will not go west of apps like last couple. Sees a similarity but stresses not a forecast like the blizzard. Sees same southern branch weakness that Euro falls this far out....says winter not over - despite what many here believe (not saying he is right of course!)

JB touting the MJO as causing the warmth to be delayed but not denied (cannot fight the tropics). Now days 5 to 15 will be cold but centered in the Midwest for cold and snow - including the next big storm after this week which he says will likely go up west of the apps. Basically his thinking is while February will be cold relative to averages it will NOT be as cold as he originally thought. Also thinking we will likely NOT see any big snow storms in the east. 

He was as pessimistic as I think I've ever seen him regarding the pattern - basically writing off winter after 2/15 unless the MJO

can get to cold phases 1,2,3 which really isn't forecasted at this time.     The problem is that by the time it gets there, we can be well into March and below normal temps yield us a cold rain and fog.     I also think also he's giving the strat warming too much credit as it's really just a temporary shift/split rather than a disappearance of the cold pool.

Cecily going with 20-24" in backloaded winter. Could be as low as 12" or as high as 32"

depending on El Nino maintaining strength and influence.

http://6abc.com/weather/cecily-tynans-winter-weather-outlook-/1082334/

JB honking for Sunday night and Monday says expect models and forecasts to continue to get weaker and colder and is thinking a major battle N of MD line....says someone between PHL and NYC could see a repeat of what took place in DC with the last storm. Plus the next storm will NOT be as warm due to "thermally induced circulation"

He's actually indicating an area of 6-10" shows up across eastern PA into the PHL NW burbs due to the 'reverse eddy' off the Jersey coast.   Not buying the 60 degree temps showing up on some models for Wednesday either.

JB post this AM on why the GFS will correct back south by tomorrow AM

 

"When I laid this storm out earlier in the week, when models were well south, the call was for a low to get to southern Ohio, then reform on the coast and head out s of New England. GIven that the corridor of heaviest snow is now closer to I-80 than I-70, there has been a north adjustment, not so much in the position of the low over Se Ohio, but further east. But should that continue. I dont think so, it may continue on the models till tomorrow then come back south again. Why?

"The negative NAO right now the track will be influenced. The GFS, perhaps correctly, simply bully the storm through the mountains . This looks wrong. First of all cold dry air is drilling south off the east coast. This air will be pulled back in as the storm comes in, and though it would have warmed on its journey south, it cools coming back if moistened. 2cnd. Where ever the precip breaks out, the cold air will fight, even if the fresh cold to the north has not arrived. This is a cold air mass, its still cold advecting, Hard to believe within 48 hours and after so much precip, its routed. 3rd. The front from the north. This is going to keep pressing east of the mountains and as it does it will be drawn in. The fact is that a storm pulls air from every where, including in front of it, toward it. If you think about how that works, the wind blowing from higher pressure to lower pressure in the low levels, when the rate of Warm advection is greater than rate of warming in the low levels, is what leads to upward motion. Have a reason for the low levels to fight, there is greater overrunning which in turn changes the pressure field. Moral: Watch where it starts as snow.. chances are any place more than 100 miles north of that stays snow ( with some sleet at the height of the storm)

The ECMWF ensemble shows what I am talking about, as it has the "damming" look for the low, with the warm front being the boundary the low goes too"

JB post this AM on why the GFS will correct back south by tomorrow AM

 

"When I laid this storm out earlier in the week, when models were well south, the call was for a low to get to southern Ohio, then reform on the coast and head out s of New England. GIven that the corridor of heaviest snow is now closer to I-80 than I-70, there has been a north adjustment, not so much in the position of the low over Se Ohio, but further east. But should that continue. I dont think so, it may continue on the models till tomorrow then come back south again. Why?

"The negative NAO right now the track will be influenced. The GFS, perhaps correctly, simply bully the storm through the mountains . This looks wrong. First of all cold dry air is drilling south off the east coast. This air will be pulled back in as the storm comes in, and though it would have warmed on its journey south, it cools coming back if moistened. 2cnd. Where ever the precip breaks out, the cold air will fight, even if the fresh cold to the north has not arrived. This is a cold air mass, its still cold advecting, Hard to believe within 48 hours and after so much precip, its routed. 3rd. The front from the north. This is going to keep pressing east of the mountains and as it does it will be drawn in. The fact is that a storm pulls air from every where, including in front of it, toward it. If you think about how that works, the wind blowing from higher pressure to lower pressure in the low levels, when the rate of Warm advection is greater than rate of warming in the low levels, is what leads to upward motion. Have a reason for the low levels to fight, there is greater overrunning which in turn changes the pressure field. Moral: Watch where it starts as snow.. chances are any place more than 100 miles north of that stays snow ( with some sleet at the height of the storm)

The ECMWF ensemble shows what I am talking about, as it has the "damming" look for the low, with the warm front being the boundary the low goes too"

Not that It can't be right, I knew he would say that before I logged on.   We haven;t seem many reversals once it goes north, especially in this short a time frame.

Anyone can be a meterologist these days.

No real science in the profession.

Really don't think we need people these days in the business. A few people to run a computer program and send out the forecast. Computer voices  or a cartoon animated person on your tv screen

I bet if you ran the average all the top rated weather models, your forecast would have been decent for this storm 12-24 hours out.

Only reason this storm busted, was human emotion got involved. DT is the classic example.

Good post on a weather board where we are lucky to still have a few pros contribute...

You mean west of the river correct?

Yeah, fixed it...  duh

Looking like anyone getting 6" west of the river will be lucky at this point.

Gotta say that he said to take any warmups with a grain of salt and don't be surprised if any moderation features snow. What looked like 40's to near 50 for 4 or 5 days is now a single day

of low 40's (Sunday) with a threat of snow on the front and back end of a storm as shown in my local P&C.

Cecily @ 6ABC going with 30-36" in Philly metro, 36-42" LV and 18-24" at the shore.    Expects mixed precip

in noreasters and 1-2 degree below normal for winter.

http://6abc.com/weather/cecilys-winter-weather-outlook/394035/

Cecily steps to the plate tonight @ 11:00 which is probably Accuwx driven.

JB has the upper low going from Toledo to Elkins to Richmond VA with snow from the mountain of NC up to Maine with snow possibly getting as far south and near the coast as North Jersey

And he still doesn't let this track go today even in the face of zero model support.

The greatest threat for a landfalling hurricane along the U.S. coastline will be between Eastport, ME & Brownsville, TX

He's going with the in-close development with east coast threats with very little coming out of the deep tropics with

cooler than normal water and dry air forecasted.    I think he said 9 total storms, 2-3 majors and 70-90 ACE.

I see LC with similar numbers, but more focus in the gulf than east coast.

Can't find it readily, but I think he was going 0 to plus 1 on temps around here, biased warmer late in the summer.

Precip also close to normal, again biased wetter later on due to tropical influence.