cut

I think we need to come up with an Alex Jones award for this board.

Someone posted that the MJO looked more COD and then rehook back to the left - after maybe a shallow tickle into 5 but not with enough amplitude to do much.

10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'm actually surprised the Euro came this far in this particular run cycle... I mean some, sure... But 120 to 132 hours E of Chicago longitude is tantamount to not yet in the Euro's wheelhouse... One thing I've noticed about the Euro is that it's stubborn in the latter middle range and if it changes it usually waits until 108 hours.   This ...sort of beats that ...maybe the emerging signal is louder in the background numerical physics... possible - sure. 

I wonder if tonight's run ...well, 1 am ... rolls in more ominous.  Then, we deal with two days of back off...  melt-downs...  bi-polar swings on every run ...before they all come back on Monday with a blizzard. 

kidding of course. 

Tip - you had posited that there maybe a 'snap to' effect as the models are slow to react to the paradigm shift at first but then there is a tipping point (ha - tipping point - that's funny) at which they correct quickly - we seeing that?

So wait - I'm just catching up. No models now because of the shutdown???????

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Boy ...there's really time to evolve that into something more... 

I almost suggest if the modeling stops focusing on the lead impulse and the IB burst thing as sweeper, and starts putting more emphasis on that/those trailing mechanics ... that region from the MA/NE should watch that. 

At 120 hours (...yeah, like "day five" hello -) there is tendency to quasi close the 500 mb surface over NE ...central new England axis point... It sort of slowly melon balls it's way down another 15 or so DM over the ensuing 12 to 18 hours, while an impressive momentum fluxes into the southwest part of the trough. 

It's 120 kts at 500 mb in the negative slope of the total L/W space!! That's hard to do... There's a lot there feeding into the bottom of that trough and at 120+ hours, there's time to modulate that toward some form of more purer N/stream and/or NJ model ordeal. 

Talk dirty!!!

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

would anyone have a clue why CPC stopped updating their stratosphere-troposphere monitoring web page three days ago? 

they were in operation for all the other days of this gov appropriations thing so not sure that's why here.  It's kind of annoying -

You actually just gave this weenie some hope to grab - maybe the shutdown is causing some type of fail by the models in ingesting data and we will all of a sudden return to wintery outlooks when the money starts to flow again!!! 

One can dream right!!!!

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

would anyone have a clue why CPC stopped updating their stratosphere-troposphere monitoring web page three days ago? 

they were in operation for all the other days of this gov appropriations thing so not sure that's why here.  It's kind of annoying -

I heard Joe Ciofi talk about this on his youtube video - I think different agencies had funding last different amounts of time.

Liking the tone of this thread more in the last 18 hours or so - and knowledgeable posters with the better news as well. Thanks all.

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

For what it's worth ...

Good news regarding the stratosphere up north ... well, good news for winter enthusiasm   Tough to keep in mind, suppose 85.3% of society loathes the climate at this time of year, so to be fair to them ... bad news would be more like it.

The 1 thru 10 hPa sigma level winds are coming into the observations with a mid ranged easterly anomaly.  That's an important first signal to impending PV weakening. Also, as the total mass of the thermal plume is also emerged(ing), it's pretty evident that while it may not be top tier comparing to other years with SSW in the past four decades, it's large in physical volume.  It's comparable in volume-dimension alone to other propagating examples in the data set.  

I found it interesting that no sooner do these observations become clear ... the CPC AO completely discontinued it's previous dynamics with that indexes outlook. The vaster majority of members are less than zero, whereas just twenty-four hours ago ..they were all positive out through the end of week two.  It's the character of that continuity break that sticks out for me... namely, yesterday, not only were the members positive, but they were reasonably well-clustered too.  Though this new layout is more mop ended, it "might" be the beginnings of the exertion on the AO/PV.  

It's not anything to hang a hat on... but, I was looking (personally) for these initial observations to come into focus and see that they have, that helps my personal confidence that this SSW may down well and precede -AO.  

Just as a caution... the usual caveats apply:  is this any -AO going to be cold delivery on our side of the hemisphere... first, or delayed... ?  I think much of that will come down to the MJO/Pacific arc of events and whether those time well.   If the MJO comes around to Phase 7-8-1 ... ?2, those tend to correlate with -AO phases anyway, do to the fact that those phase spaces load upticks in cyclogen/enhancing easterly flow in the means along the 50 to 60 N parallel --> defaulting the AO negative when that occurs.  So, if those can come around when the AO is dropping anyway?  LOOK OUT

Encouraging - thanks for the insight.

2 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

should we start a thread for the 24th?  sounds like it's worth discussing further as models come in..

Maybe wait until all 12Z models first? don't want to jinx our good momentum on this event.

Watching models is seemingly more satisfying than watching a portfolio today!!! Sounds like good trends WRT Christmas onwards.

Driving down 95 in Norwalk this morning I saw that they had cleaned out the drains in the median recently - I think last night. Looked like they used a backhoe on several of them recently - fresh dirt all around the drains.

1 hour ago, jfklganyc said:

Lot of frost this morning. Right up there with the most frost I’ve seen the season

That always happens as we flip to a warmer pattern.

10 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

We going to Universal, staying at Portofino.  My wife made all of the dinner reservations a couple of days ago.

Going down this Summer - same hotel. I work for NBCSN so I get a discount on rooms and tix.

5 minutes ago, TheCloser24 said:

January 28, 2004 storm: 8"-12" in Fairfield and New Haven counties.

Wasn't the forecast for like double that?

We bought our house in November 2003. I remember we had pipes freeze in our very first winter and the plumber was complaining because he had way more burst pipes call than he could handle. I think I remember a stretch of over 3 weeks where we stayed below freezing. I do recall one significant storm that sort of fizzled a bit, I think we still got like 10 but the forecast was way higher - in January of 2004 I believe. This is for SW CT I am speaking.

I know it's Fox - but this isn't fake news it looks like - and it's Cohen being quoted so there's that.

SSW

2 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Major wood after seeing their posts

LOL. When did they post those? Great news, the often desired - rarely realized SSW may finally be here!!!!

4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Great post by Isotherm. He does believe it dies out.

 I looked for his post in NYC forum - how far back? I went back 4 hours.

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Right...was just gonna snark about that 10 Day Euro's attempt to blue-ball the hopefuls on Xmass Eve...   Question is, how gullible.

So, it's mid way thru the month...  nearing 150 pages.  If there's usefulness to this thread it's probably lost irrecoverably buried beneath reams of torment at this point. 

Maybe December Discussion part II is in order?

Agreed - and maybe we can 'stick to the plan' a bit more and stay on track with weather patterns and less crying in the hot chocolate.

Just now, weathafella said:

GEPS however is full bore.

As in un-boring or as in ho hum?

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I don't know who is really qualified to serve as arbiter in that debate ... but as a passive observer along the way - both sides appear to be responding to resentment and/or semantics the whole time.  Now ... y'all on either side may feel righteous and put off by that compromise ... but as objectively as I can muster, you're arguing through subjective interpretation - that never ends well.  One side thinks the other has an agenda, and that annoys them, and only foments further.

It's interesting.  I've noticed a tendency ...over years actually ( years! ), enough so to prove it's a real phenomenon, people of the public hoi-polloi knee-jerk respond and apply suspicion of other people's intent, first, with less any analytic consideration for what is actually being said. 

I see it all the time, elsewhere too..  Communication via email at the office? That's an art! I work in a field that has zippo nothing zilch to do with this sort of affair, and it's the same deal.  Same exact f'n thing - "Hey, Ashley, can you read this email before I make our department sound like a big azzhole?"   Dimes to donuts, that email needs editing because despite all best intentions, some participle or predicate looks like a steaming winking, burning brown-eye.  

But these are white faces in here. Communication ... as it is scienced, is about 30% words, but ~ 70% music. The music is the intonation, along with the subtleties of a speaker's face and body expressions. This music cannot happen on the Internet.  Then, missing that ... the human mind uses the imagination.  Oops!  Any predisposition to the reader and the imagination of said reader will be happy to construct why they think the other azzhole's intentions are... 

Doesn't take Hannibal Lecter to see where that ends up... 

 

 

This can be applied to our current political discussion as well.

Hoping we get the return to wintery weather prior to Christmas. I have a good feeling - loosely based on science.

36 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I've said it a hundred times... just ask.

I'm happy to  ... wait for it, "paraphrase"   ... (oh god, run for your lives!) ... 

The complaint of writing style ...mm, has some merit - but only to a point? 

One must be aware of their audience. That's like ... 8th grade English lesson material right there. Beyond failing that, affecting/effective communication begins with that understanding, so is in part (that's in part ) the responsibility of the word smith. 

 

 

I dig it - keep it up.

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Believe that was def a very very brief transient -nao or w some well timed bootleg -nao

 

Turned a Meh into a Heh - that's for sure. Turned that Winter right around.

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I completely agree. That’s what most have been saying. I think I even said earlier that it was a decent pattern and bad luck will likely cause this to miss, but that’s how it goes. You also can have the opposite with good luck in bad patterns.

Wasn't the blizzard of 2013 a case of good luck in a poor pattern? I seem to remember that but could be wrong.