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Mariner

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About Mariner

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KIWI
  • Location:
    Maine
  1. Mariner

    Tropical Cyclones Forecast Errors

    This document is the one recommended for mariners to use. Mariner's Guide for Hurricane Awareness in the North Atlantic Basin. From that document.
  2. Mariner

    Tropical Cyclones Forecast Errors

    I'll put the question this way. From this paper The Theory of Hurricanes the model used for a tropical cyclone is a Carnot heat Engine. So with this simple model, when a TC undergoes rapid intensification due to an increase in sea surfaces temperatures (SST), it seems like there is a positive feedback loop in that the TC draws more heat from both a wider area and by mixing into deeper waters. By contrast, if the intensification is due to other factors, say less shear or better outflow, that same feedback loop (more heat uptake) would exist but to a far lesser extent. Is this true in practice or is that an over-simplification? Or just plain wrong? Maybe any source of rapid intensification would have the same (more or less) feedback loop.
  3. With regards to intensity errors in forecast for tropical cyclones, if a tropical system enters an area with higher Sea Surface Temps then expected it seems as if the resulting increase in intensity would cause an increase in heat uptake from two sources. There would be an increase in intensity because of the cyclone would increase in size, therefore drawing heat from a larger area, and mixing would take place to a greater depth. So it seems that small errors in track could have much magnified effect on intensity. Is this right or is there some mechanism that would limit this feedback loop? Assuming no changes in shear etc.
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