GSwizzle83

1 hour ago, rockchalk83 said:

I don’t think solar radiation had an issue with the snow flakes being small. I think it was so cold & dry in the snow growth zone it didn’t take much moisture to make those flakes. Hence, why they were so small. 

The small flakes could have led to some minor compaction, but that’s a process generally left for heavy, wet snow.

Sorry if my post was confusing. I meant that compaction was an issue because of the size of the flakes and not that the flake size led to solar radiation lowering totals. For example, just saw the SGF recorded .75" of liquid equivalent yet only had a little over 6" of snow. 

Wound up with 6" here... I think. Lots of drifting. If the models hadn't looked so promising we would all have been excited with this result. That's the expectation game, I guess.

I do think that there are some questions I still have about the models missing this. There were some signals, I agree. I think compaction and solar radiation may have played a role, too, because the flakes were so small. I don't know if that is part of the issue or not in the cold. Worth considering. 

I guess that is why this hobby is never boring.  Lucy is always waiting around the corner to move the football...

I remain optimistic in portions of MO and AR (along with far NE OK) that we are going to cash in. That warm nose is wreaking havoc in portions of OK though. I wouldn't want to be from OKC east on I-40 right now in this icy mess. 

US-75 is closed south of Tulsa because of so many slideoffs. 

21z RAP is going gangbusters... it is very unusual to see precip actually increase on the models in the leadup to the event. Usually it is letdown city. 

What is the Kuchera initializing snow ratios at on the NAM?

Here is the official SGF graphic...

29 minutes ago, JoMo said:

Even though it's far out for the NAM, it did have the 700 MB winds more back to a more southerly direction on the 18z compared to the 12z, lots of warm moist air from the south on the 700 MB temp advection map lifting up and over the cold temps. Also from the Springfield AFD. Useless. 

>8 inches: 15-80% (lowest near MO/AR border)

Also, put me on the list of those that find the probabilities a waste of my time and confusing to the general public. 

I continue to be impressed by the remarkable consistency of the models. Of course, fine details are being worked out and changing from run to run (and model to model), but this has been locked in for several days now. Tomorrow will be inside 48 hours. 

WINTER STORM WATCHES out for the SGF CWA: 

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. There are medium to high chances
  (50-75%) of snowfall totals exceeding 5 inches.

* WHERE...Portions of southeast Kansas and central, east central,
  south central, southwest, and west central Missouri.

* WHEN...From late Monday night through late Tuesday night.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The
  hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday morning and evening
  commutes.

Doug Heady has a generalized 6-12" for much of S KS and S MO. Believes sleet may cause lower totals across OK and AR. More of that area is in the 1-3" or 3-6" band. Higher amounts closer to KS border. 

I keep waiting for the football to be yanked away, but it hasn't happened yet. 

Part (although not much) of the reason for the ICON's epic numbers is because it lays down a nice snow late tomorrow into Sunday morning, too. Snow upon snow... Things have been pretty consistent. Something has to go awry. Right?

32 minutes ago, MUWX said:

The hype for this storm is already getting out hand.  How many times over the last 5 - 10 years have been in a similar stop only to get up getting close to nothing? Feels like a lot. 

59 minutes ago, JoMo said:

Being in the bullseye 5 days out, what could go wrong? right? right?

Yep. I am being very cautious. 

I do like the trend late Saturday though. Shall see if that continues. 

12z models less favorable for weekend and next week. It is one run, but knowing our luck... haven't looked at ensembles. 

Temps continue to remain about 2-3 degrees below guidance here. I am below freezing now for the first time.

Next weekend looks like a system in the region. All of the models are on it. Otherwise, I am ready for spring. 

It is about to get very, very cold... with no snow to show for it. 

Higher snow ratios will help those on the northern fringe of the precip which does fall. 

EURO looks to be still on target. The NAM is doing its normal garbage stuff at this range. 

I am most concerned about the northern extent of the snow. That dry air can be a snow killer in these setups. 

Hi all. Been locked out of my account because I couldn't remember the password, but finally got in. Looking forward to tracking this. Looks like a nice snow for much of the area. 

If the Heady Pattern was correct, shouldn't we have seen another cold snap about now?? Just trying to figure out how all this works. Doesn't seem like there is any more winter left?

There is a significant difference between the NAM, GFS, and EURO in terms of ice accumulation beginning tomorrow through Thursday across a good chunk of especially Missouri. I am not sure what to really follow. The NAM seems to be super aggressive. The GFS keeps the freezing line way north and the EURO is in between. This makes a huge difference in temps and sensible weather. 

10 hours ago, Weatherdemon said:

NAM hammering parts of E OK Tues night into Wed with accumulating freezing rain to 1.39 inches.

And just as the NAM and GFS begin to move toward the EURO solution... it sort of changes. Will be interesting to see if the EURO's moves are a one run thing or the beginning of a new trend. I am personally okay not receiving 1"+ of ice. 

FWIW, EURO continues to stick with this solution. It hasn't wavered in several days. The GFS has trended that direction, but clears precip out quicker. 

The EURO for the past eight or so runs has been extremely consistent in putting down some scary ice totals across parts of MO/KS in the Tuesday-Wednesday time period next week (1-2" and plus in some cases of ice). None of the area offices seem to be biting much on it. Is there anything synoptically that would speak against such a setup. The GFS, for the record, has nothing at all in terms of frozen precip during this period and keeps the precip shunted mainly to the SE.