GSwizzle83

If the Heady Pattern was correct, shouldn't we have seen another cold snap about now?? Just trying to figure out how all this works. Doesn't seem like there is any more winter left?

There is a significant difference between the NAM, GFS, and EURO in terms of ice accumulation beginning tomorrow through Thursday across a good chunk of especially Missouri. I am not sure what to really follow. The NAM seems to be super aggressive. The GFS keeps the freezing line way north and the EURO is in between. This makes a huge difference in temps and sensible weather. 

10 hours ago, Weatherdemon said:

NAM hammering parts of E OK Tues night into Wed with accumulating freezing rain to 1.39 inches.

And just as the NAM and GFS begin to move toward the EURO solution... it sort of changes. Will be interesting to see if the EURO's moves are a one run thing or the beginning of a new trend. I am personally okay not receiving 1"+ of ice. 

FWIW, EURO continues to stick with this solution. It hasn't wavered in several days. The GFS has trended that direction, but clears precip out quicker. 

The EURO for the past eight or so runs has been extremely consistent in putting down some scary ice totals across parts of MO/KS in the Tuesday-Wednesday time period next week (1-2" and plus in some cases of ice). None of the area offices seem to be biting much on it. Is there anything synoptically that would speak against such a setup. The GFS, for the record, has nothing at all in terms of frozen precip during this period and keeps the precip shunted mainly to the SE. 

Yeah, it's like an ice skating rink. Trees have a nice glaze on them, too, here in Monett. Road temps are in the upper 20s. Will continue to cool overnight. 

This seems to want to be the year of the ice. Not major ice storms that cripple regions for days or weeks, but regular freezing drizzle/light freezing rain events. I try not to get too worked up about these events so far in advance, but this one is a bit different because of the prolonged nature of the event signaled on the models. Will see if they dry out as they get closer to the event, but so far there seems to be a slight uptick in amounts each time. EURO is putting down .2" of ice across much of S MO. NAM seems to concur with greater than .1" amounts. Will see I guess. Model watching continues. 

I would be worried about ice problems in NWA if I were you. 

Wound up with about 3/4" here in Monett but the roads sort of flash froze making for those horrific accident scenes all over the news and social media. 

Tomorrow's system confounds me. I will be glad when we can get it fully sampled. 

Interesting that the EURO has a stronger winter storm Tuesday/Wednesday than the GFS. That tends to lead more credence that there might be something there. Not that I want it. EURO lays down some horrific icing numbers. Of course those are just one run's numbers... but I don't want that much ice ever. 2007 was enough for me. 

What Thursday winter storm???

WOW! Poof.

45 minutes ago, StormChazer said:

Canadian and GFS showing some possible snow in NE OK/NW AR/SW MO.

I have put my faith in the GFS before only to get burned. EURO is going drier and drier each run. Develops a TN Valley winter storm instead. *sigh*

On 1/24/2018 at 12:05 PM, WhiteoutWX said:

Until we get the mean trough axis over the Rockies and not over the Mississippi nothing will change. Northwest flow is DRY for the plains in almost any month, but especially in the winter. Until that changes expect no significant precipitation over the majority of Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, and Arkansas. People looking at specific model runs showing precip here and there are ignoring the overall pattern which indeed has not changed since the beginning of November. Which is why basically every storm shown 8+ days out has disappeared or shifted east or south as it gets closer in time.

EURO trends would definitely bear this out with the Feb 1 storm. 

The news about Joel Taylor is absolutely heartbreaking!

Lock the 12z GFS in please.  

3 hours ago, JoMo said:

85 degree temp difference in 4 days. EF-1 tornado near Mt. Vernon, MO last night. 

Quite the variability here in the region. What are long term signals looking like as we move into Feb? Both EURO and GFS seem to indicate something around the 1st of Feb.

I am not sure how much stock I put in the cycle that Gary Lezak and Doug Heady are fans of, but there is some merit behind it. If so, I would imagine that February and March would give us more snow or ice setups. The arctic air would not be as deep and the storm track should lift a bit further north. That would give us some shots. That is, if the pattern is similar. I guess we will see. 

Low of -6º this morning. High may not get above 10 today. But no need to fear... storms will be arriving this weekend. 

Wound up with a 2 day total of 4.25". Latest hi-res models are trying to drop the temp between -5 and -10 across SW MO and SE KS in the snow cover. That's crazy cold!

Sorry for those who missed the snow. 

As of 10 a.m, I had 3" of new snow on top of yesterday's 1" total... so 4". Will go out again in a few to measure. With the wind picking up it is harder to measure. 

Short term hi-res models really wanting to set up a localized heavy band of snow somewhere in extreme SE KS, far NE OK, and SW MO later this morning. We will have to see where and when it materializes. 

I'll take the EURO for $1,000 please Alex!

1" here in Monett

With each run of the computer models, the snow chances (and accumulation) seem to be growing for E KS, MO, and parts of N AR. Will be interesting to watch play out. 

We may not be getting a lot of wintry weather this season, but these cold snaps are quite intense. Sitting at a balmy 11º this morning with a sub-zero wind chill.