Vicarious

4 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Discord

Not sure why the move to discord other then to gatekeep. I was never really a active poster on here but I would come at least once a day to read all the new posts and I'm sure I wasn't the only one.

3 minutes ago, Torchageddon said:

With the comparisons to the 1977 Blizzard, is it the length of time with 0 vis that is being used to benchmark? It was also a different type.

Unfortunately not for me, its been lackluster and an epic bust locally for my region however its a solid winter storm. For my lake (Huron), its annihilating Parry Sound currently with a dream band. Wish I was in Buffalo rn.

The guy I sub contract for was plowing back then and today while talking with him over the phone I asked if the conditions were like in 77. He told me the winds and lack of visibility was on par with or maybe worse then 77 but the overall impact of the storm won't nearly come close. He said back in 77 the storm took everyone by surprise for the most part which lead to so many stranded people in cars. 

Just now, MattPetrulli said:

Not from the area and casually observe significant NE snow events, so as a region that takes lake effect snow constantly, where will today-Saturday rank all time for Buffalo blizzards, let alone lake effect events? From an outside perspective, high end tropical storm conditions associated with intense snow bands parked over a major metro area for a day or 2 spells absolute disaster but I could be wrong. So overall, what will be the eventual impact and overall historic ranking of this event? 

I've pretty much struggled to see across my street for 12+ hours. If it stays this way until saturday night/sunday morning it will be compared to the blizzard of 1977 which was #1 by a pretty big margin 

I've snow plowed for almost 10 years now and this is the first time I'm completely unable to leave my house because of the conditions. Even in 2014 I managed to carefully make my way to each parking lot. I've never seen this low of visibility for this long of duration. I'm hoping for the band to push north a bit more for a little while so I can get a small window to try to get to a few places before the snow gets to out of control. 

I haven't been able to see across the street for awhile now but I still had someone call me just now asking why I haven't plowed her drive way yet. Some people............

airport now showing 16.8 

I live a few miles south of the airport and can confirm 0 visibility. I tried driving 1 block to my grandmas to plow her driveway and i drove off the street several times going only a few mph

Not looking forward to this storm as someone who does snow plowing. To anyone chasing this event please be prepared with full tanks of fuel, shovel, and a snatch strap or recovery rope 

8 hours ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Someone check me on these! From January 01 2011 - Present... the BUF office has issued a total of 7 blizzard warning "events" for the CWA (includes events east of lake ontario as well).  I am missing one of the events! 

 

1. January 2014 / Lake Effect / Impacted most of WNY, First Blizzard Warning for BUF Metro since 1993 / Ontario conditions verified but I don't believe an official blizzard warning was ever lifted for east of Onatrio.

2.  March 2014 / Synoptic / Impacted most of upstate NY winds coming of Lake Ontario / Didn't really verify if I recall correctly.

3.

4. January 2018 / Lake Effect & Wind Driven / LOVE THIS STORM! / Busted forecast, warning was issued to late, deadly thruway pile up resulted, lake band formed and completely dissipated in less than 6 hours!  I believe Ontario had a more foretasted band setup.

5. January 2019 / Lake Effect / Impacted both WNY and Tug 

6. February 2019 / Lake Effect / Impacted just areas east of Lake Ontario

7. Feb 2020 / Lake Effect / Impacted around Watertown and well South of Buffalo.  Believe there was blizzards warnings eventually off both lakes for this, don't believe Northern Erie was included however.

nov 2014?

3 hours ago, rochesterdave said:

Memorial Day is pushing it. I’d say until mid May. But it definitely ain’t over at the end of February. 

Well i have video of driving in white conditions from lake effect snow from last year mid may, not the normal but my grandma always said never plant before memorial day weekend which I still go by

15 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Looks like Oswego county got several inches last night. The colleague who lives in Oswego came to work with the remnants and said they had quite a bit.

D winter continues. Yesterday was a beautiful late winter day though.

I've learned that winter still has its share of surprises until we reach memorial day, for buffalo at least lol

15 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

That's an interesting point and well taken. It was one of the key arguments that was hotly debated in the UN IPCC's Year 2000/2001 (?) Climate Report, which was the first to ascribe a "discernable"  human influence in global temperature trends...and hence AGW was more formally born, or emerged from being almost crackpot theory.  Since then it's been rebranded as Climate Change because....that's a whole 'nuther story.

At the time, drawing on my experience an electrical engineer and mathematics background, I could see the crux of the argument, which was...if you understand instrument uncertainty and its component factors in the equation, it's usually impossible to determine exactly why (say a pressure switch setpoint) As Found setpoint varies between calibration intervals. Could be any one of several factors that amount to random variance or possibly a bias. But all we can (usually) know is that "it" changed.

The UN report concluded that temperature trends were explainable, essentially, as a bias factor (Anthropogenic Global Warming). Its not quite the same thing as an instrument setting calculation but a reasonable comparison. Back then, I never thought the UN analysis could withstand a rigorous 95/95 confidence examination (esp given underlying data quality concerns and hand waving arguments - that still exist) but i stopped following the issue rigorously once politics got more seriously involved and everyone's emotions flared.  It's become a matter of almost faith, a litmus test on both sides now. And life's too short to deal with that kind of idiocy.

Well I always looked at global warming through this lens of "uh guys we are literally changing the earths atompshere with compounds that we can scientifically show their effect". Take humans out of the equation and it makes more sense. I just really hate how the science tends to get lost behind the politics with thing like global warming. We honestly can't look at just temp trends because of the tiny sample size so we have to look at other data try and separate the variance as much as possible

in general people underestimate variance and one of the best things studying no limit holdem was teach me just how much variance you will experience and try to pick out flaws in your strategy vs the variance in outcomes. The sample size we see with winter events is pretty low which makes it insanely hard to try and separate any patterns 

the amount of bi-polar here is truly mind boggling when it comes to snow

I don't really remember the last time it was this late into October and all the yards I cut are so dry it resembles more like august. Normally I'd be fighting the weather to get everyone cut for the week but some places I haven't cut since September since we just haven't had the rain+the total sunlight per day is shrinking fast.

I got a slight drizzle in south cheektowaga with all the action staying to the west 

7 minutes ago, WNash said:

It’s brutal, I’ve gotten pinkeye from dirt and sweat getting in my eyes. People who love extremely hot weather don’t have to work in mid day sun for 40-50 hours a week.

I have had the same thing happen to me. Since I cant sleep tonight I decided to bring some old towels with me tomorrow just so i have something to  wipe my face with. Back on Tuesday I had this 3 acre lot that only gets cut every 4-6 weeks and had the wind blowing all the dirt/clippings right in my face going the one direction which made for a unbearable few hours. 

21 minutes ago, WNash said:

It’s tough, and unfortunately in about 7 to 10 days we’re likely to get enough worse heat and humidity.

I think the worst thing for me is sweat running down into my eyes, today my hat was useless after the first hour lol. 

wow that's a really interesting/crazy 

Just now, Buffalo Bumble said:

At least we’re not Phoenix AZ... I just checked the point and click to see if I could find somewhere hotter than BUF. Just a tad warm there, to the tune of 110-115 for highs the next several days. I thought with the dry heat out there the lows would drop way off into the 60’s for nocturnal relief. Not so much. Lows the next few days are 90!  Ouch. 

Doesn't sound that fun but it kind of goes with the whole living in the desert thing they have going on

I do landscaping and lawn care and today was brutal. I took breaks during the day so I stayed hydrated and just a little while ago i went to throw my stuff in the wash and noticed my jeans had massive salt stains on them just from working 8am to 3:45. I don't really complain about the heat since are winters can last awhile but I'm sick of this heat and need a break.

3 hours ago, Luke_Mages said:

ah...I thought the record of 76 was all time. Looks like we need 81 for all time.

wouldn't surprise me if it beats 81 after this next heat wave

2 hours ago, brentrich said:

Maybe lake Ontario water temperature can reach to 85 degree by August? I believe highest it was 78 degree? If that's the case, tons of lake effect snow this winter

 

with upwelling it makes it very difficult to reach those high of temps, At Rochester it's 57 right now(looking at NOAA)

Is it possible to start a new thread just for Corvid-19 for us? 

when i saw pictures of the market it started in my first thought was "yea no  shit i think i might get something just looking at a picture"

25 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

I’m interested to see how the schools play this tomorrow.  A lot of them called out the NWS and News for overhyping a rather typical snowstorm.

I thought they may pull the warnings for WNY this evening but instead they kept them going until 4pm tomorrow.  So do they close the schools again?  Would be weird sending kids to school while under an official blizzard warning... Even if it’s clear skies..??

Yeah synoptic was a bust oh well.  But BUFs gotta keep that B word under wraps. The media ate that up all night flashing blizzard warning across the screen.  Don’t want to debate the call on the warning but I didn’t really see it.  They drop that warning way to easy these days.  That’s 3 Blizzards in 3 consecutive years?  LES warning would have covered the Erie event so far perfect.  
 

 

So she feels the need to call out the NWS after they got 13 inches of snow with high winds? The NWS has to take into account the potential for dangerous weather using blizzard warnings but not over use it so when we do get one people don't just write it off. Either way it's a huge task and responsibility. I also remember NWS getting tons of shit after that huge pile up on the 90 which killed at least one person a few years ago.