jets

1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

New HRRR. Locally up to 10" over NNJ and SE NY.

We need less location specific posts. The NYC metro is larger than your backyard.

Wouldn’t shock me if higher amounts correct a bit more south since warm front is not in a hurry

Just FYI 6z nam is suppose to have me at 71-72 degrees now.  I am at 67!. Again models being over aggressive on northward push 

Euro is matching current obs?. Not buying it. Whoever is just north of front will get hammered. To say it’s no big deal is ridiculous 

Just over .40 in Flemington, NJ

14 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Let's hope it's out to lunch

 

 it makes more sense than the Nam 

38 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The NAM has been all over with the evolution of the front/surface low the last 4 runs which has made it hard to see a trend of any kind other than NYC and just NW is likely best chc for heaviest rains

I think heaviest in reality is a bit more se than Nam 12km shows. Just north and west of low path and front 

Focus on where front is not where models have heaviest precip. Euro looks like a north outlier

Focus on where front is not where models have heaviest precip

I would wait for 0z when fresh recon data comes in. Tell you one big trend and that is the euro eps. 12z had many going into nj

Trending west as recon data gets in. Boy oh boy if this trend keeps up this might end up in NJ!

Today through tomorrow am will be crucial. Looks like Henri is continuing the west to west southwest direction

The WAR May continue the west trend. This keeps up the mid Atlantic states might be in game

Theme all summer southeast Canada ridge trending stronger  and it’s extending into the Atlantic 

Be interesting to also see what happens with TD 8

If Td 8 strengthens more and more it could get a bit interesting towards the weekend 

95/108!

I will say radar looks very impressive 

Wow there are two areas of rotation approaching hunterdon

Hwrf model takes Elsa to n nj and jackpots e pa and w nj. We shall have a better idea in the next several hours. Feel the WAR will trend this baby west 

Talk about a lot of uncertainty on heaviest rain axis

93. Not buying a big cool down next weekend. Might not be 90 but I could see the humidity linger 

Bet it doesn’t get as chilly as what models are suggesting 

I’d rather have that than being a big hugger

Look at how much stronger the 50/50 low got adding more confluence 

Euro big improvement