adiabatic13

42 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Mm.. I don't know about that. 

I tend to disagree.   warm ENSO pattern orientations in this era?    I can't condone that.  

We seem to be getting it hammered over our heads, though still can't feel the knocks of pain because of underlying stubborn neurotic obsession and drug lusting for this cinema/modeled -related cryo dystopian thrill...  eh hm, blocks that truth from getting in, but, shut off the -EPO/quasi -EPOs, and the we flip too warm for said circuitry of excitement...  really fast. 

That tendency to 'not have cold in bank' ( so to speak ) is/has been getting more obvious at our latitude.  Probably duh  duh duh dunnnnnn   do to CC.  

Nope...eyes roll. Argue.  bash...troll...  come on ...bring it on... But, you throw a warm +PNA variation into this thang and sorry...game over.  You gotta have the cold source.  

Some hyperbole here, okay  ... but large perspectives get what I mean. 

Responded with the same in the NYC subforum yesterday afternoon in response to PB's MJO reliance; i.e. though more broadly, in that the way the atmos. has responded historically may not be the way the atmos. responds now that its background radiation has increased, there's recent evidence to postulate that loss of albedo and ocean warming in tha arctic has now hit a threshold where "spillover heat" is available to rapidly muck up the northern hemisphere's winter, this has been evident all cold season across much of Scandinavia, Siberia and East Asia and to a lesser degree across N America, but the mod over there deleted, probably because my frustration was on display...this is however exactly why the rest of the world's climate scientists are systematically disengaging from their colleagues in the good ole USA, nearly impossible to have a rational scientific discussion in this environment where the fundamental laws of thermodynamics are now considered just one "opinion"

14 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not sure what the temperatures are like so far this month but ... anyone else get the sense this month so far and in the models is pretty much a paragon October ?

The irony there is that we are experiencing epitome month 10 when the expense of the freak blizzards west and expanded Hadley cell exciting weird multi-phasic cyclone types pretty much in every direction SE of Long Island over the west Atlantic... both of which are pretty fantastic SD deals...

The one over the Atlantic is less appreciated and under the radar in terms of significance but that's a highly unusual look.

 

Some of us do notice actually, almost posted yesterday about the ridiculosity of the 48 hr, 850 mb projection for the N Atlantic...every feature shifted north of where it "should" be by about 1200 miles.

18 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

We can't ...

His use is/was a common vocal-contextual trope - "human beings" in that context doesn't mean were damning all to hell for some unredeemable limitation... It usually means 'the majority'?

I don't have a problem with that based upon evidences.  "People" (same idea..) need examples ... ones that appeal, directly, to one of the five major senses before they believe any kind threat is real ( more of psychological take there but a good one, because the individuals integrate the modes of the mean).

If they don't get that tactility, they 'tend to' be like that typical water-cooler head nods and lip service politeness thing - "yeah yeah, right - sounds true. Interesting"  

I agree that it shouldn't be as assessment applicable of ALL who walk under shade or sun but I don't believe that was the intent ... if he was precise, which titling contexts seldom are, he might have said people too often tend not to be wired for -

I agree that people have trouble with larger specter ( if they even can see it for that matter) of what the issue is about - it's almost like they hear what it will mean, and since they don't get why, and don't directly sense the evidences ( above ), they knee jerk deny.  The 'whys' requires component analytic decomposition into constituency aspects, such that one can then see how it all fits together -..  heh, not many folks engage in that sort of mathematical processing as a general rule. That's part of the "untenable" nature of it right there, tho. Some can, few do, save one or two... and they get ignored.  Humanity ignoring it's own pathway to destruction might be a road paved long before modern treks ever walked - it happened when evolution chose the great brain experiment.  

Being a bit spacious if not even specious-for-fun in that description, admittedly.  But still, that's what is meant by not wired to see it. If we were born with a gene for it, we would be.  Most have to study math and complain while doing it...and are happy to have survived their B.A..  To that end, that is what Dr. Gupta is talking about - it's not as tenable to the commoner as we ( unfortunately) need it to be, and even many who rank "above" the hoi polloi for that matter are either having problems doing so, or ...   

..that's the moral/ethic arm of the denier stuff.  Which is related to your monetary interest thing.  Some are just flat out self-centered to the point where they fight is really against god - speaking euphemistically. They are really pissed at the finality of life and flip the bird to reality and the universe for ending theirs at the end of 80 or 90 years if they're lucky, so they're burning all their bridges and partying one way or the other..  That's all rhetoric for this "it won't happen in my life-time" mantra you come across once in a while. 

Education, education, education, not the kind that teaches you facts and hard skills, but the kind that teaches you how to think, reason and look deeply, that's the only hope for our species. Until proven otherwise I will assume that intelligent life arises quite often in our universe, it seems designed for life (in so many particulars: i.e. gravity, the specific properties of H2O, oxidation-reduction, etc...not sure if these imply a sense of agency there); at any rate, most if not all self-aware species I'm guessing "progress" to precisely the point where humankind presently sits and because technological evolution inherently outpaces biological evolution for multi-cellular critters, they, in essence, commit species-wide suicide.

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

I can't wait to start burning heating oil in early October. Yeah!

this, especially considering I was still burning it in mid-June...while the rest of the planet roasts, 40N 70W is the new Iceland (even under record breaking ridges, what junk)

58 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

How come nobody is talking about the record breaking blizzard in Montana! 

58 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

How come nobody is talking about the record breaking blizzard in Montana! 

cause we're all members of a vast left-wing commie conspiracy to take away your cookies, but you already knew that from the intraweb

Just now, NJwx85 said:

3k MAM soundings show that most of the atmosphere below 850mb is below freezing and that at the surface it’s only 33 where it’s showing plain rain. That’s even as late as 08z. I would be very hesitant to base a fotrecast off precip type graphics and clown maps. Yes with a track that tucked in it’s going to warm up but I think it’s after a signifact front end snow/ice event. Especially N&W of the city.

That 3K MAM model is the best! How much milk is it showing for my morning coffee? Seriously though, this board will become less and less readable as GCC takes away more and more of our winter. That’s a prediction you can count on.

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Ha ha... don't be too convinced by my snark - I'm actually trolling and having fun with it in the spirit of commiseration... 

I know "some" of that is true... at least for me...  I used to get really down or up based upon weather channel screw ups when I was kid - that's how I know to recognize some of that going on in here.  But it's pretty harmless either way... I think I'd rather have people be "strung out" over a fubar modeling era than same way over a Fentanyl

Oh, without a doubt, weather fanatics are a harmless bunch, even to themselves (with the exception of the odd storm chaser)

39 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

guys... really... you drift.  You seem to acknowledge inherent limitations and detraction ...then, an hour later, creep back in and get enthusiastic euphoria tenors going ... like spontaneously.  ha. wow. 

I get it... life is boring for many.  They put stock in this shit because of the mystery of dystopian awe and all that is intriguing and gives a kind of high that fills said voids in many way ... and one gets addicted to that. So these models don't show it...and the loss really does act like addictive withdrawal frenzied "carpet surfing" ...lookin' for nuganshards in the model.  that's hilarious.    

Unfortunately, it's going to take longer than an hour to change the outlook appreciably... Just some advice - wouldn't take much stock in GEFs anything.   And I admit ...some of that is my personal opinion based upon 'too much gradient' and so forth.  But this trend suffered for canceling prospect has been stunningly proficient - what's the definition of insanity? Doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result??  something like that...  I for one choose sanity and I'm letting shit ride the rest of the way. 

I tell you ... most seasons I prematurely despise winter by Feb ~ 20th or so ...  I may check out even before that if said trend proves supernatural rapey ... nice!

I'd actually like to conduct a study re "substance abusers" and "weather watchers," extreme atmospheric events do seem to relieve emotional pain for a portion of the population in the same way that certain substances fill the spiritual void many in the postmodern west are experiencing, the behavior profiles are eerily identical, pretty cool stuff

I lurk here often, but post seldom, as I recognize in myself the above mentioned trigger/feedback loop

3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

https://www.weather.gov/marfc/NJPrecipitationMTD

No, most of NJ at least has been below thus far.

The red on that map doesn't mean you need rain, it is not a drought map, there is no drought anywhere within 1000 miles of East Brunswick

I rely on autumn to provide me with some decent dry, warmish hiking weather...this year has been the most unusable of any of the last 40 that I have lived here. Almost enough to get me seriously thinking of relocating. The outdoors keeps me sane, if this is the new normal then I'll soon be running in circles yelling and waving my arms over my head.

Flo has managed to stall about 40 miles east of shelf waters...lucky girl. Her unwinding is likely delayed until she exits the Gulf Stream.

8 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said:

extrapolation over the last 4 hours. Less than 10 mph and definitely not gaining latitude

Your map actually shows it gaining latitude; for Flo to not be gaining latitude, extrap would have to be parallel to the lines of latitude on that map.

Tonight's burst of deep convection should rebuild a solid eyewall one last time prior to shelf water disrupting Flo's heat engine; I'm going out on a limb and will forecast Cat 4 for a few dropsondes tomorrow morning...and the unmodeled moderate shear appears to be relaxing as well.

5 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

A blue Rockport, TX shed would suffice though.

Yes, that shed was incredibly tough; the manufacturer should market them as storm shelters.

2 minutes ago, Chinook said:

Most recent recon data plot from Maria (Tropical tidbits data plots) shows the pressure may be closer to 910mb than 925mb. 914.6mb on the other zoomed in data plot. What will the official center fix pressure? 916mb? Is this lower than Hurricane Irma had at any point? I think it's close. Did Irma get to 915 or 916 mb?

910.9 extrap for Irma I believe (don't quote me though)

I realize this is a hobbyist site, but at critical emergency management planning times such as we're in this afternoon with regard to Maria, it might be helpful to have a pro forecast thread. There are a lot of guesses being posted here with authority that new eyes in the VI and PR might not understand are derived solely from "weenie" hopes and dreams. I even saw someone state that Maria would be landfalling as 130 mph storm; while that's not outside the realm of possibility there's no meteorological evidence for that forecast at this time. 

Incidentally, ERC seems a hip term around here, so understand that until we see a weakening trend with Maria's strong inner ring of convection an ERC is NOT imminent. 

Edit: I didn't mean for that to sound overly critical, but as a weather event, Maria's forecast is unique in that it's people's actions over the next several hours that will determine whether they live or die tonight. I'd hate for someone in PR to start spreading the word in his local community that the media is overly hyping Maria as he just read on AmericanWeather that the storm will weaken a lot before the morning.

A little contraction of the eyewall beginning, along with cooling cloud tops...looks like we have an intensifying system again this afternoon. Hoping for a dual wind max in the upcoming reconn package.

edit: once again a very unusual ERC-less Atl storm, though what would have transpired last night had Dominica not been in her way can be speculated upon 

There have been no verified photos of the damage on Dominica that we're aware of yet (and we're monitoring), we're expecting some helicopter footage to come in this evening, but expect total destruction, outside of some pockets of protected geographic nooks.

For St. Croix, Vieques, Culebra and San Juan, Maria's projected track is the worst Cat 5 track conceivable; simply put, it has not occurred before in the modern era, impacts on San Juan itself would be catastrophic if it plays out as NHC is projecting (all of those locations experience the NE semicircle of the core, with San Juan and Culebra never feeling the slight reprieve of the eye itself). 

edit: Many photos and videos being posted here are not of Dominica, not sure why anyone would be trying to mislead on that, can't see how that is to anyone's benefit.

1 hour ago, Jebman said:

This is absolutely horrific beyond words.

Except that Maria made landfall during the night, unless Dominica has a special midnight sun 

I'll go for 150kt min at reconn, they don't look much better than this and it's a tight core

NHC intensity estimate is much too low, Dominica will experience damage on par with Irma in BVI, hope Dominica's much larger population is aware that the strongest hurricane in the island's history is on her doorstep...just look at the trapeziodal eye, very very impressive