rainsucks

2 hours ago, Baum said:

isn't that slightly above normal for Chicago area?

ORD is currently running a +2.4 departure and will likely finish around +3, good for a top 15 warmest April on record. That's a bit more than just "slightly above" imo.

7 minutes ago, winterwx01 said:

It's harder and harder to see below normal months. Could you image July coming in with -5.

that actually happened not too long ago in 2014 when ORD finished right at -5. But yeah, hard to imagine that happening now.

2 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

I suppose if a typical April is record-breaking heat?

the incessant downplaying of warmth on this board is really starting to get old.

1 minute ago, Baum said:

it's been a typical April.

nah, he's right. It's been a notably warm and wet April across the region. Though northern Illinois seems to be a relative cool spot this month for some reason. 

DCA: +1.7

NYC: +1.5

BOS: +1.0

ORD: +2.0

ATL: +1.5

IAH: +1.3

DEN: +1.5

PHX: 0.0

SEA: +1.0

1 hour ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Model consistency is very low next week and beyond.  They are showing everything from continued active to blocked-up cold and dry, with wild swings from run to run.

I really don't understand what's tripping up the models. Can't ever recall this type of inconsistency before, very strange.

On 4/21/2024 at 7:45 PM, Powerball said:

Sadly, pretty impressive for what some declared to be cold shot overdone by forecast guidance.

Although a new record wasn't technically set due to a midnight high of 63*F, DFW spent much of the daylight hours yesterday in the upper 40s & lower 50s. The official record minimum high was 53*F.

Hopefully, after today, we're done with the 50s/60s until next "Winter."

I never made any claims about this past weekend's (short-lived) cold shot being overdone. The one we're about to see, however, was 100% overdone by guidance (in both intensity AND duration), which I made very clear last week. Regardless, people shouldn't be complaining about this April as it's been quite nice for the most part. Unlike 2018 when nearly the entire month was stuck in a wintry pattern.

10 hours ago, madwx said:

You are right about that. The Euro AIFS has been trending warmer with each run for next week

yep, there's been a clear warming trend for sure. Still receive a weenie from a useless poster for being objective, though.

4 hours ago, madwx said:

After this weekend and the one middle of next week I think we should be done with cold shots after that 

I'm not even convinced yet that next week's will pan out as currently modeled by guidance. I'm not saying it won't, but the models continue to overdo the intensity of cold shots time and time again, so I'm a bit skeptical.

8 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

bust

trolling needs to be more subtle than that, dude

On 3/28/2024 at 9:14 AM, rainsucks said:

Probably won't see any extreme warmth for the first half of the month, but you can't deny that it will be solidly above average.

yep, comfortably above average as expected, with the past seven days being very warm across the region.

unreal weather for mid-April

would’ve been close to the record high at ORD today if it weren’t for the lake breeze.

8 hours ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Extended looks to be seasonal or slightly above. No significant cold to speak of, green up will be off to the races. 

 

looks well above average IMO, possibly even flirting with record warmth at times.

On 3/28/2024 at 2:53 PM, michsnowfreak said:

It doesnt matter if its cold or warm or anything in between. Its all about skycover that day.

couldn't care less about the eclipse tbh, just looking forward to the warmth.

Probably won't see any extreme warmth for the first half of the month, but you can't deny that it will be solidly above average.

Looking to be another nice month overall, with models once again trending much warmer in the extended.

at least it's looking likely that the day of the eclipse will be quite mild.

7 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

it's bad folks

horrific

DCA: +3.5

NYC: +3.7

BOS: +3.5

ORD: +3.5

ATL: +2.5

IAH: +2.1

DEN: +2.4

PHX: +1.0

SEA: +1.5

15 hours ago, Jonger said:

Flint running +15 on the month.

Will we beat 2012?

no shot at that, but top 5 warmest March is certainly in play for many.

5 hours ago, dmc76 said:

1-2 day cold pattern. 

ALL long-range modeling has been severely cold biased for quite some time now and cannot be trusted. bluewave has made some very informative posts on why this is the case and what can be done to improve the accuracy of long-range forecasting going forward.

until something changes in the Pacific, we’re not going to have a cold pattern lock into place for any extended period of time, sorry.

44 minutes ago, dmc76 said:

I’ll believe this nonsense when it actually happens. 

yeah, it’s truly been out of control this season.