MJV

Forgive me. LOL I'm nearly 60 yrs old---but now that I read the MOU---

I only logon during the hurricane season now---because this is where I live---about 25 ENE of Naples FL.  

I don't claim to be much of anything---but if you see my profile---I DID MY TIME --- with the USAF and NWS. In fact I supervised a lead met that currently works at NWS MIA and a lead @ TAFB. Good kids and diligent workers. Think nothing but the best of them. Quality individuals. 

Background---NHC and JTWC. They never liked me. LOL Basically, they don't care for the why question. And IMHO, too bad because they could've looked better if they'd listened to me back then. Dooh. I can say that now---in retrospect. But if you throw stones at a glass house---ANYTIME during that career. Duh. But IF (in my case) you get it RIGHT---they tolerate you.

Just recently went to the Baltic on a cruise and the RUSSIANS almost didn't let me in their country. I exclaimed..."Dude, I'm 59 years old. really?" They knew more about what I did for the USA than Americana does. It's all good, really. So proud and blessed to be part of the best country on Earth right now! But is was a little unnerving that they knew what I DID or USE TO DO.

That said---for anyone who actually has read what I'm saying or have said. I am NEVER being anything but REAL. My experiences with some of these folks --- who work hurricane forecasts are LAUGHABLE. NEVER am I telling something that is speculation--it is what I EXPERIENCED and had to live through. If it offends and/or intimidates anyone---please forgive me. There IS someone who judges us all---and I honestly can say--I am no threat to YOU.

My humble and clear conversations--

Best Regards---MJV

I'm disappointed but not surprised---how the "first with the worst" mentality "pervades" and attempts to 'persuade others' when the Atlantic season is so quiet---and the first decent cyclone of the season has developed.

Last evening---it was the weather channel (I won't even use caps to acknowledge them anymore) who showed a deterministic run of the ECMWF out to day 5. Shame on them. That didn't help to qualm the mild hysteria that is pervasive in southwest Florida (IMHO).

I"M soooo glad I retired almost 3 years ago after a 9-year stint at WPC. 

For whatever it's worth, the NHC discussion typifies what I dealt wit  my last 4-5 years---The NHC forecaster 'thinks" it could do pretty much anything. Huh? Really? After 4 days of runs chasing the system (now expected to be a cat4) do you really suddenly think the east coast is FREE and CLEAR?.  Yes, Mr Avila. I'm sure in your infinite wisdom the eye may actually track to YOUR exact location (from A to Z) in 24 hours... BUT no mention of northern quadrant swell, wind wave...wind, etc. NOTHING. I can't imagine what that conference call was like today on the medium range desk at WPC. 

I write as I listen to --- For the Summer

by Ray LaMontagne

PS---17.48 inches for rain this August

Regards from Ave Maria FL

Mike Vojtesak

Last observation from Ave Maria on this passing system --- before signing off for the day. We never did achieve tropical storm force winds or gusts here --- and have received a total of 0.67" of rainfall (as of 415pm). Light rain at times and winds at/below 15mph between 4pm-425pm EDT. 

Kudos to Jakkel138 for his 1753Z RECON wind plot. That was very useful real-time information --- pertinent to the discussion at the time. Best Regards MJV

When I worked in Guam---we handled at least a half dozen of these --- faster-moving tropicals. Plenty of multi-layered vortices rotating around a broad but variable depth 850-500mb layer circulation.  From time to time---the mid-level 'swirl' deepens then a burst of convection ejects away and surface becomes outflow dominant for a time.  

That's a nice display---and visual. Rather tight and tiny circulation. 

In Ave Maria, we just reached and past peak intensity with the rain band to the northeast of the circulation center. Picked up another .20 in last 30 minutes but my winds were due easterly at ~13G27kt I can envision the wind radii---if closed is so small. Agree. the surface winds at all the surface sites around sw FL do not support  much needed inflow at the surface ---in the eastern quadrant of the mid-level circulation. It's trying it's best, no doubt.

In Ave Maria, @ 26.31N 81.45W the rainfall total is 0.18" with winds that didn't reach TD levels here (a gust to 21 mph at a wx underground station 3 miles se of me --- Heller FL) . As of 1pm EDT...we are now observing filtered sunshine. As much as I think the national media means well---I wish they would convey what the facts are --- i.e. what the first RECON flight found so far---no sniff of a surface circulation.  There is a swirl in the 850-500mb layer---per radar and satellite but it's that fast forward motion that is going to disappoint those of the 'first with the worst' mindset in the short term.  Wish we had more rainfall from Tropical Wave Gordon that was LASHING (as the media describes) --- south Florida!