MJV

Howdy!! It's been awhile. I'm certainly removed from my 'job' but like to keep the weather watch 'flow' going now and then.  This sort of reminds me of the early 2000s when I worked in NW Calif and the summers (June and July) were cold and breezy. 

This "wet season" has started out strangely --- and now 7 years into this tropical savannah climate SW FL lifestyle --- I'm impressed by the subtle differences from season to season. I'm at 1.15" into a season (June) that tells me 8-9" is a normal June rainfall month. By July 4th -- our ponds at Panther Run GC (NE Collier county FL) --- are usually full. AM CURIOUS though ---  can we get where we should be in the next 3 weeks?  I'm not complaining --- my Key Lime and Calamansi trees , Gardenias and Hibiscus are loving it right now.

My opinion only here --- when in an El Nino year --- 'signature' --- I'm feeling a soft hurricane season for us (for SW FL).  I like the idea because of what I see along the west coast and downstream --- and too much persistent longwave troughing along 80W longitude. The warm SSTs in the easter Atlantic will get all the "climate change" headlines --- but nothing will reach us --- from the south that is (Cuba and Jamaica). That's my weather watch 'danger zone' and all clear forecast!!!  Normally wouldn't even get the wx watch desk fired up until mis-August but I'm calling it now. LOL Regards MJV

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Hopefully we can put a bow on this wet season now--- Eta passed by last night with good rainfall (3.04 inches) in the past 48 hours (7am Sat to 7am Mon). Have another .85 in the gauge as of this writing. No real issues with the winds here in Ave Maria---stayed in the 20-30 mph all day yesterday---and I saw KAPF and KIMM with gusts in the 38-40mph range.

NHC did a good job with this system---especially with the strange storm track. WPC did well within its scope on the rainfall totals too. 

My wet season totals in 2020 were helter-skelter overall. May 9.36", June 6.96", July 9.95", August 5.97", September 12.44" and October 4.29".  Signing out until next summer. Regards MJV

Howdy! The weather window has arrived a couple of weeks early --- for southwest FL I guess it's time to start looking at things. So far this wet season --- rainfall has been consistent if not abundant here in 'inland' Collier county. In May (9.36"), June (6.76"), July so far (8.90"). Usually wait until the "I" storm--- so it's early. Two observations--- am bias towards the folks at WPC for any real day 5-7 guidance since they sincerely do a A+ weather watch for anything headed for the CONUS. And (2) the NHC DISCUSSION today---pulled out a long-used phrase today---one that tells me they don't have a clue---  "users should remember" ...

When they do that --- oh boy. LOL We already knew that you guys can't get 20% of the forecast close beyond 3 days ---a LONG time ago---let alone 12 hours out ---so WHY reminds us. Mind you, I really have had sooooo many experiences in the past with them as a forecaster (but I don't forecast anymore so I can easily be brushed off by them as a ______ ( you fill in the blank).

But we do live in the greatest country in the world, and I can STILL express my humble opinion and critique that falls on deaf ears. Which is what I just did.  Thank the Lord that I STILL have that option in today's world. Anyway, I'm going to keep tabs on things going forward until we head for Montana (for my dear niece's wedding).

PS...My inclination is to throw out the EC_and give some love to the GEFS/NAEFS for this particular "I" storm scenario. The "G" storm was over-hyped (we have to mention TWC here) --- and so far south latitude wise but I don't get the opportunity anymore to do a "weather watch" AND I really don't WANT to (tongue-in-cheek).

Best Regards Mike Vojtesak

signing off until next August. Only had 0.96" for the month of September. It actually felt like the wet season came to an end after Dorian passed by---

Back online for the duration of the hurricane WINDOW. Not much new going on around here---and we hope it'll continue to be a tranquil 2018 hurricane season across south Florida.  I see and read some of the build-up amongst the national media---that seem to be 'chomping at the bit' --- with hints of organization out in the day +7 to day +10 time frame. The "first with the worst" thought process and mindset gets old for me personally. Fortunately,  our local TV weather guys seem to be very wise about mitigating the hype. Suppose we could use a little more rain though---am down a good amount from last year's 'wet season'.  2018 rainfall --- May 6.65 June 8.02 July 7.11 and August 6.98 or 28.76" for the season . Our 2017 May-Aug rainfall total 45.24". 

So a few SE-to NW-moving mid-level disturbances ---passing overhead --- would be helpful!

Regards from northeast Collier county FL

We are all safe and back 100% to pre-Irma conditions. Our community experienced the eastern eyewall for the entire duration of Irma's northward trek through southwest FL. A total of 3-4 hours. Post-Andrew construction was largely untouched by these tremendous winds, but 1000s of live oaks were downed. Ave Maria's water treatment plant held firm and we never lost pressure. We had no flooding of residences. Unfortunately, others in wood-framed housing around us (all the smaller towns along US29 and state route 82) in Collier and Lee counties are in great need of assistance! Power was back in 50-60% of the residences in Immokalee as of Friday afternoon. People are streaming from all parts of Florida to help with the cleanup and restoration.

Enjoying the quiet life in Collier county FL. Look forward now---to the start of hurricane season---down our way. Just getting setup with the account.