cardinalland

every single site in the nyc micronet is at 99+ right now. 3 99F locations and the remaining 18 locations are at 100+.

Just now, Sundog said:

Back down to 99 for me after briefly going over 100

i don't think so lol, i don't have a station now but most of the ones near me are at 99 or 100

KNYC hits 99. honestly i'm in the neighborhood and I think that's p accurate for our high so far. highest temp at the park since 2012.

it's clouded up here in manhattan. i think we're done heating for today at about 96F near me. see you back here tomorrow

data from new haven airport KHVN. sea breeze has arrived there already.

jfk currently 90/79 with a heat index of 106. and it’s not even 9am yet

26 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Tony what was the high on August 16, did it stay in the 90s?

 

high of 86F, low of 74F

27 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

meh that 102 peak and 8 straight days of 95+ from 1944 really stands out, when you compute the average highs of both how do they compare?

Incidentally both 1944 and 1988 are part of the 11 year solar cycle (as were 1955, 1966, 1977, 1999, 2010).

 

Aug 1944 had an average high of 88.0F, Aug 1988 had an average high of 87.0F

15/6/3

I had some free time today and decided to correlate Atlantic ACE with temperatures around the world for the month of May (which, over oceans, roughly correspond with sea surface temperatures.) One can see a strong positive influence from sea surface temperatures across the Tropical Atlantic, as well as the East Atlantic, Labrador Sea (hmm) and tropical West Pacific/Maritime Continent. Now there's definitely a lot of noise in here, but I found it helpful for my analysis. I also produced temperature correlation coefficients for number of TS/H/MH (didn't differ too much from this) and precipitation correlation coefficients (pretty much just noise, no trend.)

my analysis...

Factors in favor of a more intense hurricane season:

- warm Caribbean and waters surrounding Florida

- warm West Pacific and Maritime Continent

- negative PDO

- positive OHC anomalies around Caribbean and loop current

Factors in favor of a less intense hurricane season:

- a cool Tropical East Atlantic

- some modelling showing convergence aloft over Atlantic during hurricane season

Slightly above average sounds right to me. Things aren't screaming hyperactive like 2024 but the factors are slightly in favor of more storms. I'm feeling more homegrown seasons this season... not so many Cape Verde long trackers. Maybe near average ACE but slightly above average storm numbers. I'll write a storm # prediction in the thread at some point.

just got to stand on my porch saying "we needed this"

LFG

i think we should spring forward 3 hours when DST begins and stay there

32 minutes ago, Northof78 said:

I wonder if there ever has been a winter in recent times that has been below or @ normal temperatures in each of the winter months (D,J,F) and also in the aggregate for the entire time period, where we have also seen below average snowfall. 

I cannot think of one. 

It used to be if you could predict overall temperature anomaly of the winter you would predict snowfall as well....not this one

 

69-70 had 25.6" snow, 76-77 had 24.5" snow with 3 BN months. but that was barely below the mean of 25.7", as opposed to the 50% of mean we've gotten so far

52 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

We got the cold here and a bunch of small events but couldn't get the big one.    Hopefully later in March torches!   

i'm ready for a march 2012 style torch now

still drizzling at 33 here which seems to be enough to produce more rime ice. also i was walking around new haven today and the puddles are giant, like up to 6" deep and covering half of the road, so tonight's freeze may be an issue :/

snowpack is cement now lol

brutal

still 33F in new haven and there's been serious ice riming. trees are incredibly flaccid

i went to get takeout about 20 minutes ago and measured 2” in new haven with fat flakes (meaning sleet imminent). still fat flakes falling, but i think i hear a little sleet mixing in now.

about 1.7” here in new haven. still snowing, but by the looks of it we don’t have much longer before the changeover.

seems like 0.75"ish here in new haven. but it seems we're not long from being slotted

1 hour of moderate snow in new haven. coating on all surfaces.

flakes falling in new haven. game on at 29F

i think i get 2-3 up here but the rain immediately after is gonna wash much of the pack away so it’s less exciting

4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

AI?  Do people really take it seriously at this point?   Do we have much in the way of history as far as accuracy?

it's gotten hyped by tech bros as "solving weather" but now 2 years out it feels like just another model to add to the pile... and sometimes it's right and sometimes it's kinda off

snain here at this point

no more accumulations, just gonna eventually turn to rain and start melting things a bit