cardinalland

In other news, 2026 has now surpassed 1983. Now, 2026 is the season that has produced the second least ACE in the satellite era. We'll see if that holds or if some late season storm ups the ACE further. In an interesting parallel, the EPAC is to date at its second highest ACE recorded in the season, but it should soon reach #1.

At the risk of contributing further to a pointless argument:

Maximum sustained winds should be the most intense (sustained) winds measured anywhere in the hurricane. The strongest winds are probably going to be offshore or right on the beach. What are the odds that there's an anemometer at that exact location? Then, there's the issue that the power could be out when the highest winds hit, and of course, winds of this intensity aren't exactly gentle to meteorological equipment.

The maximum sustained winds I've seen recorded with this storm on land is 92.8 mph, which is 88% of NHC's max sustained winds at landfall and is nearly Category 2 strength. That's about as good as you're gonna get since we don't have recon over land to drop a sonde over the exact point with the most intense winds.

Anyways, I'm now seeing nearly 700k customers without power in the region, I hope the recovery goes smoothly

140k customers without power in the region and climbing fast (was 100k 15 minutes ago)

This wouldn't warrant an upgrade, but the data shows a storm that's pretty robust. 150 mph winds at 925mb-938mb, which is about 800-1200ft above the surface

110 mph surface winds in the west eyewall

3 minutes ago, mob1 said:

Radar (and the microwave pass posted above) did show some signs of degrading and possibly starting an EWRC, but radar has since improved. 

 

Not sure about the microwave pass but radar improving is mostly an artifact of the storm entering radar range. Beam height (per RadarScope) is still about 30,000 ft near the South eyewall so it's just entering the range where the whole eyewall can be seen

2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Recon doesn't show degradation. I'm not sure what people are seeing. It's still generating very strong convection near center. It looks very steady to me.

This hurricane must have body insecurity issues with everything that people have said about it in the last couple of days

It looks pretty normal for a Category 3 hurricane, and unfortunately does not appear to be weakening yet

Eye has continued to develop and clear.

Looks like a Cat 1-2 hurricane, which is what it is

It’s passing over some slightly cooler SSTs right now

It appears the eye is starting to clear

22 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Technically according to this image, it was a H by 0Z on 10/8 in 1905 or 7PM EST on 10/7. So, that means 2026 was a little later if you go by this:

I stand corrected. Thank you

37 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I thought we tied the record of 10/8 from 1851.

The hurricane was declared as such at 11:30pm eastern on 10/7 after a Hurricane Hunters pass. So it’s a little dicey.

Of course there’s a good chance 1905 had a hurricane earlier in their season that we didn’t detect

8 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

But this is the latest forming first hurricane of season ever?

1905 was a day later (10/7 at 11:30pm vs 10/8)

In the satellite era, yes, by far (previous record was 9/11)

Look at all those hot towers

Would agree on a C1 landfall being most likely right now. Reaching C3+ over the open ocean beforehand looks very attainable.

It’s supposed to pass right over the loop current. And the tail end of a trough is often quite favorable. There’s a lot of moving pieces but a hurricane landfall looks plausible at the moment.

This is the most Niño Niño that ever Niño’d.

3 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Air was so think and hot in 1995 you could choke.  Never before or since have I felt it that hot and humid.  Local heat indexes reached 120.  I think EWR was over 100 degrees with a DP of 80 if I remember correctly.  Worst heat I've ever experienced.

IIRC there was a 130 heat index at Newark that day

2 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

The Park hit 100!

This feels like the end of Knicks game 5

This one usually tracks right with KNYC, so expecting a 100 at 2pm.

This feels like Knicks game 5

KNYC: 98F at 12:51pm

KLGA at 99

I’m watching right in front of the coastal front for that little compressional heating impact

Meanwhile I’m following from Iowa which is also under an extreme heat warning. What a week.

I’m calling it

KNYC hits 100 today