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cardinalland

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Posts posted by cardinalland

  1. 26 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

    Tony what was the high on August 16, did it stay in the 90s?

     

    high of 86F, low of 74F

    27 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

    meh that 102 peak and 8 straight days of 95+ from 1944 really stands out, when you compute the average highs of both how do they compare?

    Incidentally both 1944 and 1988 are part of the 11 year solar cycle (as were 1955, 1966, 1977, 1999, 2010).

     

    Aug 1944 had an average high of 88.0F, Aug 1988 had an average high of 87.0F

     

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  2. MayTempCCACE.png.5a1d3a892452ef91f0dea917bb30b18a.pngI had some free time today and decided to correlate Atlantic ACE with temperatures around the world for the month of May (which, over oceans, roughly correspond with sea surface temperatures.) One can see a strong positive influence from sea surface temperatures across the Tropical Atlantic, as well as the East Atlantic, Labrador Sea (hmm) and tropical West Pacific/Maritime Continent. Now there's definitely a lot of noise in here, but I found it helpful for my analysis. I also produced temperature correlation coefficients for number of TS/H/MH (didn't differ too much from this) and precipitation correlation coefficients (pretty much just noise, no trend.)

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  3. my analysis...

    Factors in favor of a more intense hurricane season:

    - warm Caribbean and waters surrounding Florida

    - warm West Pacific and Maritime Continent

    - negative PDO

    - positive OHC anomalies around Caribbean and loop current

    Factors in favor of a less intense hurricane season:

    - a cool Tropical East Atlantic

    - some modelling showing convergence aloft over Atlantic during hurricane season

     

    Slightly above average sounds right to me. Things aren't screaming hyperactive like 2024 but the factors are slightly in favor of more storms. I'm feeling more homegrown seasons this season... not so many Cape Verde long trackers. Maybe near average ACE but slightly above average storm numbers. I'll write a storm # prediction in the thread at some point.

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  4. 32 minutes ago, Northof78 said:

    I wonder if there ever has been a winter in recent times that has been below or @ normal temperatures in each of the winter months (D,J,F) and also in the aggregate for the entire time period, where we have also seen below average snowfall. 

    I cannot think of one. 

    It used to be if you could predict overall temperature anomaly of the winter you would predict snowfall as well....not this one

     

    69-70 had 25.6" snow, 76-77 had 24.5" snow with 3 BN months. but that was barely below the mean of 25.7", as opposed to the 50% of mean we've gotten so far

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  5. still drizzling at 33 here which seems to be enough to produce more rime ice. also i was walking around new haven today and the puddles are giant, like up to 6" deep and covering half of the road, so tonight's freeze may be an issue :/

    snowpack is cement now lol

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