RockabilyJunior

I'm getting really sick of this Baltimore dry air. On Sunday, I was under the radar the whole day as it snowed all around me while almost nothing fell. Today, same thing. Very light snow just started in downtown Batimore.

2 minutes ago, Fozz said:

Where did you get those numbers from?

https://weatherspark.com/

19 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

To keep things in perspective:  If you look at the top DC winter storms:  Eight from late January into mid February (1899, 1922, 1966, 1999 (ice), 2000, 2010, 2011, 2016), Three have fallen on President's Day (1979, 1983, 2003); and one in March.  I don't give up until March 14 (Superstorm'93).  

Agreed!

A climo reminder for the area (Baltimore)

The probability of precipitation falling as snow on Dec 14 is 4%, and on March 14 it's 4%. So if you were hoping for snow in Dec you should be hoping for snow in March.

Right now we are basically at peak climo. In Baltimore at least, when there is precipitation around Jan 20, 13% of the time it's snow. We are in a slightly colder period right now, so maybe we've bumped our chances of snow to 20% for the weekend. That's what I tell myself every time there is a storm to track. We would expect on average that one of these storms coming our way over the next week or two will deliver some snow again.

16 minutes ago, Ji said:

we are getting close to Ians sun angle season so we better come up big between Feb 1 and PD weekend. For me after, PD weekend, winter is pretty much over. You have to have a really special storm after that to get me excited. Most of our March storms end up unproducing

The last few years (March 2015, 2017, 2018) have been among the best winter months of the whole season. Especially for snow, but even for cold. Sure sun angle causes problems, but around and before march 21 it's still more likely to be snowing when the sun is set than when it's not, and the storms in march always seemed juiced, so that the rates seem to overcome sun angle problems anyway. 

So a small climo reminder (For Baltimore at least)

The probability of precipitation falling as snow on Dec 14 is 4%, and on March 14 it's 4%. So if you were hoping for snow in Dec you should be hoping for snow in March.

Right now we are basically at peak climo. In Baltimore at least, when there is precipitation around Jan 20, 13% of the time it's snow. We are in a slightly colder period right now, so maybe we've bumped our chances of snow to 20%.

While it's great to look at long range models, and there is some incredible analysis of them on this site, they only have so much predictive power. Snowfall is so non-linear (i.e. freezing line makes all the difference) that having the temperature off by the slightest bit and the track off by the slightest bit can be the difference between 55 and rain, and 25 and snow. We know almost certainly that there is going to be a fairly big storm this weekend with a lot of moisture. Beyond that we really don't know all that much.

Let's just sit back and wait to see. Crazier things have happened, including the snow totals that just occurred, as many others have pointed out. We'll know more tomorrow and Thursday even though it's appearing less likely that we see only snow.

I know the verification scores are low for the CMC, and that it often doesn't agree with the other models, but it seems to me that if anything, it's a little too snow/cold happy for our area compared to other models. Can anyone confirm or rebut? I don't really ever get my hopes up for a storm until the CMC shows something, even if most of them don't pan out. This is all speculation though based on 5 or so years of following this forum, and I'm curious what others have to say.

3 minutes ago, Fozz said:

4.3" just north of the beltway. But it's often the other way around too, especially when mixing is involved.

I measured 4 inches this morning towards the end of the last real burst of snow. Other than a light on and off dusting I haven't had anything since about 10 or 11am. I'm right next to 83 less than a mile south of the train station.

1 hour ago, notvirga! said:

A frustrating day in Owings Mills. Life on the edge. 

Don't worry. I'm under the dark blue on the bottom side of the Baltimore dot and what's fallen has only been enough to give a light dusting.

2 minutes ago, Kleimax said:

dry air

Any chance this moistens up and we get another inch or so out of this?

I'm in Baltimore. The radar over me finally looks good. I look outside. It's snowing, but not nearly as much as some light green returns from last night. What is going on?

Just now, jaydreb said:

Pretty amazing to see the DC snowhole getting filled in.  It’s been 3 years in the making.  

 

It's just shifted north. It's now inner harbor / BWI snowhole.

Inner harbor no longer visible. Baltimore City band is extending a little south it would seem.

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Yeah just can’t get going here 

I think you guys will be fine somehow. I was on the northern edge of that snow hole for a little and it's just started snowing nicely here. I'll post a video in a second. I was waiting a good hour for that Ellicot city band to make it here though. It's coming and it'll be good.

Finally rates are heavy enough that the snow has started to accumulate again on the southern edge of the Baltimore city snow band.

NWS just bumped the forecast snow for the day from 1-3 to 2-4. I wonder if that is just to account for what already fell this morning between 8-9 am or what is yet to come.

After I last posted at 7am that things look quiet around Baltimore City with 2-3 on the ground, things really picked up, with some moderate rates and larger flakes. I just measure 4 inches. That's what I had initially hoped for early in the week, but after yesterday's runs I was starting to expect 5 or 6, so I hope we can get another 1-2 inches before it ends.

Things are really quiet in Baltimore City. It's hard to tell from inside, but it looks like 2-3 inches on the ground. I'm really hoping the back side of this storm gets going and makes it up here soon.