SnowJoMoJo

On 1/15/2021 at 12:29 PM, BullCityWx said:

Dont sleep on tomorrow. 

Nice call BullCity.  Not skunked this year!

Thunder snow in Wake Forest right at 16:00. Some graupel as well. Quick dusting during the peak of it and 41oF. 
 

Still moderate snow and 33, 33.  It is compacting and melting only slightly less fast than it is coming down.  This is the Heritage area in Wake Forest.  About 0.5 to 0.75 on the ground.

Light to moderate snow in Wake Forest.  33, 32.

4 minutes ago, snowinnc said:

Nice!  Thank you for the update!!!

Happy to!  It is ripping right now.  Truly starting to accumulate on elevated surfaces and grass.  Yard is rapidly whitening.  34, 33.

6 minutes ago, snowinnc said:

So happy for everyone in southern Wake County because you guys were due but what’s going on with northern Wake County? Still raining? Out of the country so I’m lurking from a distance!

It is snowing in Wake Forest now.  Starting to get a slushy accumulation on elevated surfaces.  35 degrees.

Changing back to rain snow mix now in Wake Forest. 36/35

back to slushy rain in Wake Forest. - 37/33

light rain/snow mix in Wake Forest.  39/34.

flurries at Sugar Mountain, Banner Elk, NC area

http://www.skisugar.com/cams/

38/38 in Wake Forest, NC -  high,thin, overcast

Maybe model upgrades have fixed a lot of this, but maybe time to reflect on Cold Rain's thread from about 3 years ago...

My favorite line from the post " Pink areas on a p-type map indicate slightly colder rain than the green areas. "

9 minutes ago, BullCityWx said:

Yes, that would be correct.

thanks

I’m still learning on here and therefore don’t necessarily know what all pieces are important for the models. Are all the important players now onshore and in a position to be well sampled?

Last 6 runs of NAM - LP slightly stronger and maybe 50-100 miles further north.

Just now, NCBlizzard said:

There is a snow melt forecast variable, which I assume accounts for things like ground/air temperature, and that would be incorporated to calculate the snow depth. I also believe it accounts for snow density/compaction. I'm not sure of the overall accuracy. You can see all of the forecast variables here: https://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/products/nam/nam.t00z.bgrdsf00.tm00.shtml

Thanks!

Hi All,

Does anyone know what all factors are included in the "Snow Depth" plots on Pivotal?  Is it based on Kuchera or straight 10:1? Consider compaction? Melting due to ground temps?   Is this plot generally accurate?  

Thanks!

Looks like pressures are trying to fall in upstate SC. 

Maybe this little bit of energy will kick up a quick little late bloomer?

2 hours ago, eyewall said:

A better edit of my supercell capture via drone (5x speed)

 

Great vid - thanks for posting!

Now that would be funny....

Just now, FallsLake said:

It's a problem with Tidbits. You can use: http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php

 

Thanks!

12Z GFS is stuck on Tidbits.

Anyone know if the GFS finally went off-line, is it just a Tidbits problem, or is this a government shutdown issue?  

Thanks

Here in Wake Forest some of these snowflakes are starting to bounce