Aleksey

Here where I live, roughly an hour North of Grand Rapids, MI. we hit a high of only 55° Tuesday, and 57° yesterday. 60’s remainder of the week and lows in the upper 40’s to low 50’s. Feeling like fall, back to normal this weekend and next, but only about 3-4 more weeks before consistent cool weather and about 6-8 weeks from our first snowfall. 

Euro is a major winter storm!!

25 minutes ago, Michigander said:

Here's the latest update form GRR

.UPDATE...
Issued at 110 PM EST Mon Feb 11 2019

The forecast is generally on track, but we will make a couple
changes to the WSW. We will upgrade the northern zones to a Winter
Storm Warning for the expected impacts of 6 or more inches of
snow combined with winds gusting 35 to 40 mph at times. Expect
significant impacts to travel from blowing and drifting with near
whiteouts in open country roads beginning late tonight.

We will also move the start time of the advisory across the
southern zones to 7 pm this evening, as snow and mixed precip is
expected to be arriving there this evening.

I am in GRR and I agree they should upgrade to WSW. All models point to 6-8" of heavy snow and some ice possible. Right now they are calling for 2-4" which I think is too low

51 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Picked up about an inch.  Had some nice flakes size initially, then it transitioned into more a pixie dust for the majority of the event.

Been a snowy week here! Picked up over 5” since yesterday afternoon and another 3.6” on Tuesday. Monday’s is gonna be the saver! 

NAM big hit for Grand Rapids

8-14" for Grand Rapids

On 1/19/2019 at 5:55 PM, cyclone77 said:

4.8".  Not for sure but guessing ratios were around 10:1.  The snow is light in nature, but it packed in pretty well with all that wind.  The granulated nature of the snow, and only around 100mb of DGZ depth likely kept ratios fairly conservative.  MLI/DVN ended up with 4.2/5.2" respectively.  Amounts around the area were generally in the 4-5" range.  The fact that the snow sort of compacted as it fell makes it a good quality snow, as it shouldn't compact and lower the overall snow depth.  Was a fun, yet kind of frustrating event to track lol.  

Monday's system is about to be a very fun one and biggest of the year! Probably WSW criteria

1 hour ago, hlcater said:

This has Wisconsin special written all over it. With strong LLJ, there really isn’t a whole lot to keep the baroclinic zone from just packing it’s bags and traveling north. I’d expect the low to cut through Iowa in some capacity.

Gonna be a special for me too. looking at 8-14" with heavy snow here in Grand Rapids, MI

NAM giving me 5-6" today. Temps don't seem to be a problem for my area, will be interesting to see how this unfolds.

@cyclone77 What have you ended up with?

Just over 4” 20 miles East of Grand Rapids. This system has over performed for me (:

Just over 4” about 20 mi east of Grand Rapids

12 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

I haven't looked at soundings since yesterday, but at that time 13-15:1 was a good range.

Agreed, ratios will be higher than 10:1. They start at 12:1 and go up to 16:1

4 hours ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

GRR goes with a small, 3-5 WWA

3-5" lines up with what I've been thinking and seeing for GRR. Euro was a beautiful 6" lol

1 minute ago, Harry Perry said:

For Grand Rapids, I would agree on the 3-5”... however I do believe they forget that there is more than just Grand Rapids they need to account for. Always seems that if it doesn’t interest Kent county as much as Jackson county, they act ho-hum about it. Been like this for years with certain forecasters. If WDM (Bill) was the forecaster for this storm he would go into much detail about it and where he thinks the best snowfall would be. Also, he would’ve most certainly issued a SWS at minimum to cover the potential for heavy snow. 

 

I-94 corridor is looking at 4-8” locally if the storm system holds true and trends continue - that is most certainly a significant snowfall and it should be noted. But again, I don’t know why I would expect any different. It’s only public life and property on the line haha.

Totally agree! Only thing that sucks is the bulk of this storm comes in the overnight hours, the heaviest at least. I wish it was during the day so I could enjoy it :/

1 minute ago, UMB WX said:

Well it will be fun trying to get there. At least now we have cold lurking and you have a nice body of water to your west for some stat padding.  GL this weekend.  We can still hope to nudge the numbers up a bit but it looks par for the course that another system scoots by south and doesn't realize its potential out our way.

I am excited for the next 10 days, a ton of potential and that wednesday system next week looks like it has some serious legs!

1 minute ago, UMB WX said:

Same as you.. Almost 7" in November and virtually nothing since.

We had 14.4" in November and are currently sitting at 18.7" haha no way we hit our yearly average of 75" 

2 minutes ago, UMB WX said:

Totally taking any snowfall I can get.  You didn't see any flakes from the last storm did you?

Hate to waste a setup like this one but it is what it is and there indeed looks to be enough chances for some snows to keep it interesting to end the month.

How are you guys on the other side of the lake doing?

1 minute ago, UMB WX said:

Totally taking any snowfall I can get.  You didn't see any flakes from the last storm did you?

Hate to waste a setup like this one but it is what it is and there indeed looks to be enough chances for some snows to keep it interesting to end the month.

I saw a few flakes, but that was it. We are so below average year to date it is ridiculous. Our last good accumulating snow was legit in November lol we have legit had under 5" total since the end of November haha

Just now, UMB WX said:

Frustrating for sure. This is normally a bread and butter GRR storm.   Just can't buy a hooker from the pan handle anymore.

This will still end up being a good event too for GRR. We will lose out to our south, but still 3-5" is not bad at all!

On a bright side, we have back-to-back systems to track with next weeks system potentially being a huge one! Euro laid down 10" for me just on Wednesday. Need to get through this one first, but models have definitely been consistent for a couple days now on another big impact storm next week!

Just now, UMB WX said:

so yeah sounds about right.  and considering the office. not sure what anybody was expecting.

yeah GRR office is horrible! They always go on the lower end. They never account for thermals, and the fact this could very well easily over perform. I think 3-5" is a pretty good bet. I will take that considering the fact we haven't seen that much snow since Novemeber lol

4 minutes ago, UMB WX said:

Sounds about right  ATM for, GRR.

GRR will get between 3-5"

Just now, Harry Perry said:

They issued a WWA for the possibility of a glazing of ice the other day... the forecast discussion read like this “Going to err on the side of caution and issue an advisory”. I’m thinking, but when we have a storm with 6”+ of snow on the table shouldn’t you “err on side of caution” and issue a watch?? Oh wait, they’re expecting 1-2” with locally higher amounts 

 

Like the looks of the short range models this morning as well as the GFS and NAM. Looks more typical and inline with WAA snows which tend to overperform in situations like this. Will feel more solid about this storm after 00z tonight with full sampling of the energy off the pacific coast. Chicago could easily end up with some double digit snow due to lake enhancement. A rare occurrence on the side of the pond - interesting system to watch unfold.

 

 

What do you think GRR will do? Euro just went good tick north and now lays down 5" Kuchera ratio, but with 15:1 and up to 18:1 ratios, I think 5-6" looks likely! Thoughts?