shahroz98

It was like this for about 4 hours in the NE Suburbs of Atlanta

NWS Atlanta released a Winter Weather Advisory for up to 2 inches already.

I am so tired of this ridging pattern

Trends on the CFS for Nov-Dec-Jan look nice

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228-264 on the FV3 looks interesting. Too bad it'll be gone in the next run

14 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

No one should expect run to run continuity 7 days out on a storm that is going to be this close. Very small differences in the ridge/trough are resulting in the big differences seen at the surface, from run to run at this range that will change wildly. I have 11 out of 20 GEFS members over 4 inches and all showing 1 inch or more for my area. I couldn't ask for more support at a 7 day lead time. 

where do you see the GEFS ensembles ? is it behind a paywall ?

Im surprised NWS for Atlanta mentioned wintry precip next weekend for "much of the forecast area".

LR on the GFS and FV3 look promising. 

Atlanta had thunderstorms today. Isnt there a saying that it snows 10 days within thunder in the winter ?

Have you guys seen the warm noses the gfs has in the LR for NE GA and the Upstate ? Everytime theres a modeled front, those places get left out

18z GFS looks soo good right now

17 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

Well with 42 out of 51 members on EPS at least giving me around a couple inches and like 16 of those showing bigger hits of 6 plus I’m definitely excited to keep tracking this one. Backing well away from the cliff I was at during some earlier runs lol

Where'd you see that ?

How does Metro Atlanta look in all of this ? Are we sitting out for this one ?

JAMSTEC came out

JBs going to have his winter forecast up on satuday... lets see what he says

March 9-12 on the 12z run looks pretty interesting

1 hour ago, PGAWx said:

And DT chimes in 40 min ago:

** ALERT**  Massive changes in  overnight models now  FAVOR    late  season   SIGNIFICANT  winter storm  Midwest  &  East coast in the MARCH 5-7  time frame.  And NO  these changes in the models  were  NOT  there  Yesterday..over the past weekend  ..or last week.

who's DT ?

MJO GFS Ensemble looks like its going to do a "loop de loop" in phase 7  

GFS 18z gives me the early december snow look with the overrunning look hr 216-234

TWC is hinting at a winter cancel for the south once the "Thaw" beings

2 hours ago, mackerel_sky said:

It's on the MJO phase 4-5 , so it can't happen list

We need to be in 1,7 or 8 right ?

This setup reminds me of January 2014

Ensembles have been keeping the southeast below average through the entire run.

1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said:

JB says January thaw coming mid to late month, but comes roaring back in February! That should ease concerns!

"Wait for Fab February" as they say !

Brad P was talking about a better storm chance sometime next week