Brick Tamland

It didn't even take 48 hours. Everything looked great Monday night with the 11:00 GFS run. It didn't really start changing until yesterday afternoon. It took about 12 hours for it to start going downhill after that GFS run Monday night.

I miss sledding on the hill in front of Justice Hall at App. Justice isn't even there now.

Latest from met Greg Fishel. SNOW THREAT APPEARS TO BE DECREASING, WITH ICE THE GROWING CONCERN Seeing as how there has never been a perfect model forecast 5-6 days out, that means that whatever those models are showing 5-6 days out will be wrong. The only question is by how much? This is the kind of reasoning all the clickbaiters out there are unfamiliar with. So, there is growing evidence that our upcoming storm will take an inland path across eastern North Carolina. That is the kiss of death for snow lovers in the Triangle area. Storms move along boundaries between warm and cold air. The ideal snow setup is to be far enough away from the boundary to stay cold, but close enough to get precipitation. It’s analogous to putting your finger close enough to the burner to feel the heat, but not close enough to get scalded. An inland track would mean a brief period of snow at the start, followed by several hours of freezing rain, and then several hours of rain. Areas well east of Raleigh could see temperatures rise into the 50s and even 60s! Now to be fair, there’s never been a perfect model forecast 4 days out either! So there will be more changes for sure. Just know that at our location, we can’t get away with a single variable going arye, so the deck is always stacked against us, and that’s why we only average about 6” of snow per year. So always better to wait and make sure the stars are aligned. If one star is out of line, it simply won’t work!

Really? The final output looked a lot worse for snow here.

Mix City

That's what we need, but right now it's on its own with that track.

I know. Just crazy how the models were looking better and better each run, and then 12 hours after that one they started going the other way.

Crazy that we were looking at this at 11:00 Monday night before everything started going the wrong direction yesterday afternoon.

He was also one of the first ones to say it was happening.

Okay, positive vibes today everyone! We need that low to go further east and off the coast.

The models were great. Then WRAL said the chance for snow here was increasing, and the models started going the other way.

Thank you for the informative and kind response.

Actually, I have never asked before. I assumed this was why, though, but wanted to clarify it.

Well, things don't look good with the model trends, but they are still showing snow here. It is frustrating to have a setup for a good storm here but not have the track of the low cooperate. Also sucks that outside 5 days you can't trust the models when they do show a big storm. Just a couple days ago we looked golden. So why does it create more ice and rain instead of snow when the low tracks inland versus off the coast? How does the inland track bring more warm air?

I'm stocked up with Red Oak.

Latest from WRAL for the Triangle. It all depends on the track of the low. Mike Maze will have the newest runs of Futurecast on WRAL News at 11. Here are tonight's model trends for the weekend winter weather: -The bulk of the precipitation occurring Sunday and Sunday night...this is slower than the late Saturday timeframe we saw yesterday. -A stronger and more impactful system -A deeper dive in the jet stream allowing low pressure to form near the Gulf and more moisture moving in -Wintry mix and not just snow. Sleet, freezing rain, and rain could also fall at various times during the event. This depends on how close to the shore or how inland the surface low pressure tracks. We will really start to get a better grasp on this as high resolution models become available at the end of the week.

In the meantime it's funny seeing them going in opposite directions. Hopefully the ensembles are correct and the ops will correct course.

Looks like half are a big hit for the Triangle. I think that's a few more than last time.

Also funny that the ops have come in worse today but WRAL has been increasing the talk more today about snow here.

Crazy how both the GFS and Euro ops are getting worse for a lot of NC but the ensembles are getting better.

Definitely a trend with at least the op runs today, and not a good one.

Crazy how different the ops and ensembles are.

So the ops are getting worse but the ensembles are getting better.

Would love to have that 6 inches of snow eveb with some mix. But the mood now sounds like people don't believe it will be that much and we'll have more mixing.

Can't deny the trends with the Euro and GFS today away from a huge snow storm for many in NC to more ice and rain. The low is just going too far inland in NC. We need it off the coast. Really frustrating because we have the CAD and temps cold enough for a big snow storm if the low was just farther east instead of coming inland so amped up and with the killer warm nose.