Wonderdog
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Everything posted by Wonderdog
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And we have 5 days to get the primary down to West VA.
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As depicted, we're very close to a nice event on the 24th or 23rd.
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Looks like things settled down overnight wrt next weekend's storm with the lp getting into a better place. Wouldn't take much to get it back to where it was imo. Maybe just a blip on the models. 6z is also showing a bonafide coastal the next weekend. Some have said it takes time for a pattern change to pay off. I'm beginning to believe that. Hopefully by Tuesday, we'll have clarity on the first storm of the pattern change.
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We need that developing low in sw to slide into the SE
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Oh yeah, that's right. My bad.
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18z had initialization errors. No panic here.
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What's a HA event?
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Very cold. Nice to see.
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You and the others you mentioned know much much more than me. With this progressive flow, it just feels like the possible outcomes for late January into February are very hard for the models to handle and as a result we have to wait until we're within five days before gaining some clarity.
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Kind of hard to believe what the models spit out 10 days out when less than a week ago the current look didn't exist and most on this thread were anticipating almost no winter.
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Could an argument be made that the pattern change began when the mid Atlantic got some snow a couple of days ago?
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I've read a number of times over the years about the vortex breaking a piece off. Is that a normal process with the vortex and can that be forecasted?
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Lol. I got close to 3 inches so I broke out the toy. It was glorious.
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I like how the snow/rain hole remains over northern Virginia during the entire January 16th storm. Unbelievable!
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I like the look on the GFS for the storm on the 15th. Big improvements from the last few runs. Nice ridge out west; 1048 HP in upper midwest. To my untrained eyes, a continued southward progression of the trough could make for an interesting event.
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I was just happy to see NOVA under the blue color for two runs in a row. If that look holds at 12z, I think we have to consider starting a new thread. LOL
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Nice eye candy developing at the end of the last two GFS runs. Maybe a sign of an earlier pattern change?
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H5 looks pretty good for next week's teaser doesn't it? Ridge in the west; trough in the east; temps close.
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Cherry Hill.
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I'm heading to South Jersey on Saturday. I might have more luck up there. My goal is to see some flakes in a bad pattern! Maybe we'll look back at this weekend and see that it qualified as one of those surprises that happens every few years or so along the eastern seaboard.
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I was just going to ask , does a system that is going toward a negative tilt slow down a bit?
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Is there any significance to the squiggly isobars to the SE of the lp when it is located in WV?
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Maybe a track from Texas to western TN instead of western MO.
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Hey buddy, I'm probably wrong but I thought you said a couple of days ago that you were only going to check out the models every five days or so. Lol. Maybe with that monster storm on the 14th, we can get some luck and instead as depicted, it comes further east before cutting. Already showing some front end stuff! Maybe we can score some heavy snow before changing over.
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Question. If the same conditions that you have elaborated on now exists in three weeks, would we have a better shot at snow due to being deeper in winter?
