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rowjimmy73

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    Hurricane Isaias

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    Just now, ldub23 said:

    hopefully  it stays  offshore so you wont  get flooded

    we are ready, learned alot about how it floods here during michael. got tons of water, lanterns, batteries and canned goods. just bought a 5 day stay frozen cooler and waiting om city to issue sandbags monday to protect hvac and hotwater. i say bring it on. 

    Hurricane Isaias

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    nws blacksburg regardless of how strong or not the PRE is what to watch, anything after that will just be a bad scene in an already ridic wet year here in southside

     

      

    SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 350 AM EDT Saturday...

By Sunday our attention will turn toward Isaias approaching the
southeast coast of the US. The latest NHC track guidance is
slower and a bit further to the west. This looks to take the
storm over eastern/coastal North Carolina Monday night. As
Isaias approaches, the trailing cold front from a surface low
moving into the great lakes will get hung up and stall over the
Appalachians and central mid Atlantic region, setting the stage
for a PRE to become established as the front interacts with the
approaching tropical circulation around Isaias. Guidance
members are all singing variations on this same theme to give
growing confidence to the possibility of widespread rainfall
beginning by late Sunday. However it is common for a PRE to have
an embedded band of enhanced rainfall and there there remains a
good deal of uncertainty in exactly where this band of enhanced
rainfall will be. As it stands now it looks like widespread
rainfall amounts of 1.5 to 2.5 inches can be expected with 3.0
inch amounts along the Blue Ridge, and orographic affects in the
mountains will also enhance rainfall amounts. This amount of
rainfall will make flooding an increasing possibility with
significant flooding possible if the PRE lingers over the same
area for a prolonged period of time. Isaias accelerates away
from the area on Tuesday but the axis of the upper trof remains
to our west and will continue our chances for showers/storms.

After one last hot day o Sunday, expect a cooling trend with
the arrival of widespread clouds and rainfall. Highs on Monday
will be in the lower 80s east, mid/upper 70s west, and just a
bit warmer for Tuesday.

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    On 11/19/2019 at 9:54 PM, Maestrobjwa said:

    Ha...Now that winter kinda looked like what we had in 2015-15: Extreme blowtorch and a Christmas in the upper 60s/low 70s...and then an epic Blizzard in January. (That's why I was kinda excited when I saw that record because I wondered if the 70 degree Christmas in a strong niño correlation was gonna hold true again--because it also happened in 1982-83!)

    feb 83 all of 77/78 good years to be a kidl. 10 yr old me remembers cnj thundersnow in feb 83

     

    • Like 1

    Post Tropical Storm Jerry... exiting stage right and about to dissipate

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    Just now, WinterWolf said:

    I hear ya...nobody is wishing for devastation/total destruction.  But some heavy rain and some gusty winds up here from a tropical storm/remains of a hurricane would be a decent change of pace.  

    I know the old saying....Be Careful what you wish for, but some type of storm would be cool for SNE this tropical season. 

     

     

    dont get me wrong, i love it as much as the next weenie. im just agreeing with the bottom statement...i wished for it all my life having lived in nj and been in remnants, missed sandy cause i lived in fl.Michael last year was insane, we had almost 9 inches of rain here and the river rose like 23 ft in 9 minutes or something.  we went thru what looked like the banded remains of the eye and it wa crazy 

     

    Post Tropical Storm Jerry... exiting stage right and about to dissipate

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    8 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

    Reminds me of a less active 1995.

    if we can get a winter like 1995 out of it ill be happy. glad to see im not theonly one to see this, mentioned it to my wife last week

    1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

    I knew somebody would come out with a post like this.  

    Watching and tracking something that doesn't get into your neighborhood, is only fun for so long.  Dorian was certainly a monster and phenomenon that is very rare.  And it was exciting watching its every move as it approached the Bahama's and the southeast.  But it was largely a miss for the U.S.   

     

    Nobody is saying it isn't active, and if you like watching hurricanes and storms out over the ocean, that look to remain there, then this is your year.  For those of us who would like to have some type of storm threaten our area, so far it's been Boring for sure, and looks to stay that way.   Everybody likes different things about the weather...some of us like to be involved in it(have it hit our areas) from time to time.

    having lived through michaels remains in the va piedmont ill take quiet anytime. still recovering down here and it wasnt even a named storm anymore 

     

    Dorian

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    yes up here in danville we had a good rain from matthew. im not certain how much rain even tho its been dryish lately we can take without incurring more damage. still recovering up here from michael, let alone the severe weve had over the summer. 

     

    Dorian

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    12 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

    Still a whole lot to iron out, and the question you raise depends on when and where it makes landfall.  If landfall is along the central SC coast and it moves inland, the transition should start occurring soon after, sending the shield NW.  If it stays off the coast and makes landfall farther north, the rain shield wont get too far west.

    That's my fear. Could a stronger trough  pull it more inland? Still haven't figured out the va piedmont since moving. But unnerving to be a 3rd year in a row with some sort of remnant system nearby

    • Like 2

    Dorian

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    Watching that arrival time for ts winds showing up weds pm/Thursday am extrapolated makes me uneasy here in the piedmont. What's the chance it starts its post tropical transition and the western precip shield becomes a problem up here?

    Dorian

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    22 minutes ago, Disc said:

    Howdy neighbor! Welcome to the area. We'll certainly be keeping an eye on it here. 

    whats your take on the cmc? its unreal that in the 3 plus years weve lived here since moving from naples, fl that we have had a remnant or storm every year...we had none in 7 years in naples lol. danville must hate me 

     

    April 18, 19, 2019 Severe Event

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    Just now, ryan1234 said:


    Quite frankly, the SPC wording isn’t all that doomsday like. They mention a few tornadoes with an enhanced wind threat. It looks like today worst of this 3 day outbreak.


    .here in danville, the winds alone would cause a huge issue with how wet its been for the last 6 months. add in flooding potential and we are in it big time. we still have areas from michael that are nowhere near repaired and ,the runoffs would cause big issues. Just around our neighborhood we have street still missing chunks and drainage culverts and creeks not repaired to where they were before michael came thru. the last two bouts of rain have even caused local mudslides and power outages...it wont take much up here.

     

     

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