Cerakoter1984

Getting there...

If the Euro is too warm and too far West with the cold here, then I think we may have a candidate for a storm of some interest.

I fully expect to see an interesting storm in our area near Thanksgiving.

2 hours ago, WhiteoutWX said:

00z GFS continues with an extremely impressive blocking pattern in the long range. By the end of the run has TWO closed upper highs in Canada/Greenland with the PV basically trapped over the Great Lakes. Given support from the GEFS and the Euro/EPS this is about as encouraging a sign as one can get for cold/snow at lower latitudes, especially if we can keep this blockiness into December. 

Yes. Going to be hard to see a late fall pattern better than that. When retrogression begins,....  boom. This winter could be pretty historic. Too many dominoes falling in a row for it not to. Looking forward to writing about a lot of exciting weather this winter. Really haven't had much weather to write about around here in nearly 3 years.

6 hours ago, WhiteoutWX said:

Building consensus for a period of increased blocking in the 7+ day range. Currently the position of the block looks to focus the core of the cold to our east but overall I’d say blocking showing up is a good sign heading into winter. Definitely a completely different look than the past couple Novembers.

We're heading into a pretty good spot for being November. Hoping for a bit of retrogression after this pattern sets up.

15 hours ago, raindancewx said:

I'm somewhat familiar with ONI/PDO/AMO/Solar values for years before 1950, but I generally forbid myself from using anything before 1931 because there is no snow data for where I live, so its kind of pointless to look at for me. But I did want to ask you...what do you like about 1917-18?

N. Pac configuration and solar mostly. It was a strong La Nina but it fits an overall pattern of years similar to 2010-11, 1988-89 also. There's some huge potential for major pattern amplification and blocking once we get a little way into winter and all throughout the rest of it. That also shares the characteristics of 1917-18.

On 11/1/2017 at 0:05 PM, MoWeatherguy said:

Hard to get excited about snow around here anymore.   Last day in Fayetteville with greater than .5 snow was back in March 2015.  SMDH

I believe this year will be 100% different than the last 2. I think that we are in for a pretty wild winter around these parts.

12 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Any of you use Weather Trends 360? Don't subscribe, but they linked this on Twitter yesterday - thought it might make some of you happy.

It makes me really happy but also disappointed. 200% more than last year is still below normal. Lol

Gonna throw this map up. I'm still leaning pretty hard towards this.

November looks seriously a lot like early winter from where I'm sitting.

On 10/23/2017 at 3:36 PM, raindancewx said:

I dunno if the "snow" anomalies I'm linking include sleet/freezing rain, etc, but this forum region did pretty well in terms of snow anomalies in a lot of the winters I like. If SSTs mean anything, its a good sign, since the blend is very close to current conditions.

Sanity check for analogs in Oct of analog year v. Oct 22 2017:

 

Looks like I would have gotten snow in about two of those really. Talk about winters of being one county away from the fun. Yikes!

Things looking to take off pretty fast over the next few days. Very reminiscent of 2000 and 2013 in my opinion.

On 10/5/2017 at 5:12 PM, raindancewx said:

I want to see what the AMO value for September was, but pending a sudden warm up / cool down from the hurricanes, I like a blend of 1932, 1943, 1944, 1996, 2005, 2007, 2008, 2012 for the winter. Tried to pick warm/neutral AMO years, with a mix of positive PDO/negative PDO years, low solar, La Ninas or Cold Neutrals after La Ninas, similar values to what I expect on the Jamstec's Modoki index which goes back to 1870. Also try to blend it all in a way that matches Summer rainfall patterns here, since we get so little rain even in the wet season.

Weighting is something like:

1932: x3

1943: x2

1944: x3

1996: x3

2005: x3

2007: x3

2008: x2

2012: x1

I think it's a much colder, but still not particularly cold winter for much of interior South, South Central, and SW US. 1932-33 was one of the winters that triggered the Dustbowl so hoping it isn't that dry, but with a VEI6 volcano in the tropics, and a hurricane hitting SW FL, a four hitting Puerto Rico & TX, something is similar - whether its Nino 3.4, trade winds, or the Atlantic, its not like Puerto Rico & TX have both been hit by fours in the same year in any other year since 1850. 

I'm almost done writing my winter outlook, will put it out sometime between 10/7 and 10/15. Want to see how much rain we have in Oct and a couple other minor things.

I'm looking forward to it. I'm still working and waiting on a few things to happen also before I write my thoughts out. Things are looking good for my area, in my opinion. The next 2 weeks are very critical in the overall long term pattern. Trades burst looks to cool ENSO back down. Something to keep in mind also, +AAM, -QBO, and a climbing PDO all argue for a -AO and a period of at least some cold for a large portion of the US this winter.

I'm going with a slightly harsher scenario (cold) than most. I like 2000-01, 1984-85, 2008-09, and 2010-11. Going to get into research pretty quick and see if i can make an analog map or 2.

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

You can find the data here: http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

Thank you.

3 hours ago, qr7121 said:

this is horrifying

Where can I find that chart? That's a neat way to look at the temperatures.

Is there a possibility of an inter-hemispheric temperature variability cycle coming into play here? Basically south pole warming and north pole cooling in the near future? May be a stupid question, but when you see weird stuff, is there a better time to ask a weird question?

On Monday, September 19, 2016 at 7:19 PM, lookingnorth said:

89/72/96. This is horrible second half of September weather.

Agree. I'm sick of it.