Ser Pounce

I was referring to the model downeastnc posted, I should've quoted him. Looks like the worst of it would pass through my back yard around midday tomorrow and I'm in for a show either way. There are some huge trees on the perimeter of KCHS to watch from a window near my desk, or some 85' pines in adjacent yards if I'm at home. The road from the airport to 526 would likely be impassable if things start to get interesting. edit: I've also been seeing what Orangeburgwx noticed.

If it continues northeastward like that in the following few hours we could be looking at bridge closures in Charleston. Wouldn't surprise me if the big one in Savannah is shut down for a while as well. SCE&G or whoever serves the area between here and Columbia will be very busy later this week.

Too early to tell but I'm wondering about the bridges here in Charleston since they close when the wind is high. That will effectively cut me off from work if that ends up happening. I was planning on avoiding the flight line later this week anyway.

Lots of counties in the Charleston area have TS Watches up, but the center will most likely pass to our west.

I'd say today, might as well get ready to go now. This one's a quick mover.

Could be fun times for us over here in Charleston depending on how this plays out. Possibly the 3rd named storm passing over Charleston County in 3 years?

Likewise in Charleston. I could see us getting 6 inches or hardly anything at all. Just depends on how much to the south this thing is able to make it. Right now it's sunny and breezy. The only things coming down are loose leaves, sticks, and pine straw but the clouds are really moving quick.

And this is the kind of thing that I'm definitely watching out for. Don't have an models or the NHC in front of me at the moment, but wasn't that turn supposed to happen later tonight?

We must have a good one, the local channel I like shows the Euro and GFS models along with others sometimes and explains the difference between them.

Especially when it seems like everything has been trending south for a while now. I'm anxiously looking forward to the NHC's next update. I'm also curious about how they handle all the models that keep showing southwest movement off the coast on this one.

Depends on your location!

Which if that holds true, turns into nowcasting for all of us farther down the coast. A lot of people I've talked to have assumed it would be fairly weak when it moves SW. Staying stronger would change the game just a bit.

That's when the respective areas have at least a 5% chance of receiving TS winds, so they're going to show early date and times to reflect faster possible motion of the system.

Staying in Charleston, but really curious about storm surge. It's too early to start talking about that, unfortunately.

I'm not buying that much weakening - Google Maps suggests the center would be ~75 miles offshore. You get this, plus storm surge stacking up from the slow southwest movement and that makes a mess of trouble and that's before it dumps on upstate SC and NC.

Looks ugly for Charleston - the storm appears far enough offshore to stay strong and then looks like a Kiawah landfall which is always described as the worst case scenario here.

If it stalled over the gulf stream, probably not like most think it would.

The only way I can think of to make it worse is to bump the center offshore so it can stay stronger.

Plus you have a whole lot of places exposed to northeast quadrant storm surge that weren't before. This one would change everything.

What are the wind gusts in Charleston after hour 105 as it passes down?

Does anyplace show the wind field for GFS-FV3 like weather.us does for the Euro? edit: I'm blind. Don't know how I missed it in the drop down.

It's a long wait to see the 12z ECMWF now that it looks like we're clustering closer to the NC/SC border. There's not a lot of movement to the southwest that can happen before things start looking really ugly for Charleston.

Our 'bug out' places are Aiken or Charlotte where we know people. Euro says Charlotte would be better, everyone else says good luck getting back from there, go to Aiken. There's plenty of watching and waiting in store today. We aren't taking anything in particular as gospel, there's just too much uncertainty from a Charleston perspective.

I'm looking forward to seeing whether it's an anomaly or something other models begin to pick up on as well. Those ensemble members southwest of Myrtle Beach are way too close for comfort! If things do get bad and we clear out I'll be leaving behind two phones set up as webcams that should run until power, internet and mobile service go out. SCE&G trimmed a lot of trees away from power lines and it looks like a brontosaurus took a bite out of all of them. Some of these are guaranteed to drop limbs on one side or the other, or fall down entirely since they're so lopsided now.

Stage two begins today. Pack like we need to clear out.