Ser Pounce

Staying in Charleston, but really curious about storm surge. It's too early to start talking about that, unfortunately.

I'm not buying that much weakening - Google Maps suggests the center would be ~75 miles offshore. You get this, plus storm surge stacking up from the slow southwest movement and that makes a mess of trouble and that's before it dumps on upstate SC and NC.

Looks ugly for Charleston - the storm appears far enough offshore to stay strong and then looks like a Kiawah landfall which is always described as the worst case scenario here.

If it stalled over the gulf stream, probably not like most think it would.

The only way I can think of to make it worse is to bump the center offshore so it can stay stronger.

Plus you have a whole lot of places exposed to northeast quadrant storm surge that weren't before. This one would change everything.

What are the wind gusts in Charleston after hour 105 as it passes down?

Does anyplace show the wind field for GFS-FV3 like weather.us does for the Euro? edit: I'm blind. Don't know how I missed it in the drop down.

It's a long wait to see the 12z ECMWF now that it looks like we're clustering closer to the NC/SC border. There's not a lot of movement to the southwest that can happen before things start looking really ugly for Charleston.

Our 'bug out' places are Aiken or Charlotte where we know people. Euro says Charlotte would be better, everyone else says good luck getting back from there, go to Aiken. There's plenty of watching and waiting in store today. We aren't taking anything in particular as gospel, there's just too much uncertainty from a Charleston perspective.

I'm looking forward to seeing whether it's an anomaly or something other models begin to pick up on as well. Those ensemble members southwest of Myrtle Beach are way too close for comfort! If things do get bad and we clear out I'll be leaving behind two phones set up as webcams that should run until power, internet and mobile service go out. SCE&G trimmed a lot of trees away from power lines and it looks like a brontosaurus took a bite out of all of them. Some of these are guaranteed to drop limbs on one side or the other, or fall down entirely since they're so lopsided now.

Stage two begins today. Pack like we need to clear out.

Huge mess coming tomorrow. Nobody's employers were contacted ahead of time so it's a mad scramble everywhere to figure out exactly where things are being closed and whether people need to come in to work. My wife is supposed to come in according to her manager (works at a doctor's office), but it's unclear whether she would actually be able to get home or not! Details may be coming at the Charleston County press conference at 4.

Yes! In my opinion it's not necessary for Charleston, or at least make it effective Wednesday instead. Lots of people are home from work already and now it's a scramble to figure out how not to get trapped on the wrong side of the block tomorrow if we need to go in at all.

It's effective tomorrow at noon.

That would be... troubling.

I've scrolled back several pages now but can't find it - isn't this showing more westward movement than previously expected? Still feeling a like we'll see landfall closer to Myrtle Beach or the border.

I wouldn't go that direction. Think more west beyond the mountains.

This is a big part of why I don't think it's as settled as the main board chatter implies. People seem to be looking at the line the model spits out instead of its overall spread or clustering. Same thing happened last year until late in the game. I'm obviously not a met, but statistician is part of my job title and that's the perspective I look at these things from.

Reading the Tropical Weather forum I thought I was the only one thinking that.