bjc3395

Not many. I see some mid-upper 60s over upper 50s (even low-60s Td). That said, it has nothing to do with how far east the dry line surged. The thermal axis will always lie behind the dry line.. that's just how it works. What you're seeing is the effect of widespread cloud cover by the GFS. The GFS has the entire warm sector underneath 85+% cloud cover, restricting temperatures in the mid 60s. There definitely will be a portion farther south that gets completely capped by 850mb warming. However, I am pretty convinced there's going to be surface-based severe storms somewhere along the dry line in W OK. The only way this doesn't happen is if widespread cloud cover mutes the diurnal heating cycle, suppressing the dry line circulation.. I question the GFS cloud cover output in this regard, even though widespread cloud cover is a possibility. I would expect it Saturday and Saturday night more so than Sunday..

Definitely worth watching, the wind profiles over the warm sector and along the dry line are extremely impressive (at least on the GFS, haven't checked the ECMWF). Latest GFS even cracks 60 F Td into SW OK, with pretty solid early March lapse rates to boot. The problem isn't really the moisture as much as it seems to be the heating. Widespread cloud cover, I'm guessing, would be likely on the heels of that strong frontal push into the GoM. Neat as always to get a system like this early in the season, but as is typical, it comes on the heels of a strong cyclone and anticyclone pairing to the east, driving moisture out into the GoM just before.. Hard to see much to chase on Sunday. Going to follow, but plenty will need to be overcome for this to be anything noteworthy.

Sunday could be an interesting day in the plains. Not sure the moisture will make it but.. We will see. The shear will be there, I'm just not entirely sure with that lead system that we will have much moisture to work with. Probably worth watching.

knew of GFS ensemble and CFS, I've been using euro on accuwx but they don't have the ENS I believe. Euro ensemble, at least on a very basic 24 hour interval similar to what pivotal/COD offer, is available on the euro site for free but it's very basic. Anyway it shows a solution further south than what GEFS depicts, with operational euro even further south. Very interesting and encouraging to see. Would not mind a repeat of Thursday's positioning if verified though I'd like to see better timing and less crap. Tl;Dr I wanna chase kansas, maybe Nebraska. Wouldn't mind OK but that would be a rather anomalous event.

Just curious, where can someone access the "weeklies" and ensemble data? Thanks!

Euro shows a pretty significant trough coming onshore hour 240... time to get excited?

Monday looks like a pretty robust event in OK/KS per 12z euro if you ask me.

I was referencing prior 0z and 12z euro

GFS (0z) a step in the right direction. Euro is where it's at. GFS *potentially* trending that direction.

Hahaha NAM wants winter back.

You are correct. I was referring to 12z GFS. 18z lags behind a bit so sfc response is delayed and the threat area shifts west, as you pointed out. This will undoubtedly change as the GFS shows poor run to run consistency.

Very interested in next Monday. GFS shows a pretty potent setup over C OK. Euro lags behind.