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Mrwolf1972

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  1. From Facebook nws post
    1/15/24 12:00am

    HRRR simulated radar solution seems to be spot on with timing tonight, with the Tri-Cities and northern valley expected to see widespread snow showers begin over the next hour.

    I wanted to include the forecaster’s discussion from the NWS for those that enjoy reading the take from the local office in Morristown.

    For those that don’t want to read the full text, there’s a couple of key items:

    1) expect forecast totals to be increased by the overnight crew as current trends with early accumulation support the more robust solutions we’ve been watching over the past couple of days

    2) there will be a brief, anticipated lull from around 4am until 8-9am after which the bulk of the heavier precipitation begins to move in and increase throughout the day tomorrow.

    An interesting phenomenon, and something I haven’t seen in a long time with a winter storm set up in our area, is watching the HRRR and NAM both capture a “trapping” of the precipitation on our side of the Appalachians. Typically we see lower Valley accumulations and increased totals along the higher elevations of our NC border counties. There’s a distinct accumulation cut off from the foothills of our border counties and the higher elevations. I would anticipate some of the precipitation “stalling,” and potentially increasing accumulation in the Central Valley. It sets up a rare situation where valley accumulations will be potentially higher than that of our mountain locations.

    As some of you get up and ready for work tomorrow, be sure to pay attention to any forecast adjustments and monitor live radar before heading out the door. The forecasted “pause” will likely be during the typical rush-hour period. Don’t be lulled into a false sense of security.

    Sent from my SM-S916U1 using Tapatalk



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