monsoonman1

1273 tornadoes

first High risk April 12th

Sunday looks at least somewhat intriguing for OK/TX on last night's Euro.

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Day 3 slight risk issued for SE AR/NE LA/west MS with few tornadoes possible. Also mention of a cold-core type threat in east KS, which I've had my eye on for a few days.

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12z GFS has trough after trough swinging through the middle of the country from this weekend on, which is about all we can ask for right now. 

Wouldn't sleep on Saturday, still some questions but parameters seem to be there.

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There is a thread for Saturday, just for the info. I'll post in there in a bit.

Tornado watch up for parts of LA and TX. Only the 3rd watch of the year.

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SPC has outlined Day 6 from east TX into AR and MS/AL. Only thing holding the setup back right now is lack of instability, but that could easily change so better keep an eye on this.

12z GFS also starting to look better. Guessing some folks will get their first chase on Monday.

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De Kalb, TX probably just got hit bad. Big TDS.

TDS east of Hoberg in Lawrence County, MO.

Slight risk with 5% tornado risk issued for SE OK and Arklatex region. Probably looking at QLCS type threat.

1182 tornadoes

First High Risk: March 27th (AR/MO) 

thinking average year in terms of numbers with better quality than 2017.

Kind of a surprise WWA for this morning with 1-2 inches of snow expected IMBY.

Topeka reported 1.3 inches of snow today, makes it 1.8 for the season so far. Hope we can squeeze out some more before the New Year.

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GFS snow depth chart has me around 20 inches on 12/27. I'll gladly take that run.

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This is a really boring pattern. Sunny with dry cold frontal passages every now and then. At least Friday should be warm enough to go for a hike.

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Looks like I had .3 in or so of snow today. Not sure when Topeka last had snow on Halloween.

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5% tornado risk for SE KS and NE OK. Might head down towards Eureka, KS today to see what happens.

Enhanced risk tomorrow for SW KS into the OK panhandle. 

5% tornado probs for the CO/KS/NE area. Pretty nice setup for this time of year.

A Cat 5 hitting anywhere is going to be devastating, but probably especially for PR. My mom and sister went there last year for a vacation, so I asked my mom if Puerto Rico is ready for a big one. She just laughed. People there are pretty poor and infrastructure already sucks. It seems from what I have seen that they are taking this pretty seriously, so we just have to hope for the best.

Solid 70/40 tornado probs on that watch.

5% tornado risk today for east CO into NM.

SPC goes Enhanced for tomorrow from east Texas into Louisiana and Mississippi, which seems to be for tornado potential.