Normandy Ho

I like this one as the first cane of the year

17/8/5

life’s already giving us lemons how about that bruh

almost time to ring the bell!

1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Not to be overly dramatic but that is without a doubt a violent long track tornado underway 

One could argue it might be a tri-state tornado.  It dropped in LA (albeit briefly), crossed into MS, and likely will move into AL later

Yessir,  even had some activity near galveston

Shoutout to @kayman for keeping us posted bruh.  

Impressive stuff in those vids .  Between this and the tornadoes in SF we are in for a hell of a ride the next 50 years

Holy shit that thing ramped up quickly 

We are certainly due for an average year, but my fear is that sea surface temperatures have raised the bar of average.  I do think we see less than last year though but not by much.

Starting to really come together just ENE of Honduras coastline.  I was hoping it would dive southwards enough to get buried but it looks like it will gain just enough latitude to stay offshore

Real time trends suggest that the depression has a dual lobe structure.  The west lobe is diving WSW and will be inland shortly over Honduras.  The eastern lobe is currently stationary east of Nicaragua, but should begin to move WNW.  The sloppy structure and close proximity to land makes me think we got away with one here in the US

1 hour ago, hawkeye_wx said:

And now the Euro stalls this system on the Honduras coast and never develops it much.  24-48 hours ago this was looking pretty exciting to track, but it has come crashing down from that perspective.

Land interaction looks to save us here.  It’s already getting very far south

2 hours ago, CCHurricane said:

12z GFS not backing down. Landfall as CAT 3 just south of Fort Meyers, with it traversing the Florida peninsula in less than 6 hours. 

Would be an extreme wind event for S Florida due to fast motion

with the active November on going, we might have a top hurricane season if all time when it’s all said and done. Unthinkable considering where we were in July and august lol

Yowza.  S FL got a problem on its hands I think 

24 minutes ago, AStorms13 said:

I have a bit of a random question, and I don't know if this is the right place to ask.  The most recent GFS model got me thinking about this.

Is it theoretically possible for a hurricane to travel down the center of the Gulf of California and impact Arizona/California?  Is the Gulf big enough to support a hurricane?  Clearly a path as such is incredibly unlikely, but still technically possible.

It’s theoretically possible but the synoptic pattern to drive a TC NNW through the gulf without impacting land on either side is challenging to achieve.  Odds are less than 1% I’d say. It’s more likely to get a recurving baroclinally enhanced storm hit LA, and even then it wouldn’t be a hurricane

With the GFS showing a carribean cyclone train starting early November, might actually back into hyperactivity.  Wild season

Let’s go bruh.  Fantastic news

On 10/18/2024 at 11:20 AM, Windspeed said:

Just when everyone discards 94L to the compactor. That's an organizing mid-level vortex. A bit up in the mid-levels on the beam from San Juan, but it could be close to closing off at the surface. Shear is in the forecast, so I'm unsure how far a potential TC can intensify, but it does appear to be organizating in the short-term.

If @Windspeed can notice this yesterday morning, than the national hurricane center can to.  The “it’s a small system” isn’t an excuse this time.  The NHC’s policy of not naming something until recon gets there bit them in the ass time.  Got to use other data sources other than models and recon. Especially when it’s THIS close to land. No excuses.

hopefully Oscar doesn’t get too strong today because everyone in it’s path is unprepared.

11 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

NHC may have had an active hurricane this morning without advisories all while nearing land. Wow 

It’s ridiculous.  They deserve all the smoke for this literally asleep at the wheel 

To put it in perspective the El Reno tornado was 2.6 miles wide, barely smaller than this eye

1 hour ago, purduewx80 said:

Kinda hard to say NHC dropped the ball with minimal model support the last few days and all scatterometer data showing an open circulation. HWRF was the only model really showing much coming out of it. Even when it looked like a TC on satellite Thursday, recon found no westerly surface winds as ASCAT showed. Chalk it up to being a tiny circulation, I guess. Suspect we get RI into a hurricane today looking at the outflow in a light shear and warmer oceanic environment.

For sure.  But yesterday when it was passing north of PR there were signals it had a closed circulation.  I think the NHC overall has a more conservative policy re: Naming systems and that’s fine, but you might run into situations like today where Oscar suddenly appears.  I hear your point though 

No other way around it the NHC dropped the ball here

6 hours ago, Windspeed said:

Just when everyone discards 94L to the compactor. That's an organizing mid-level vortex. A bit up in the mid-levels on the beam from San Juan, but it could be close to closing off at the surface. Shear is in the forecast, so I'm unsure how far a potential TC can intensify, but it does appear to be organizating in the short-term.

Is what it is bruh the NHC is DONE after Helene and Milton if land isn’t on the table lol.  And I get it, but this has been a slop TC for a minute