Hoosier

Have been going back and forth in my mind about whether we may get an early onset/frontloaded winter or more of a backloaded one. A little early to tell but we are at least seeing some early cold punches.

Well, the area that recently got hammered south of Chicago looks like it's going to get some pretty good rain again, though amounts should be less than last time.

Actually have a signal for some lake effect rain here on Friday. Makes me remember that the 19 year anniversary of the October 7-8, 2000 lake effect snow is approaching. Not gonna snow this time though.

It will be whatever the temp is at 1 am central daylight time (or more precisely, 12:59 am cdt) because the climate days run on standard time.

Indeed

Case in point, still 81 at Midway.

Yeah, 68 on new ob. Literally just needed another 15 minutes or so. Unreal. 02 Oct 12:51 am 68 01 Oct 11:51 pm 81

Hey beavis, looks like this could be close. I forgot it actually has to make it until 1 am central since we are still on daylight savings time. Outflow is currently just south of MKE and moving south but not necessarily racing. It better not come through between 12 and 1 haha.

Breaking is better than tying, but at least you will see 2019 when you check the daily records since the most recent occurrence is listed.

Hoping for a big snowstorm here. Last winter didn't deliver in that regard. The most memorable snow for me was actually the mid April storm, which didn't produce a huge amount of snow imby but had some intense blizzard like conditions.

Here's the latest DJF outlook from CPC. I think most winter lovers in the Midwest would roll the dice with this, especially considering the well-known reluctance to depict blue on seasonal outlooks at this distance.

This thread is for the seasonal outlooks and general discussion. Looks like ENSO may tend to be around neutral on the warm or cool side. Certainly not seeing any indication of a well defined warm or cold event. Going out on a limb but I predict there will be cold and snow.

IND hit 92, breaking the old monthly record of 91.

I could be wrong but I think there is some discretion allowed. Say if the ORD sensor acts up again later and drops to 69 or something but it's clearly illegitimate, then I don't think they have to go with that reading. RC or one of the other mets could clarify though because again I may be misremembering how that works. As far as the monthly record, at this point I think it's more likely than not that it gets broken, but it's not a done deal yet by any means.

It's chilly somewhere

Should end up breaking that monthly record of 91 or at least tie in a worst case scenario.

84 on the new hourly ob. All is right with the world.

I think something is up with the ASOS at ORD. The temp has dropped to 73 for no apparent reason. Can't afford to have funny stuff on a day when they are going for a monthly record!

As someone who is familiar with the staff there (all of them are on the staff here too), I can say that they are good people generally speaking. Most of them are indeed Democrats/left leaning, but there is no conscious effort to treat right leaning posters any differently. Trust me. Your experience should not dissuade any right leaning people from signing up there (if the sign up actually works now lol). As far as threatening to ban you for being a sock, that is something that has been peddled by an individual with no investigative capabilities into the matter. What else can be said?

You laid it out well. I am pretty confident in ORD not dropping below the low 70s overnight tonight, but the big question is what happens Tuesday evening with storms/outflow. If that holds off beyond midnight, then it's very possible that we are looking at that monthly record of 71 being broken. Just have to wait and see and a couple hours either way could make or break it.

Here are the number of times that it has reached 95+ in Louisville by day. As you can see, it becomes extremely uncommon in the final week of September and nonexistent in October.

I don't know if it will get to 100 in Louisville, but it would be very impressive. Mid/upper 90s are almost unheard of in the closing days of September and certainly in October. There was a 99 on 9/29/1953. The latest 100 degree temp in Louisville is September 14 (1897).

Quite the conditional setup for tornadoes. As has been mentioned, the bulk of the activity looks to be on the cool side of the front.

Remember 2007 fondly.