southbuffalowx

13 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:

Those are some crazy rates.


.

It's accumulating really well for the temperature. I didn't think it was snowing that hard until I saw my deck.

Wish I had thought to put a measuring stick on my deck. Guess I'll have to do a final total in the morning.

Ripping in Poughkeepsie and the heavy band hasn't even reached yet. Eyeballing ~7" on my back deck.

There was maybe an inch at 9PM..

51 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

For a lot of people it hurts birthday and family plans. Not just about you. 

I'm getting married this Saturday  Hopefully we can salvage a Saturday this time around!

27 minutes ago, Voyager said:

I'm guessing that white vinyl fence is 6 ft high? If so, the pic of you by your shed shows only about 18 inches of fence showing. That says to me that, even with compaction, you have/had at least 4 feet of snow in your backyard.

It doesn't make sense to measure the final compacted total and call that the snow total. That wouldn't be representative of the effort put into clearing and maintaining roads, parking lots, driveways etc, if 7 feet fell but compacted into to 4 feet.

Thus you need some measurement standard to better represent what actually fell, and that is measuring every 6 hours.

43 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

I'm amazed nobody is talking about potential significant snowfall for the interior NE (Poconos, Catskills and interior NY/New England and possibly even far NWNJ and the Hudson Valley) on Monday night into Tuesday - and what might it take for some snow to reach all the way down to the 95 corridor...

I'm in Poughkeepsie, so I have my eyes on it. I'm worried about any potential tree damage from the heavy wet snow.

Would trees in bloom be more prone to damage than bare trees, similar to a snowstorm in October with leaves still on the trees?

Pinging here in Poughkeepsie, not too much freezing rain accretion thankfully

They upped the ice accretion totals for the MHV up to 0.5":

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of
  a trace to 3 inches and ice accumulations of one tenth to one
  half of an inch

I had no idea they had the latitude to issue a WWA when forecasting up to that much ice. I though the cutoff was 0.25".

Given the upgrades that have occurred through the Ohio valley, it seems likely this gets upgraded to ISW once the event begins.

1 hour ago, crossbowftw3 said:

12z HRRR printing out 1.3” of liquid in ZR for elevations of Ulster and Dutchess Counties, which would work to being dangerously close to the .5” marker for an ISW.

Models have been printing out 0.75-1.25" of ZR liquid across the Ohio valley where ice storm warnings are in place for 0.5"-0.75" of accretion. Using that as a guide to estimate accretion across the mid Hudson valley, it seems like we're on track for a pretty high impact event.

34 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

You guys ready for an insane stat? The low today at Buffalo was 57 degrees. The average high for Buffalo today is 37 degrees.

64/57 was the high low today. The normal for the day is 37/26

MIND BLOWING stats

Not including today's temperatures, since they aren't finalized yet, KBUF would need to average 35.8 or warmer for the remainder of December for 2021 to break 2012's record for warmest year.

You taking the over or under on that?

1 hour ago, DaveTinNY said:

Semiconductors....  some of our 5g phones will be using "chips" from the machines on which I work. 

 

Sounds like we work at the same place! No way I'll be making the drive either

1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said:

Usually when models start spitting out these type numbers there’s something to it. I’m not saying 4 feet but someone in PA or NJ I could see 2-3 feet. 

For what it's worth, I recall the rgem being spot on for the forecast in Binghamton during the December storm. But it was consistent with that jackpot for 12-24 hours prior.

It also did the best job forecasting Buffalo's post Christmas LES storm. It has a pretty good track record.