southbuffalowx

5 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

3k just lit up central Erie county!





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And more importantly, it seems to be trending north! Still going to remain skeptical, but hopeful

Just now, BuffaloWeather said:

Most likely due to Erie freezing, figures we get the flow after we have the ice. 

Unfortunately it looks like by next week lake Erie will probably be mostly frozen over. Maybe it can hold out just enough for a decent event on the first day, but I'm not getting my hopes up. 

Definitely sucks because I move on the 1st and probably won't get to experience decent lake effect storms for a while, unless I book snow vacations to the tug like I read some people on here do.

So did this storm build a lot of cred for the FV3? Because it didn't waver for days, showing the heaviest snows from Western-Central NY, even when other models trended south for a time.

2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Thanks! Same place, Hamburg. I’ve lived in the city, Cheektowaga, Amherst, orchard park, and Hamburg. Hamburg is my favorite.

Yeah, it definitely seems like the ideal place. Close to the city, but far enough south to get better lake effect events! Hopefully, I find myself moving back to Buffalo in 10 years or so and can get a place in the Southtowns 

3 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Just closed on my house! Got an extra $1000 for sticking to my numbers at closing. We had closing at 2 PM and they called at 1:58 to agree to our terms. 

Congrats! Where are you gonna be located now?

3 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

total rippage here. solid 2"hr plus. HUGE flakes too, stuff is pure powder. Easily heaviest rates of the season so far which is impressive to happen on a NW flow in this location...now like you said, if only it could last more than 1/2hr...

Yeah, it already died off here... I'll be happy if we get enough snow to completely cover the grass for a couple of days. I might try to head to holiday valley tomorrow and take advantage of the good conditions while it lasts

Really coming down in South Buffalo right now. If only we could get snow like this to last for a few hours!

8 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

 

I’d say metro window is mid November to mid January... We’ve had some good storms into January but looking date wise things abruptly seem to shut off January 20ish for us. 85 was Jan 19-21. 77 wasn’t lake effect. Looking back I can only find one somewhat impressive strictly lake effect event for Buffalo in the month of February. 1908 which saw a 2 day lake storm dump 22” downtown with winds gusting to 70 mph. That season only saw 27” during Nov-Jan but followed it up with a 36” Feb. 


.

 

I believe that's more due to the lake freezing over around that time, and not due to the weather pattern being less conducive for lake effect in the metro. As long as the lake remains open, lake-effect storms are fair game for the metro. 

10 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Congrats!! Let me know what you think of the nor’easters down there! What field do you work in? 

I definitely will! Hopefully the El nino winter brings a few nice February storms. And engineering at a large manufacturing plant

Accepted an offer for my first job out of school! It's about 60 miles north of NYC, so hopefully Lake Erie gives me one last good lake effect event before I move down in less than a month.

At least this winter is preparing me for what every winter is probably like down there lol

20 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I remember working up in northtowns at the time and almost deciding to stay at my parents place in Amherst after work that evening. I would have walked to Hamburg if I didn’t go home that night despite how unsafe that would have been lol

Haha I definitely considered it! I ended up taking the bus as far as it could take me after the first event, and then walked to my sister's apartment in West Seneca.

The second event didn't hit them too much, but I at least got the satisfaction of helping her shovel the driveway. I got to experience 40" from the Dec 2010 event, so I'm happy with that at least.

17 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Man, it would be hard to be a snow lover residing in the north suburbs of Buffalo.

I was stuck at school in the northern still during the Nov 14 storm, with my house in South Buffalo. I'm still bitter about staying at school because I didn't want to miss work lol

1 minute ago, rochesterdave said:

Snow in Jamestown and Niagara Falls!

Precip lightened and turned back to rain but the cold air is there!

Out doing some Christmas shopping, and it's starting to snow here in Niagara Falls.

Seems like there's a pretty significant discrepancy in the models timing the frontal passage. I have to drive to Albany on Thursday afternoon, so as much as I'd love for the snow to park over the metro for a few extra hours, I'm hoping it pushes south by 2pm.

1 hour ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

This would be like the most perfect metro hit would could hope for! Can’t ever underestimate a SW flow event. If it can get cranking early and not dance around too much could be a good hit.

The Hi-Res Canadian drops up to 18" across the Northtowns. 

About 3.5-4" here, which is better than I was expecting given my location in South Buffalo near the lake. 

Even though the Buffalo Metro hasn't gotten nearly as much snow as most other areas, it's hard to believe that it's still November, given that it feels like we've been tracking snow for a while now.

Hopefully this is a sign of things to come for the rest of Winter.

14 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Erie band is just cranking right now. Moving north into the metro. Just getting into the north side of the band here now and it is pouring rain. Have a few small wet flakes mixing in... Let’s see what happens...




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Flipping back and forth between rain and snow in South Buffalo near the lake, even under the heaviest returns. 2 degrees colder and we'd probably have something interesting.

1 hour ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Don’t think I’ve ever seen the BTV pop reds in a LES band before... I’ll really be bummed if this busts...



I won't be in Buffalo this weekend, so I'm betting it's gonna happen. 

3 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

November 20-21, 2016.  Rochester got 12-15 inches of snow.  It was a large storm that came through the lakes, redeveloped off the coast, then stalled for a few days.   Probably lake effect on the backside included in those totals. 

I'm not sure if you could consider that a true synoptic event. If it wasn't for the lakes, there would not have been much of a storm. Here's the event synopsis from the 2016 winter summary.

A deep area of low pressure slowly traveled across southern Quebec over the weekend of the 19th and 20th. This system transported Atlantic moisture over the Eastern Great Lakes that fed abundant moisture into bands of lake effect snow that fell southeast of the Lower Great Lakes on a cold northwest flow. Nearly a foot of snow fell in spots southeast of Lake Erie, while more widespread amounts of a foot to a foot and a half fell from the Genesee Valley to the Northern Finger Lakes region. Across the southern Tug Hill region upwards to two feet of snow fell from this system.

Here is the summary for the 2013 synoptic event I just mentioned. 

A synoptic low brought widespread snow late on the 26th and through Wednesday the 27th. This storm brought several inches of snow, with upwards of a half a foot of snow found across the Genesee Valley and Eastern Lake Ontario region, and near a foot across the hills well south of Buffalo.

33 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Ok fellow weenies...i know we've had our fair share of LES events in November but when is the last significant synoptic storm we've had in November??? I'm struggling to remember one!!!

I remember we got like 5-6" around Buffalo just prior to Thanksgiving in 2013 from a synoptic event. Nothing crazy, but I think that qualifies. 

https://buffalonews.com/2018/10/24/buffalos-new-radar-angle-will-help-get-better-weather-data-for-erie-pa/

Be interesting to see this in action this winter

So did anyone else see this on the GFS-fv3? Absolutely nuts to see that level of cold on a weather model before Halloween. 

Hopefully we don't see too much cold, because it'll drain the lakes of their warmth so early

5 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

The European model will now be running every 6 hours like the GFS. 

That's interesting. When is that supposed to begin?

13 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

So while I struggle with the simple task of attaching a file to this thread I will point anyone interested to the 12z GFS at hour 240. It's a quick shot but the GFS has been consistent inverting to bring a definite shot of cold weather for a day or 2 around the Oct 6 through 8 timeframe.

I'm going to be camping in the Adirondacks that weekend, so it's safe to say I'm keeping an eye on that cold shot. Hoping to see some snow on the peaks, but we'll see.