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cutlew

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Posts posted by cutlew

    3/15-3/16 Winter Storm

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    I took ~90 measurements in a grid across my backyard and came up with 3.0", which seems about right considering the drifts and scoured areas.  The gauge caught 0.40", which means the ratio is terrible, as it always is when the wind is strong.  The kuchera map predicted a ratio well above 10.
    This stuff was a major pain to clean up.  It's dense, with a layer of either wet snow or ice on the bottom.  

    That’s some dedication. My wife laughed at me for doing like 10 measurements just in one line across the yard

    3/15-3/16 Winter Storm

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    14-16” reports down in Red Wing where my ski hill is. Think I’ll “work from home” today…

    Even with the heavy band missing the metro has a solid 8-14” from north to south. No records breaking like in WI but the best winter storm for the area in 3 years.
    • Like 1

    3/15-3/16 Winter Storm

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    Can’t remember the last time the entire state of WI plus the UP were under a WSW (much less a blizzard warning) all at the same time.

    Also the line of convection from Mackinac Island all the way down to Houston is something to behold.

    • Like 1

    3/15-3/16 Winter Storm

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    It has snowed all afternoon as modeled with visibility between 1-2mi. I have noticed shoveled/plows surfaces have stayed wet instead of accumulating new snow and there has been compaction elsewhere. Spring.

    Yep we had a solid 2 hours of dendrites coming down nicely and they barely added to the total and the car outside was just wet. Gonna call it 11.5” here storm total but hard to be exact with the drifting

    3/15-3/16 Winter Storm

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    This deformation band parked over the Twin Cities has picked up noticeably in intensity the last hour or so. More frequent winds too. Might bode well for those of you interested in its evolution over the next 12-18 hours.
    Measured about 11" otg here when I took the dog out at 1:30. Maybe another inch or so if these bands can stay for a while longer. My parents' house up in the NE corner of WI is at 24" from the band that just finally moved out. Crazy they're in line for another 6-12"+ once the storm ramps up again overnight

    View from their house in WI this morning. The trees are maybe 100 yards from the window.

    7aba75fb92b14c682aa776cb559bf8fb.jpg
    • Like 6

    3/15-3/16 Winter Storm

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    This deformation band parked over the Twin Cities has picked up noticeably in intensity the last hour or so. More frequent winds too. Might bode well for those of you interested in its evolution over the next 12-18 hours.

    Measured about 11" otg here when I took the dog out at 1:30. Maybe another inch or so if these bands can stay for a while longer. My parents' house up in the NE corner of WI is at 24" from the band that just finally moved out. Crazy they're in line for another 6-12"+ once the storm ramps up again overnight

    • Thanks 1

    3/15-3/16 Winter Storm

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    That jives with what I’m measuring 1-2mi north of the airport. 

    Edit: actually maybe 7.3 officially, the 7.6 was at NWS office? Academic though.

    Hard to be disappointed about the relative “underperformance” with those numbers across the metro at our latitude. Especially knowing it was always gonna be a +/- 50 miles situation with the heaviest band.

    3/15-3/16 Winter Storm

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    This new band should help the totals a bit. All depends on how long it sticks around. Really coming down right now.


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    IMG_1896.thumb.png.6712f75c275fb3433d9429e5c88e17a5.png

    Yeah coming down nice in this secondary heavy right now. 7” over here in Woodbury as of 7 am and I’m guessing MSP is doing at least as well given they reported 5” at midnight.

    Looks like jackpot zone of 10-15 from Rochester over to Wausau and then a buffer zone of 6-10 up to the southern half of the metro. Bummer for the north side though being so close. AIFS over the past few days was the closest with the placement.

    Most models showing 4-6” additional today over here so that 12-13 threshold for significant storm still in play for MSP?


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    3/15-3/16 Winter Storm

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted


    I don’t have the data to support but I’m pretty sure our upper echelon storms start to cluster around 12-13”. Anything over that is pretty good for us.


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    Feel like we get an annual 8-10” where some place in the area goes over a foot (just not MSP airport proper) but I also think it’s hard to actually get enough moisture this far up north to go over a foot area-wide without a lake nearby.

    Instead we get a decent amount of the prairie/plains climate getting a few inches here or there and holding onto them while it’s below zero every night for 2 weeks.

    3/15-3/16 Winter Storm

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted


    I’m not sure I quite buy it. They’ve held steady all day on the band over the metro. Seems odd that there is such a dramatic shift in one run as things are starting.


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    Well last night the 0z Hi Res group had us under sleet / dry slot and the death band in Hinckley at this hour so we might get better predictability just dusting off the old Microsoft Paint.

    Anyways bird in the hand is worth two in the bush; I measured 2” as of 10 pm under this initial band, comes out to ~0.75” per hour or so.


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    3/15-3/16 Winter Storm

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    I wish there were more MN posters. I can only post so much on the weekdays with job and parenting duties. 
     
    NAM has me nervous but I’m chalking it up to NAM doing NAM things. 8-24” is a comfortable range at this juncture. 

    Did you like the HRRR this afternoon bringing the SLP up into Minnesota
    • Haha 2
    • Crap 1

    January 2026 General Discussion

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    Wow, that’s surprising how low the depth is. Sorry to hear that. I guess even MSP isn’t immune to maintaining a healthy snow cover, even during the heart of winter. The depth has actually decreased by 4” since 1/1, even with a cold January and 4.1” of snowfall during the month (that’s a very low snowfall amount, but you’d think it would have helped at least maintain the 6” depth from 1/1).
    There were a few mild days earlier in the month, plus the MSP urban environment probably doesn’t help. Ugh…we need to get past this dry/chinook pattern. Obviously it has been cold recently, but the angle of the cold is all wrong. I used to laugh when Joe Bastardi would say that, but it’s true. This is why you need to build up a snow cover early in the season, to withstand the inevitable dry periods. 

    Yep we’ve done slightly better not melting outside the city, I’d eyeball 4” imby


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    January 2026 General Discussion

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    That’s very impressive, especially with the significant UHI at MSP. Of course there’s snow cover there and upstream, which helps…and the nights are still fairly long.
    What’s your current snow depth, and what was the max depth this season?

    Officially 2” otg at MSP, max was 10” back in mid December. We’ve slowly inched our way back down and flirted with bare ground a few times but got the surprise post Christmas storm and some little snows to keep us with some snow.


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    • Like 2
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