LansingWeather

8 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

3km NAM looks to be way under-doing surface temps compared to the Euro.  It looks like it has extensive cloud cover that limits heating throughout the day, and resulting in a stout EML above the cooler surface temps.  The Euro has been advertising a much more mixed, warmer surface regime for many days, and results in surface temps 10+ degrees warmer.  It continues to insist on convection taking off later Tue afternoon over northern IL, in a fairly impressive thermodynamic environment.  It will be interesting to see which model wins out.  

My money would be on the NAM being correct. Just based on climatology and the preceeding even which was halted by a large amount of clouds.

I really can see clouds being a major problem with this set up. Hope I am wrong though, looks like (here at least) a large hail threat.

8 hours ago, hlcater said:

I’m still mad about that

Sucks for us, but its a good thing. Especially for now because literally everyone is home.

1 minute ago, CoalCityWxMan said:

Technically yes. Just as long as you’re smart & avoid gathering in groups while waiting, being smart while getting gas (gloves, hand sanitizer, etc) & just being smart it should be fine. Planning on heading out but am gonna bring all my own food and water 

I would be coming from Michigan, not sure if crossing into states is permitted or not. I guess I will need to do some reading.

Is it possible to chase this with the lockdown in Illinois?

It would seem my time in Puerto Rico was short.

I left back for the states March 11, because I was worried about supply chain there as COVID-19 starts getting worse.

And today basically the whole island is shut down. 5am-9pm you can only leave your house for "permitted activities" I.e. food, doctors, drugs.

All beaches, parks, bars, restaurants, entertainment, is all shit down. Punishable by 6 months in jail and/or $5k fine.

PR is not a place I want to be stuck.

Crap is hitting the fan quickly. Will be highly interesting to see the coming days and weeks.... Stay safe all.

3 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Where did you fly to?

Back home to Puerto Rico

On 2/9/2020 at 5:22 PM, Stebo said:

Hardest snow I have seen working this year, down to 1/4SM at DTW right now.

Just reading through...Yeah  was awesome yesterday at DTW. My plane left at 6:10pm yesterday. Was really heavy! This storm was a pleasant surprise on the way out.

Pretty incredible. Snowed for so long, and all we got was ~2" lol. I mean we had constant snow for ~24hrs and that was all we managed. Pretty nuts.

3 hours ago, WeatherMonger said:

Nah, wasn't that bad lol. I created it way back when a lot of accu members jumped over here, lot of them IL posters. I've lurked frequently, had to create an account to be able to view images being posted 

 

Having quite a few smarter than most members here and some legit Mets. Makes it a little intimidating to post being an enthusiast and not actually schooled in weather.

I recognized your name right away. Good to see you again, this handle is different from my accuweather one. Does Jdrenken (or w/e) use this forum? Havent seen him on here under that name.

1 hour ago, RogueWaves said:

Top 1/2" will cool down ofc. Going off somebody's post from down that way saying he has 49F soil temps currently. Not like it's going down below zero prior to the incoming snow. 

where was that at? Cincinnati??

21 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

Coming on 50F soils tho, it'll be more like an April event. Tough "open" winter around the Lwr Lakes. 

Uh????????????????? No?

How do you even say crap like that? It was warm today but will cool off in N OH and around here, then tomorrow highs in the low 40s. The soils are going to be mid 30s, tops.

41 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

Hoping to get down there again this fall.  Been down there 3 times in the last 25 years.  My paternal grandfather was born and raised in the Aguas Buenas area before going to IU to become a dentist and serving in WWII as a medical officer in the European theater.  He retired back to PR the mid 70's offering free dental to the people where he grew up.  I was fortunate enough to go there 25 years ago prior to his passing and meet an extended family and what an absolutely beautiful part of the Island Aguas Buenas is.  True to it's name it's one of the best places I've ever traveled to.  My brother and I are trying to plan a trip again this coming fall to see some of our half brothers and sisters and their family's again as we are the eldest grandchildren and life is flying by.  I remember my grandfather telling me one of the biggest things he missed about the US besides his  US family was snow.  He said he was 18 when he experienced his first snow in Bloomington and his classmates thought he was crazy because he sat outside all night as it fell having never seen it before lol.  I wish more Americans would travel there, it truly is a beautiful island and the people, the food and culture there are amazing.  Sorry for off topic.

Aguas buenas is awesome! (so is the whole island!) but the weather is rather boring for me. thats what I hate most about it

3 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Nice thought.  Won't happen, but nice thought 

Glad i'm going back to summer...Stayed here too log because I thought it would turn around lol. Leaving for PR on the 9th, cant wait.

I can practically guarantee winter to come sometime after Feb 9th. I booked my flight back to Puerto Rico then and with out fail, every time I do it becomes snowy in the Lakes...

This storm is pure garbage over here...Tried to get some fun, we were flipping back and forth between sleet and snow. Saw some heavier returns to my west, thought i'd see some large flakes. When I got there everything turned to rain. So that was lame.

2 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

Alek's calls this winter have been $$. 

Don't go against seasonal patterns lol.

6 minutes ago, weatherbo said:

I say let buckeye vent.

 

True, its sucks to get shafted. But this is why there is a banter/complaint thread.

18 minutes ago, buckeye said:

Are you kidding?   Maybe that's because SOME people have had no winter at all....  

Seriously, you have been incredibly lucky.   Look at the two storms that have made up 90% of your snowfall.  One was a freak mid November record-setter and the other was a garbage storm that rode to your nw with a perfectly timed combination of WAA and a departing antecedent HP that had only been around for like a day to begin with.  Detroit's location in that whole mess was about as perfect as you could ask in that set up.   Your area was literally an island of winterstorm warnings surrounded by a sea of winter weather advisories. 

You are above normal snowfall but it's not because it's been a good winter pattern.   Aren't you always saying  that clippers are your bread and butter in a typical good winter?   How much clipper snow have you received?

 

 

Wow calm down.

There is a massive difference between living in Michigan and right at the 40th parallel. And, it doesnt matter how we get to normal or above as long as it gets there.

This is a very normal winter, yes we had a very warm stretch, but that probably makes up for the anomalous cold snaps the last few years.

Some winters are snowy, some just aren't as snowy. Its even worse for you, but don't snap because we have had  more snow than you, its just normal. And just about everyone here talks strictly about their BY.

2 hours ago, weatherbo said:

I know, It is amazing!  From Superior to my house (as the crow would fly) is between 5-6 miles and has an elevation difference of just over a 1000' ft.  I describe this as a snow belt within a snow belt.  If the forecast call is between 1-3', I'm the 3'.  Another thing I've noticed is that 9 times out of 10, lake events here over perform.  It's still snowing moderately but was suppose to end by 9 am, with only an additional inch.

2 hours ago, (((Will))) said:

Where did you live in southern Michigan?

I would love it up there, what do you guys do for work?

How do you deal with the bugs in the summer? Ive been to the UP in June and the bugs were miserable, then the black flies come out lol.

I would love the snow up there, I hate fighting the mix line here on most storms, and getting a 10 inch snow pack is super rare here.

8 minutes ago, Harry Perry said:

Ended up with 3” of snow here... pouring sleet and freezing rain at the the moment. Light glaze on everything. 24°. 

that is really bad news for me........

6 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

Even my office calls this a very impressive WAA scenario as currently modeled. Admitting that the traditional method generates more than the going call. Also pretty much said they went low-end with amounts. 

They did and im pretty irritated they went with a WWA and not watch TBH.

Well, another lame write-up from GRR. They used to be so detailed but now the majority of the time the write-ups are very short...

Not much change to the model guidance on the evolution of the
storm over the weekend. We are thinking a general 3 to 5 inch
event with most of that falling Friday night in a pattern of
strong warm advection/isentropic ascent followed by a period on
Saturday of rain or mixed precipitation as the sfc low tracks
across the forecast area. We could be dry slotted part of Saturday
with snow on the backside transitioning to lake effect snow
showers Saturday evening. Strong cold advection and pressure
gradient could result in blowing snow as temperatures plummet.

Thats the whole write-up on the storm...

9 hours ago, Malacka11 said:

I swear upon my timberlands, if this system dares to be a rainer, or even a mix, I will move to Cuba.

You can come to PR, close to there but probably better lol. Its pretty nice here. (Im in Lansing for the meteorological winter because i'm a weenie!)

well we have now switched from sleet to freezing rain - finally. I didnt actually think we would get FZRA because it went right to sleet and the low is going well south of here.

Not a lot of icing going on though, temp is 31.6. Hopefully we can keep the FZRA while temp lowers a bit more. I am still hoping for .5" if ice...but not expecting it.

Wow. Ice Storm may be DOA...

Switched from rain to sleet right as the temp was 32.4, now 100% sleet with slight accumulation at 32.0. Not a good sign.