phoenixny

6 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

Clearly, they aren’t  onboard with Team Kuchera.

That's a tough business to be in. 

No one reporting anything under 1/2 mile at 9pm for NWS stations.

Pittsburgh radar is impressive.

Team Wayne Mahar has not budged on totals. 10 to 16 for us. Kinda a big deal with locals.  Teske/Mahar amounts. 10-16 vs 18+ 

24 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

Theres a definite chance we go to Blizzard warnings if it gets much worse!

We don't need that! Busting your balls a bit on that one. I want one damnit.

9 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

Rice snow continues IMBY.  Measured another 1.5” at 9pm...that’s over a 3 hr period.  Total is 3.5”.  Unimpressive entry level snowfall thus far but even if the meso banding fails (which I doubt) we will end up with 6-10”. Which isn’t bad.  Just trying to figure out a worst case scenario.  Wind has picked up.

KBGM now thinking So. Tier of NY stays more snowy with mix being more limited.  Hopefully that’s right.

I have been drinking so trust your measurements more than mine. We are close and it's not lake effect. Lmao

Hell yea! Measured 5" in Phoenix and winds are increasing. Mother load incoming!

1 minute ago, wolfie09 said:

Here is wpc 72 hr precip, they seem to make an attempt at ratios lol

Thanks

Yes it is! Trends are for the Thruway corridor to get smoked! Enjoy everyone.

5 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

Game Day!   Take 'em up!

Gotta go hit golf balls this a.m. then furniture shopping then get gas for snowblower.

Hey Wolfie, Is that NCEP product using 10 to 1 ratios? Just curious. 

2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Just now, Syrmax said:

FV3 is still in testing. Scheduled to replace GFS later this year. So for now runs after GFS and can be tweaked before becoming operational, I believe.

Knew that but not sure why the test 6 hr stuff shows up on your but not Pivotal. Doing something wrong. Thanks!

Am I stupid? I don't see the test stuff when I check Pivotal.

Just now, Syrmax said:

That's a good look!

What's the test model?

Great question! Not sure if they change it to Blizzard Warning or if changes within the WSW output.

Love the FV3 ON HOUR 288.

Have learned over the years you don't need super low pressure to get heavy snow but expected this to go under 990. Rapid intensification type stuff. Not in the cards for bombo I guess but maybe when over Atlantic. Think it's gonna look like a beaut on satellite though!

See sub 990 mb on some of those.

5 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

I'm having a hard time accepting the 1-3" forecasted for tomorrow then 8-12" tomorrow night, I think we see more during the day tomorrow.

Are we dealing with a lot of dry air to start on this? 

1 minute ago, DeltaT13 said:

Blizzard criteria is sometimes listed as only needing to have frequent gusts above 35 for the wind component. In that case we verify sometime overnight Saturday. 

I have always thought that it needed to be sustained at 35 with higher gusts. Thanks for clarifying.

Just now, Syrmax said:

PHX is stingy with snow days. What was it last week there was a pretty nasty day where most schools delayed then packed it in for the day. Not Phoenix....

They should of delayed. Bad call, so will close for sure on next one. My wife said many parents bitched at directly to Super.

Buy you and Ty a beer at Duskies if no county goes to  Blizzard Warnings by Sunday morning. Ha! All states included!!!

5 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

Biggest issue will be achieving sustained wind speeds. I'll bet we end up close but no cigar, from a strict definition standpoint.

Bitched so many times at New England Blizzard Warnings that never verify! We might have our chance during the next three weeks as someone just posted. I still have a kid at PCSD asking me on Tuesday snow day potential!!! 

I hear ya but not gonna right it off completely as there is massive hype, and have seen blizzard warnings before that never verify for Oswego and Otsego County. Last one for me was 93 which verified. Long time. Wish this was down to a 980 in southwest Pa. Gonna be fun none the less.