raindancewx

Locally we tend to see more robust monsoon precipitation, advancement and development when the snow pack is destroyed early in the season. At the automated snow measurement site on Ski Taos at 11,000 feet above sea level, we had ~40 inches of snowpack left on 5/23/23. In 2026, that was the day the snowpack fully melted. Would prefer not to relive July 2023, as it's essentially as warm as it can get here due to the complete lack of rain in our wettest month. I believe its our warmest month on record. Fortunately the source of the July 2023 heatwave here was the June 2023 heatwave in Mexico, which is not present. The El Nino developing still looks pretty different from 2023-24. My records from June 2023 show towns even at 8,000+ in elevation in Central Mexico were running over 90 degrees for highs, v. typical readings in the low 70s. Some of those same towns have had rain-cooled highs in the 60s already this month. Sum 3070 2240 - - 0 649 T 0.0 - Average 99.0 72.3 85.6 6.7 - - - - 0.0 Normal 91.2 66.5 78.9 - 0 429 1.64 0.0 - 2023-07-01 92 67 79.5 0.7 0 15 0.00 0.0 0 2023-07-02 95 69 82.0 3.1 0 17 0.00 0.0 0 2023-07-03 96 67 81.5 2.5 0 17 0.00 0.0 0 2023-07-04 98 70 84.0 5.0 0 19 0.00 0.0 0 2023-07-05 99 68 83.5 4.5 0 19 0.00 0.0 0 2023-07-06 99 69 84.0 4.9 0 19 T 0.0 0 2023-07-07 97 72 84.5 5.4 0 20 T 0.0 0 2023-07-08 96 71 83.5 4.4 0 19 T 0.0 0 2023-07-09 100 68 84.0 4.9 0 19 0.00 0.0 0 2023-07-10 99 78 88.5 9.4 0 24 T 0.0 0 2023-07-11 101 78 89.5 10.4 0 25 T 0.0 0 2023-07-12 100 75 87.5 8.4 0 23 0.00 0.0 0 2023-07-13 99 74 86.5 7.4 0 22 0.00 0.0 0 2023-07-14 103 74 88.5 9.4 0 24 0.00 0.0 0 2023-07-15 100 74 87.0 8.0 0 22 0.00 0.0 0 2023-07-16 100 71 85.5 6.5 0 21 0.00 0.0 0 2023-07-17 104 70 87.0 8.0 0 22 0.00 0.0 0 2023-07-18 103 75 89.0 10.1 0 24 T 0.0 0 2023-07-19 101 75 88.0 9.1 0 23 T 0.0 0 2023-07-20 101 79 90.0 11.1 0 25 0.00 0.0 0 2023-07-21 98 73 85.5 6.7 0 21 T 0.0 0 2023-07-22 97 69 83.0 4.2 0 18 0.00 0.0 0 2023-07-23 95 68 81.5 2.8 0 17 0.00 0.0 0 2023-07-24 100 73 86.5 7.8 0 22 0.00 0.0 0 2023-07-25 103 76 89.5 10.9 0 25 0.00 0.0 0 2023-07-26 102 72 87.0 8.4 0 22 T 0.0 0 2023-07-27 101 75 88.0 9.5 0 23 T 0.0 0 2023-07-28 100 73 86.5 8.1 0 22 T 0.0 0 2023-07-29 98 71 84.5 6.1 0 20 T 0.0 0 2023-07-30 97 75 86.0 7.7 0 21 0.00 0.0 0 2023-07-31 96 71 83.5 5.2 0 19 T 0.0 0

The very cold Western US + MX heatwave in June 2023 are nowhere to be found so far. It's been quite warm in the West so far this June, and the monsoon in Mexico has been in full swing at normal timing. Much of the West was 5F below average in June 2023. Nino 4 was already about 30.0C in May - record warmth. Nino 3.4 finished below May 2015. The precip pattern depicted on the June run for DJF looks like a blend of 1997-98, 2009-10, 2012-13, 2015-16. Looks to me like an MJO 6-7 blend with major +IOD contributions by East Africa. The Canadian Update in June did move the greatest precipitation area v. means much further east in the tropics, which is a good sign for canonical El Nino impacts.

On the May update, the Euro had Nino 4 getting to 2-2.5C above the 30-year mean in December. That's a huge body of water, and far less volatile than the more eastern areas of the Tropical Pacific. The correlation isn't super strong - but with a very extreme reading, of say 30.5C+ or warmer - never achieved on record - you have to assume we get close to the long-term trend. Your 29.5C+ Decembers are 1994, 2006 (both just under but over 29.4), 2009, 2015, 2018, 2023. Basically dead on to the correlation. Also consistent with Decembers following my hottest 10 Marches of the past 100 years. I'd go 2-4 degrees warmer in the warmer areas and 1-2 degrees colder in the white areas based on the extremity forecast for December.

For the 100-180W subsurface, Mar-May, 1997 and 2026 are nearly identical Year March/April/May 1997 1.17 / 2.17 / 2.01 2026 1.36 / 2.24 / 2.00 https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt

New Canadian run has a nice Summer for me - wet and cool, especially June/July. Monsoon very strong for Mexico and the SW US. Cold winter for the eastern US depicted, although Jan is pretty cold in most of the country. Gulf of Alaska low is kind of...south of the Gulf of Alaska.

May 2026 nationally looks a lot like May 1997, 1994, and 1940. Somewhat like 2006 and 2009. Not really like 2015 or 2023 or 1982 or 1965 or 1972 or 1957 or 1991. Actually pretty unusual for the NW/West to be the warmest area of the US with El Nino conditions. Locally, April and May have so far trended similarly to average April-May highs following our hottest Marches ever. December and August both have 4-5 years in the 10 hottest March grouping that are at least two degrees colder than long-term average highs. For August, only 17 years for 1931-2025 are 2F are more below the 95 year average. So it's 12/85 v 5/10 if you separate out the hottest March years. If your hypothesis is "August following a top-ten warm March" has the same frequency of cold highs as any other March, a difference in proportions test would say you are wrong because the P value is ~0.004 - well under 0.05. Only 48/95 Augusts are colder than average for highs locally. But 7/10 are following a top 10 hot August. 41 / 85 v. 7/ 10 is not statistically significant. So if we have a cold August, its likely to be quite cold, but its not meaningfully more likely that we have a cold August locally. 2026 52.5 62.7 76.5 73.3 80.0 M M M M M M M 69.0 1972 51.2 58.7 71.1 75.2 81.2 90.3 93.1 86.4 80.6 68.3 50.9 47.3 71.2 1974 45.6 53.7 69.5 73.3 85.4 96.3 90.9 85.5 78.4 68.6 58.0 43.7 70.7 2017 48.9 58.4 69.4 70.5 78.4 93.2 92.1 88.0 83.6 72.1 65.4 53.1 72.8 1989 47.9 54.9 68.8 77.8 85.1 90.5 92.1 86.8 82.8 69.5 60.2 47.7 72.0 2011 48.1 50.5 67.4 72.6 77.9 93.6 94.5 93.8 82.9 71.4 57.2 42.8 71.1 1967 48.1 54.7 67.3 72.7 79.3 85.7 92.2 86.7 81.1 73.4 59.7 41.9 70.2 1934 51.0 58.5 67.0 72.7 83.3 88.9 94.8 90.6 80.9 75.3 57.8 49.0 72.5 1997 43.5 51.5 66.7 64.1 78.7 86.3 90.0 87.9 82.8 69.9 54.5 41.7 68.1 2015 47.9 57.3 66.3 70.1 74.0 90.8 88.4 91.5 86.2 72.0 56.9 46.9 70.7 2016 47.5 59.8 66.2 68.9 77.1 93.3 95.6 85.8 83.2 75.9 58.6 49.7 71.8

No PDO flip this year. If you call 1957/1958 spiking positive in the -PDO cycle prior as the same point as 2014/2015, we're around 1968 now. We're within a decade, as it's not exact, but I'd bet the PDO doesn't average positive for Nov-Apr. We're probably in something like 1965-66 El Nino strength at 1968 timing cyclically, which was a big El Nino about a decade from the +PDO flip. I'd expect continuing regression toward 0 and a month or two may poke above it, but Nov-Apr won't be over 0. AMO on the other hand...might be this year. Atlantic in May is night and day different to 2023. The colder water by NZ v. 2023 also bodes well for more typical El Nino conditions in the West. Cold/Colder AMO is a decent wet signal and cold signal in winter for a lot of the US.

The first big test for the 2023 comparison is the big Mexican heat wave in June 2023. That's very rare in El Ninos back to 1870s there. Only a couple in the 1950s and 1982 had it before 2023 in June, and really the 1982 heat wave core was closer to Texas. May to date is a Warm West / Cold Eastern 2/3 US pattern, while May 2023 was a warm north central pattern / cold east setup. So it's pretty different so far. Models don't really have any excessive heat waves for Mexico in May-June I can see. It's been a bit warm there this month, but more from warm nights with rain and near average highs from what I can see. The ~98F today in Philadelphia is actually similar to heat waves in May 1991, 1941, 1987, 1939, 2006, 1986 events. No May heat waves present in years like 1972, 1982, 1997, 2015 from what I can see.

You are an idiot. The fact that it offends you just means you believe it. Presumably if I called you an pedophile you wouldn't be offended because you're not a pedophile. You spend these threads trashing ideas hiding behind idiotic premises of "bull busting" so no one can call your behavior. Its an excuse to criticize what you don't like and then when someone dares criticize you you hiss and moan like a little baby and run to the mods. You dish and refuse to take. You never actually learn anything. Here are all the Super that don't "self destruct" which has been the entire premise of your theory this entire thread out of the left side of your mouth, while on the right side you hem and haw about how it won't be a super event anyway. Literally half of the ENSOs at/over +2.0C haven't self-destructed, so yes it is an idiotic idea that could be disprove with five seconds of thinking, which you don't do. Anything that has a 50/50 tendency is not a tendency. 1957-58 became 1958-59 after hitting +2.0C. 1965-66 became 1966-67, 1991-92 became 1992-93 - none of those are La Ninas. 1997-98, 1982-83, 1972-73, 2015-2016 arguably became La Nina but even those are kind of bullshit La Nina since 1983-84 and 2016-17 were extremely warm by South America and below the surface. So the entire premise...is at best 50/50 which is again...stupid as a baseline for forecasting.

Chuck is right, the tendencies you base your ideas on are so small that its not even likely to be causal - its just noise. You literally can't even compare 30 El Ninos in 100 years to 30 La Ninas with reliable outputs because the groups are so small, one of 30 event behaving differently changes the outcome by 3% - that's massive. Saying the events are self destructive is kind of idiotic when the Neutrals are behaviorally very similar to very weak La Ninas. In that sense, the 2/3 scenario is..."Not El Nino", not 'self destruction'. Most La Ninas are actually not followed by El Ninos. Just look at the past 30 years: 1998 - no, 1999 - no, 2000 - no, 2007 - no, 2010 - no, 2011 - no, 2016 - no, 2020 - no, 2021 - no, 2024 - no. Only 2005, 2008, 2017, 2022, 2025 are. Its 2:1 against "self-destruction". If it favored self-destruction it'd be 2:1 the other way. El Ninos are similar too - 2002, 2003, 2014, 2018 were all followed by El Nino/near El Nino, only 2006, 2009, 2015, 2019, 2023 were not. That's basically dead even for 25 years not exactly assuring "self destruction" like you're implying. You're just fixated on noise

If you look at March 2026, it was very +NAO, very -WPO, transitioning La Nina-->El Nino. The blend is closest in magnitude to 1986, 2014, and directly opposite March 1980, 2010 for all three factors. Been decent for March & April so far for a very simple conceptual match, although 2026 has been more extreme. March: 1986, 2014, -1980, -2010 April: 1986, 2014, -1980, -2010 - might be decent by month end. Both the super -WPO and super +NAO in March support a pretty cold West in December. The maps are correlation based so +NAO green = warm, blue cold, -WPO green = cold, blue = warm. The 1986, 2014, -1980, -2010 blend is almost identical to the -WPO blend.

One major difference for the upcoming El Nino is we've had far drier winters nationally than heading into 2023-24. The precip pattern for 2025-26 is a lot like 1985-86 and 1962-63. Blend the precip-matches, with strong El Nino and -PDO El Ninos, warm by 1F, roll back one year, and you get a good match to last winter - although extremes are too dull.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt 100-180W warmth, 0-300m down for Jan/Feb/Mar. 2026: +0.49 / +1.15 / +1.28 Closest Matches since 1979 - all too cold v. CFS/Canadian for US temps in April. 1997/2015 are close - but 1997 is more impressive since it followed multiple cold ENSO years while 2015 followed...a weak El Nino. We've warmed up way faster than 1982 or 2023 as well. 2019: +0.59 / +0.94 / +1.19 2015: +0.15 / +0.83 / +1.52 1997: +0.56 / +1.00 / +1.17 1990: +0.78 / +1.08 / +1.14 Blend: +0.52 / +0.96 / +1.26 You can verify if "El Nino" ish stuff is happening without the US data. Japan maps anomalies monthly with a bit of a lag. https://www.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/climate/climatview/frame.php?&s=7&r=4&d=0&y=2026&m=2&e=4&t=1000&l=5115&k=0&s=7

Actually, 1972 qualifies as well. Followed two cold ENSOs, high solar, negative AMO, negative PDO. 1968 and 1972 are the best matches on the variables - +ENSO, following two -ENSOs, high solar, -AMO, -PDO.

The El Ninos following two cold ENSOs (not 1 or 3 or more or many neutrals), with high solar are relatively rare - 1968. 1982. 1997. 2009. 2018 each El Nino follows two cold Ensos in a row. Only 1968, 1982, 1997 are relatively active for solar. PDO is negative in 1968 with AMO negative. Both look likely/possible, we've got the cold flipped C from Iceland to all the way around West Africa. Stupidly cold in March as a blend but I doubt those three years will work. Conceptually, you have: 2026: -AMO, -PDO, El Nino, High Solar, after two cold ENSOs for this winter. That's like 1968, next closest is 1982/1997/2009/2018. Anti 2026: +AMO, +PDO, La Nina, Low Solar, after two warm ENSOs for the winter: That's 1995, 2016, 2020 Would look like this in concept - probably not as severe in reality. Somewhere between 2023-2024 and the above image is my guess.

April 1982 and April 1997 were very cold US-wide. CFS has the opposite. If it isn't drunk on its own delusions, you'd say April 2026 looks like a blend of 1963, 2002, 2015, 2019, minus 1982, 1997. Conceptually, the big El Nino following big La Nina with low solar is a very cold winter here. We don't have that combo for this winter. We have high solar, good El Nino following weak La Nina/neutral. It's probably more of a very wet winter here than very cold. More likely: 1997 and 1982 already had dominant impacts on the global pattern by April, and the upcoming El Nino does not. April on the CFS looks a lot like winter 2004-2005, if the greatest warmth was fully shifted south.

There has been a signal for a while for a good system in the SW around 3/5-3/9. It's been showing up intermittently on the models. Time frame is correct for a repeat of the mid-January system that triggered (or emerged from) the pattern change. Doubt anything resembling the true outcome will show for another 3-5 days though.

Outside of the RONI which is essentially a global warming signal in the Tropics, the winter behaviorally is more like a cold neutral with a -PDO. SSTs, SOI, subsurface and actual surface conditions are Neutral. You have high subtropical jet energy, less subtropical ridging, different MJO progression, a warm subsurface all winter compared to Nina conditions. January wasn't really that different late month from 2014. It was actually much colder in the past two weeks if anything, which is why I tried not to moderate it too much. I'm not like the Ray guy who had the MIdwest +5 or whatever for January. I used 2014 because I thought it would be really fucking cold in January

The Canadian doesn't have a +WPO for February. My guess is its understating the cold again nationally. +WPO is low pressure NE Asia/NW Pacific to the north of high pressure SE/Asia/SW Pacific. We don't have that and have not had it. This is the +WPO, its opposite of the winter - Also, subsurface verified +0.47 for 100-180W 0-300m depth in January. That's not a La Nina, sorry. December was only -0.03, so the subsurface is almost certain to finish quite warm for DJF, which explains the active subtropical jet, lack of cold overall in the NW/Plains, lack of SE ridging, etc etc. January 2025 was -1.33 for the same subsurface reading for what its worth. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt

The Canadian misplaced the warmest area of the US for January and underestimated the cold nationally. Once today is in, January should end up about 2F warmer than what I had with my analogs from October for most of the US. Locally this month has felt like February. Some cold spells, some warmth, some snow. Its +4F for January, but nothing like the +10F for December.

Subsurface for Nino 3.4 is now nearly absent colder than normal waters. Most of the Eastern US is going to finish colder than average by month end, or no warmer than +1F. Cold has retrogressed hard to the West this month as I've been saying for a while.

This was a horribly forecast storm for me. Five days out we weren't supposed to see any rain or snow. Then heavy snow all night Friday to all night Saturday. Then rain Friday and snow Saturday. It ended up being rain very late Friday into Saturday, with snow starting just before 11:00 pm on Sat and lasting into Sunday morning. Still, it looks like the city got 1-3 inches of the snow. Our Oklahomies did pretty well too - With the snows included today, Albuquerque is nearing 1.20 inches of precipitation for January - near an average Dec-Feb for winter - but in 25 days. Dec-Feb is over 1.4" already, and long-term average is 1.3". Activity in the NE Pacific implies more storminess for the SW US later in February. January 2026 is currently the third wettest January in the last 100 years (1926-2025 basis), and 5th wettest January on record (since 1893). Wettest January since 2005. Also the top 25 wettest Nov-Jan locally since 1893 at ~1.95" (mean is ~1.3"). A lot of the eastern US is now on the verge of flipping to finishing January cold which is in line with my outlook from October. We'll see if we get there. Locally, this is easily the warmest winter on date so far (+5F warmer than the prior warmest Dec 1-Jan 24) - but snow is not really meaningfully below average with the extra moisture. We're at ~4" instead of ~4.5". Most of the ski-resorts have 1-3 foot bases now as well.

Warmest area of the country remains Plains/Northwest this month, with Montana running +10 in many spots. Locally we're down to +6F or so, but should drop closer to normal starting tommorow. Cold has reasserted itself over the East & Plains, and I still expect gradual retrogression to the West as we approach March. I thought January would be pretty cold in a lot of the East. No longer looks like a terrible call as cold continues to dump into the US. Notice any resemblance to the last week? Like I say, I'm annoyed it took a week longer than I expected, but hey we got there.

I wasn't trying to claim the NW has had some epic snow season - just that the bottom part of the smiley outline will fill in now. The circled area. It's been far too warm in the Northwest for meaningful heavy snow anomalies. Even within that context though, you can still see the general shape of what I outlined held up, despite the warmth. This southern portion of the storm track pattern will shift north somewhat in Feb-Apr and some of the West will do better in that time frame. I'd imagine CO will catch up a bit then.