HurricaneTracker

6 minutes ago, Kaner88 said:

Back in Chicago for the holidays, looking forward to the landcane

Same here. My parents live in Aurora and my in-laws live in Princeton, IL in central Bureau County. I am visiting them starting Tuesday. Supposed to be in Aurora early Saturday morning. I may be stuck…somewhere in N IL this week…

53 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Yeah we are far from over. This winter has been awful though but as some have mentioned this spring is probably going to be delayed. 

Delayed spring seems to be the new normal.  This is the 3rd consecutive February with way above average temperatures and flowering trees/bulbs/etc.  Only to be followed by a deadly freeze in March and April.  And now the mountains look like they will get 4-7" of RAIN in the next 10 days or so.  Incredible.

8 hours ago, ncjoaquin said:

That is crazy. It is absolutely pouring the snow here in West Asheville. My wife asked me to come get her downtown. Weather is weird.

I can count on one hand the number of snowflakes I had at home today. Just a real underperforming event in the western part of the county.

Rain in Candler as well. Temps holding at 37F.

On 1/17/2019 at 11:22 PM, SnoJoe said:

Got over an inch here as well. But I want a snow. A real one. 

Keep waiting. I don’t see any major snow events on the horizon for at least the next 10 days. 

0.62” liquid equivalent. Little to no ice in southwest Buncombe. Forecast went pretty much like I expected. NAM and RGEM were indeed too aggressive.  Glad impacts to most folks are minimal!

Sitting at 32.6° with a dew point of 31° here about 10 miles southwest of Asheville. Temperatures have been rising since 6pm. All rain here.

My automated rain gauge continues to measure  the precipitation. This tells me it continues to be all rain here in southwest Buncombe. 32.3°, dew point 31. No more room left for evaporative cooling.  Rain gauge at 0.08” and counting. Minimal to no ZR. 

2 minutes ago, BretWheatley said:

ZR has begun here. 

34/28 here in southwest Buncombe. All rain. 

46 minutes ago, Lookout said:

I think this is the first time  i have ever heard or seen someone argue for the gfs in a cad event. If you are in zone of cad real estate in north carolina,  you are making a terrible mistake hanging your hat on the gfs. 

At any rate, the nam is also too warm...in some cases by 5 to 7 degrees with dewpoints. For example, the nam..including the 3km, has dewpoints of around 28/29 in the upstate..when in reality they are in the 20 to 22 range. Looks like it's off by around 5 degrees in north carolina.

On average, when there is actually some respectable dewpoint depressions and evaporation to be had...which the event in december did not have at all, , the average error rate is  1 to 3 degrees too warm after saturation...with the old gfs being upwards of 3 to 5 degrees.,especially on the edges. 

Terrible mistake?  Hmm. I call it forecaster intuition. To be fair, GFS still shows ice accretions along and north of AVL.  I think this is far more realistic than the NAM which has ice accumulations over 0.75" across a broad swath of the central and northern foothills/mountains. Yes dewpoints are dry and yes there will be wetbulbing.  But NAM and RGEM are notorious at overdoing ice accumulations.  GFS is still a respectable event.  Somebody is going to get a cold rain inside the warning area.

To that end, even the latest HRRR is more GFS-like than the overly icy NAM.  Just saying my experience in CAD ice storm events specifically is that NAM overcools the surface (but does capture warm nose aloft), while GFS is more realistic at the surface but can underdo the warm nose.  

1 minute ago, wncsnow said:

12Z NAM says otherwise. Most ice it has shown all storm long. 

I know...I looked at it.  But my feel is that the NAM is wrong.  It’s far too cold.  Look at initialization 2m temps this morning versus observed. It was too cold by 2-3 degrees most places. Every CAD event we have had here since November (along with RGEM) has been too cold and showing nasty ice storms when they have yet to verify.  I think this event is no different. Go with the GFS if you want a solution that’s closer to reality.

11 minutes ago, BretWheatley said:

Newest 3k NAM looks nasty as hell. Let’s hope it’s too cold. Sitting at 33/20 now. 

It is too cold.  Was off by 3-4 degrees too cold on min temps this morning.

The low is also tracking 75-100 miles further north across the Midwest, giving Chicago 2-4" of snow (when their forecast was zero just last night).  This means we here will see a more robust warm nose.  Score one for the GFS - mostly non-event here in the mountains.

3 minutes ago, jjwxman said:

The morning 6z NAM products and 12z HRRR is making this more of an I-40 and north event. The 12z HRRR will make most jump ship if you are south of I-40.

 

The latest HRRR is consistent with 12Z NAM.  It’s a DC special.  A non-event for just about everyone in North Carolina, except the highest mountains and elevated valleys.  System has jumped north a good 75-100 miles.  Last nights runs had no snow for Chicago...now models give them 2-4" today.  This brings warm nose more robustly across NC, leaving most of us with just a brief onset of wintry precip before changing to a cold rain.

44 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

The NAM actually has a dry bias now since the “upgrade”. RGEM and CMC are showing heavier amounts and now GFS and Euro appear to be playing catch-up. If temps hold, its lights out in WNC, northern upstate of SC, and Ne GA. 

Temps wise, we’ve had a lot of wedge events this season since November. Each time the NAM and RGEM have been the cold outliers that didn’t verify. GFS has actually done well even though it’s QPF has been low all season too. So, I would take NAM QPF with GFS thermal profiles. This event turns into a Winter Wx Advisory for many in the mountains as it would be brief snow/sleet/ZR before changing to a cold rain. Gotta get further north into the deeper cold air like around DC to get good snows. 

13 minutes ago, BretWheatley said:

Newest 3 & 12k NAM a little concerning. Doesn’t show a changeover for most.. from freezing rain. 

Still gotta think it is overdone. Has not yet nailed a ZR event here this season even though it has forecast many. 

26 minutes ago, BretWheatley said:

Yeah, no thanks!

I wouldn’t worry too much about this for the mountain zones.  The wedge is not going to hold on too long - parent high is too far north and west of its ideal CAD position.  Warm nose should work it’s magic.  Suspect mountains see mostly rain event and GFS is really hinting at this.  Far northern mountains and northern foothills locations will be closer to the cold and more susceptible to wintry precipitation.  But for Asheville, Franklin, and escarpment areas, I don’t see this ice accumulation map coming to fruition. At least for now.

Before we get to the cold that is advertised in January, we have to make it through the next very wet system this week.  It isn't being discussed too widely here, but GFS-FV3 and to some extent the NAM/Euro, are throwing out QPF values in excess of 4", with escarpment areas 5"+ by 12Z Monday, 12-31-18.  Some GFS members are over 8" of rain in these areas!  What is super spooky to me is that GFS has been the driest model for the wnc area all fall/winter long.

Unfortunately for snow lovers, this will be an all rain event as temperatures are just too warm for any frozen precip.  More importantly, flooding concerns will go up dramatically on Friday, and last through the weekend as the GFS and Euro bring another low system along the trailing cold front.

With exceptionally wet antecedent conditions, we need to be ready for rapid rises in area rivers/streams/creeks, and the potential for landslides/mudslides.

Hi All.  Just a quick update.  We are 60 hours now without power or internet.  Tree damage is extensive.  What a storm!

The sound of breaking limbs and popping trees is intense. Keeping me from sleeping. 

Just lost power. We are on Haywood EMC. They are over 3,300 outages already and the heavy snows have just started. 

1 minute ago, wncsnow said:

Rain in marion still and fog.. not good. Per dad.

Wedge is slow to develop at the surface. Won’t happen until after 11pm.

19 minutes ago, Cornsnow said:

That's not good right? If it's in Asheville it does not bode well for other areas, correct?

Don’t look at the 00Z NAM then.  Wicked warm nose at 700mb  crosses the entire state from west to east. Dang.

Just now, ncjoaquin said:

I shall hold out hope that is wrong and just enjoy the beating we are taking now. At this rate, we may get 5.2 easy.

Indeed!  Just don’t want to add IP/ZR on top of this heavy concrete.

Oh and the 00Z NAM is U.G.L.Y. Just wastes liquid on sleet and freezing rain. Oh my.  Just  5.2" of snow.  Warm nose at 700mb goes all the way to Bristol, TN!

Just now, BlueRidgeFolklore said:

Absolutely ripping here.

Think we can stave off that warm nose?

Totally unsure.  HRRR looks exceptionally promising.

21Z SREF plumes and what I think the 00Z NAM will show...is a sleet and freezing rain mess. Warm nosed big time.