CTWeatherFreak

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

I wonder if you can forecast negative snow...since we measure snow that reaches the ground (a positive value) what about snow that evaporates before reaching the ground...or gets caught in the updrafts?..it's not falling to the ground...it's rising farther from the ground. 

Yes.. seems too me more than once weve  had 6" of virga.

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Hrrr was Terrible. Usually that model kind of latches onto trends, but not this time.

Did for my area.

From the Valley Girls:

********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

LOCATION          STORM TOTAL     TIME/DATE   COMMENTS
                     SNOWFALL           OF
                     /INCHES/   MEASUREMENT

CONNECTICUT

...Hartford County...
   2 WNW North Granby    18.0   645 AM 12/03  Trained Spotter
   North Granby          16.3   715 AM 12/03  Trained Spotter
   Bradley AP            16.3   650 AM 12/03  Airport
   West Granby           15.3   941 AM 12/03  Public
   Canton                14.0   810 AM 12/03  Trained Spotter
   Simsbury              14.0   529 AM 12/03  Ham Radio
   Avon                  12.2   753 AM 12/03  Trained Spotter
   West Hartford         12.0   713 AM 12/03  Public

57 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yup ... and NWS made that very clear in their discussion prior to the event, that they were taking that philosophy/tact with this thing... 

Having said that... I don't know about the wisdom in/and public perception of having done so personally - not that you or anyone asked.  PR and idiocracy factors don't really align with their level of precision and adherence to time-spans like that.  Silly really -  

No ...the average person doesn't judicially judge these sort of things anywhere close to those internal aspects, ...and actually, the vast majority don't read their tech/reasoning discussions either.  They may not like hearing this, BUT, they need to consider how these advisories and warnings are consumed. More so at that end - but that's just imho.   NWS does not exist for their own precision - they exist paid for by the public  

To be fair, those time requirements work much of the time. However, this is/was an unusual circumstance that requires(d) a mutation of those requirements - this was a warning by totality of event scenario, sorry. More so than the other line of reasoning and though it is just my opinion, the PR angle should have been considered like the former.  Civility isn't ready nor responsible enough for their precision.  Maybe some day...  

Nevertheless, a lot of towns in Hartford and Tolland counties under WWA picked up over 6" in the 12 hr overnight period.

56 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

6.75 today 9 total. Still snowing. BDL with 16.3

Whoa. I thought they reported 13.5.  Guess they werent done.. Wow.

WWAs just extended to noon for Hartford and Tolland counties in Ct...  Looks like were still not done as spokes rotate around.

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah honestly I don't actually pay much attention to those hyper ala carte model types ... For all conceits and purposes of tech and excruciating computing power, they seem to throw almost as many variances, where just using the global models and smoothing them in mind's eye toward common sense works just as well.  

But, part of the "don't really use the HRRR" means lack of exposure to that guidance sourcing; so objective fairness requires that I don't actually impugn the model -  I'm just saying as such from what I gather from what people post about it. Good and bad... and I'm lazy? ...so I rely on the smoothing above.  

That said, Will mentioned the HRRR snowing through mid afternoon and that seems to be matching well - that's all I know ...haha 

It also nailed the north/central CT enhancement  last night better than most.

9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

At the end bro. Relax we are still snowing.  Peeps will update.  

You still accumulating?  East kids win again...

4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Dylan , check in here to wkevin.com

Paucity of data there at the moment.

19 minutes ago, snowman21 said:

I don't think they blew it. They just didn't think widespread 6+ (did anyone?), and by the time they realized what was happening it was too late. It could have gone the other way too, and they would get criticized for it. It's easy to be the Monday morning quarterback.

Cmon dude.. Dont you recall seeing days and days of model prognostications showing most of CT outside of Fairfield county with near nada?  Those maps will be permanently etched in my memory. And those areas that were portrayed as such, especially central ct counties, received 8-12 more than was being portrayed..   Thats a big bust for this area.  

17 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

well we did slot for a long time, its just that bad that the NAM/EC and other models had really paid off and wasn't just some transient 1-3 type deal.

I dont think any of them had the foot that many in the county received... And BOX blew it by not issuing a WSW for the area as well..  Positive busts, while somewhat rare, are definitely preferable to negative ones.

HRRR nailed  that band through North Central Ct. .. Nice positive bust here for the globals after portraying days of CT dryslot of death.

20 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Looks like they were too far n and nw with the front. HFD might do ok today...at least from a mood snow standpoint.

Loving these snowglobe mood flakes this morning

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Radar is back building nicely with convection like elements to it. 

It's very showery at the moment; temperature just hit 32.. Waiting for the steady stuff later hopefully

Going by the models, looks like NYC is going to outscore Hartford... Oh, the indignity.

15 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Snow/sleet starting to pound.

flipped from freezing drizzle to light snow about a half hour ago, rapidly becoming moderate but seems showery in nature, backed up  by radar..  30 degrees, 29 dp

Pingers mixed with freezing rain ... 26 degrees. About 1" down

BOX  surprisingly stayed with the WWA with the latest 4pm  update for Boston.

11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

To top off the mans birthday.  His team playing in the snow. Dream day dude

Flipped to sneet now.

Just now, ineedsnow said:

Just started snowing!!!! Let the fun begin!!!

Yep. just saw first flakes!!

Anybody want to see round  1 overperforming and headed this way, turn on the Giants game.. Pounding and Sticking.

WOW... BOX will have some 'splainin' to do  if they dont bring 'em up this afternoon.

22 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

When CT peeps talk about CT getting skipped over on the RGEM its like the state ends at the Manchester HVN line. I mean this is skipping? 6 hr totals and still pounding 

 

Anything east of Hartford might as well be Rhode Island.

58 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Lol, can't catch a break. 

New Jersey stealing our snow.