StormyClearweather

4 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

We spent weeks and weeks posting tons of maps and analysis about a late Feb “epic” pattern that was totally fictional. Not only was it fictional; but we are literally in the 50’s and 60’s with rain into Canada. I’m just not seeing any science behind any of this. I am also not seeing much “ Mea culpa” and pause being given into how wrong it at was and learning from it to forecast better in the future. That frustrates me how Mets are just so wrong and move on like they didn’t make major mistakes.. 

Are you seriously asking for people to take fault for failing to accurately predict the future weeks in advance, despite using the best science and guidance available at the time, all because you wanted more snow than you've gotten? Get over it. 

If you need that kind of accuracy, you need to stay away from this thread and stick to listening to the nice man on the news for your weather forecasts. With long-range forecasting comes great uncertainty. If you can't handle it, move on. 

https://x.com/nwsstlouis/status/1758627226227277925?s=46
 

There’s still hope?

I know its value is limited at this range, but since I like what it shows, I'm sharing it anyway. 

ICON. Noise changes mostly but a little improved from 6Z, I think.

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

SOLD

3K is pretty similar, too. 

Ignore those other silly models. Everyone knows the HRW WRF-ARWHGLTLSGBRBZ is the bee's knees. 

Not sure if this was posted or not. Looks good to me! 

3 minutes ago, blizzardmeiser said:

These #s are way too high. 

Of course they are. Hopefully, people here are smart enough to not take these maps literally or as a forecast. But they still lend credibility to a trend toward snowier for many. 

Ahem 

Was still living in Greenville, SC for the last one, lucky enough to be right in the middle of the path of totality. It was one of the most amazing experiences I've ever personally had. Even my husband, who is not easily impressed, was stunned silent. Nothing can beat watching it from your backyard, but it's definitely worth a trip to see it at least once!

I don't mind this. Even if it winds up being snow TV. 

Moving up here from SC in 2021, between Tuesday's storm and today's storm, this is the most snow I've seen on the ground... ever. Don't take it for granted! Most of the SE Forum would kill for this.

Ya love to see it! Posted by NWS LWX about 10 minutes ago.

4 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

More backbuilding from WV! Would be nice to get heavier rates though 

Have you measured lately? You're close enough to me that I find it easier to use yours than walk outside and do it myself.  

Just now, Ji said:

Stop looking at the gfs…the snow starts in 9 minutes

CMC is a similar 2-4. 

Just now, understudyhero said:

OPM went 2hr delay/liberal leave.

But what about conservatives?

GFS Snow Map (see? this wasn't a wasted post)

Just now, jayyy said:

Is it really real if you don’t post the resulting clown maps?

It's aight. 

Models don't appear to be picking up the "precip" streaming overhead, while it looks like HRRR takes a couple of hours after precip starts for it to start hitting the ground. Maybe, just maybe, the stuff falling now helps moisten the column, reducing virga when the real stuff gets here? 

Latest from LWX: 

PRECIP ALOFT HAS BEEN NOTED ON REGIONAL 88DS AND GPM MICROWAVE  
IMAGER OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST  
MARYLAND, BUT NO SFC OBS HAVE SHOWN ANYTHING REACHING THE   
GROUND AS LOW-LEVEL DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 20C  
PER 19/00Z IAD SOUNDING. NEW SET OF 18Z GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW   
ANY APPRECIABLE CHANGES TO SPEAK OF ABOUT FRIDAY'S FORECAST.  
  
STRONG SHORTWAVE-TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX WILL PASS  
THROUGH THE AREA AROUND MIDDAY FRI SUPPORTING STRONG LIFT TO  
GENERATE SNOW. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM WILL LACK DEEP MOISTURE TO  
MAKE THIS A MAJOR STORM IN ADDITION TO BEING FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE.  
BLENDED TPW PRODUCT SHOWS PWAT VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.4  
INCHES WITH NO SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF HIGHER MOISTURE LIKELY TO   
ADVECT IN. FOR BIGGER STORMS, TYPICALLY 0.5 INCH PWAT VALUES AND  
HIGHER ARE NEEDED UNLESS IS A SUPER COLD AIR MASS. ALL OF THESE  
FACTORS, IN ADDITION, LACK OF A CLOSED 850-700 MB CIRCULATION,   
SUGGEST WARNING LEVEL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SEEM UNLIKELY. OVERALL,  
THE FORECAST AND SNOW AMOUNTS SEEM ON TRACK AND WILL REMAIN   
UNCHANGED TONIGHT. FCST SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN   
AREAS LIKE FREDERICKSBURG VA MAY BE SOMEWHAT OVERDONE DUE TO   
LACK OF MID-LEVEL SATURATION WHICH MAY INHIBIT SNOWFALL RATES.   
IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE   
MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL OCCUR ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR   
WITH UP TO A FOOT POSSIBLE ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN REGION.   
HEAVIEST ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED IN THE 13Z-19Z FRI TIME FRAME. 

Me likey.

3k has precip breaking out in the northern zones at 6Z and encroaching DC by 8Z.