CNY-LES FREAK

Nov is a good month for correlations. Some say, what happens in November, the Winter will remember, or something along those lines, lol., Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

KBUF: A secondary cold front will usher in colder temperatures Wednesday morning. Lake induced instability will increase as 850mb temperatures fall back near -5 deg C and lake effect rain showers are likely with enhancement southeast of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. At this time, the mid-level trough will promote a connection from upstream lakes. Lake effect showers will persist into Wednesday night with an enhancement southeast of Lake Ontario. A cool night is expected with surface temperatures falling into the low to mid 30s and even the 20s at higher elevations. Rain may start to mix in and possibly even change over to snow at some locations. I think this has the possibility to drop our first trace/2" in areas of highest elevations in CNY. S. Onondaga, Madison, Cortland and Otsego has the best chances of seeing snow in the Wednesday-Thursday time frame as they have the highest bumps but it'll be a close call in the lower elevations for sure. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

Had it been a few degrees colder, this bout would of been, of the frozen variety, cause its down right chilly our there. Can't believe on Wednesday it was in the mid 80's, lol! Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

Looks like the Subtropical Jet will also be a player this yr with quite a few Miller A's and b's. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

Its gonna be a doozey, starting real early as well and shes gonna run wire to wire, I feel it, lol! A stellar season for winter weather enthusiasts is on its way, so all you snowmobile lovers and snowboarders and skiers get ready for a season to remember. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

The Tug Hill region is getting hit pretty hard with +RN with embedded Thunder at times. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

Yeah we all know what the GFS shows 8 days out, but somehow between now and about day 4, it'll flip flop, especially considering the volatility that already exists within the models due to the natural change of seasons so I wouldnt buy into and one run or 3 for that matter, unless the GFS has been performing above average which is usually never the case, unfortunately. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

Today was the last 80 degree we'll see until next May-June some time, hopefully, and thank the good Lord above because enough is enough now with this disgusting warmth that just doesnt't wanna let go. Its grip remains in tact.across the area. At least for the next 12-+18hrs or so, lol. Then some abrupt changes will occur after Michael passes through to our immediate S&E and displaces the SE Ridge in an abrupt manner as we go from 70-80's to 40-50's with lows in the upper 20's lower 30's so to me, that's an abrupt change, and it just gets better from there. Latest 12z GFS, after Michael passes through, brings in trough after trough after trough along with an apparent PNA Ridge. Don't really know how long something like that will last but if we want any kind of sustained cold and snow with excessive lake effect snow events, or potential events at least, some kind of favorable telleconnection combo needs to be present. If the ATL cooperates with the PAC then we're golden but if it goes the other way then all bets are off, but I dont see any indication of that right now. Cold pools in both oceans are in favorablepositions as well as our ENSO position with lots of ConvectionEStbof the DL already. Cold.water off the Baja helps the cause as well so I think we look real good for at least an early blast from good ol man Winter and Iant wait. I have the AC running on Oct 10 here in Syracuse NY, go figure, with yelps approaching the mid 80's almost eclipsing the old record. Close but no cigar. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

Pressure down to 919 now and it looks like the Western eyeball looks stronger than the eastern side with cloud tops approaching hing uncharted territory, lol. Just an incredible storm system and a testament that the end of this world, IMO, will be of the Natural variety! Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

Michael is going to completely obliterate that disgusting monster of a Bermuda High that's been ever present it seems like. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

A rain wrapped tornado has to probably be the worst event to ever get caught in, No? I mean, you can't see the funnel of the storm and then the wind increases exponentially as the storm, within a storm, nears ones locatin. This is History we are witnessing as far as weather is concerned and I believe it's just the beginning of a very interesting Winter season. If this Winter is as extreme as this past Summer, then we are in for some season. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

Pressure is now down to 923, WOW!!! Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

I think there's an extremely good shot at seeing an early season event whether it be of the synoptic variety or a LES event. I'm absolutely loving the 3arly look of the season. This could be a wire to wire season. The brown stripe down the back of the woolley bear caterpillar is extremely thick this year, indicative of an extremely cold and snowy winter season, RLMAO!!! Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

02-03' I don't think is that far off as well. My all time favorite Winter and I've been through some good ones but nothing like that one, at least up here, North of the Syracuse area. A constant barrage of synoptic systems with LES events in between systems. A dream of a pattern that lasted close to 6 weeks straight. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

I feel real sorry for people along the northern coast of Florida along the Panhandle. Apalachicola is getting pummeled right now. Wherever that eastern eyeball passes over there's going to be catastrophic damage and I seriously think the back areas of the Gulf are going to be rearranged forever. It should hit as a Cat 4 but the latest adv has the pressure down to 929 which is the lowest recorded pressure ever within a Tropical System. It could reach a low Cat 5 with ease as well with waters off the immediate coast up near the upper 80's. I hope ppl took heed to the warnings and evacuations that were issued because if they stayed, forget about it. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

This will be one of the coldest and snowiest winter seasons in a long time. A definite memorable one is on tap, for sure. To much in our favor for it to go the other way. I hope I dont eat crow in March but I've eatennitmany times already, lol! Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

I'm optimistic of a blockbuster winter season, with plenty of snow and brutally cold air. There will be, for the immediate CNY area, an over abundance of WNW -NW flow events. The Tug, either way see their average to above average snowfall pretty much every season so it seems.. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

I think the chances are quite good actually! Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

Good, as I'd rather warm weather during October rather than a cold Oct, then a cold half of November then a thaw till after the Holiday back to cold. The Rubber band has got to snap, eventually, and I cant wait for it to do so, lol! Model guidance during transition periods, like the change of seasons, especially Summer to Fall, has an effect on guidance at verification time, so I think the push of colder, more dense air, can perhaps bully it's way further to the E/SE by 50-100 miles, lol. Remember, I'm being Super optimistic here, lol! Man what a stretch of Warn AN temps throughout the North East, WOW! Like Buffalo said, 5-7 straight months of AN weather is just sick, really, so let's hope it goes the other way, for 5-7 months, but add snow for at least 4 of those months. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

Its looking like a good bet for precip both periods with the latter being the more pronounced rain event of the 2. The first period can change in your favor as there is still time for changes but a battle zone is going to be setting up the next 2 weeks and who knows where that boundary will lie. I do know one thing, that cold shot the GFS has been advertising and another poster just mentioned, would no doubt bring our firat flakes of the season throughout all of NY but a better shot would be in the belts to the ESE of LO and the same for Erie. It would however be a 24hr shot, at best, and can just as much, be flatout wrong, which we've seen time and time again with the GFS in the mid range guidance. I wouldn't be surprised if it flips entirely the other way as its bound to lose it somewhere, lol. Good'ol GFS!! I'm just loving the look of the upper air flow which is already quite blocks looking in both the ATL and the PAC which is key. When both oceans work in tandem is when we experience some of our best Winters and it's looking that way real early in the game it looks like. My fear is getting a huge outbreak in October and Novembernonly to be replaced, just in time for the holidays, by a warmer period, relatively speaking, but nonetheless, I've seen it happen way too many times and I dont wanna see it happen this ur but this ur is different. Everything is in our favor, at least early on it looks like, but that can and will probably change. One can only hope that Wibter hits and sticks but those Winters are few and far between. After I made that last post about loving the winter of 14-15 I watched a movie, Captive with Ryan Reynolds and it just showed how bad that Winter was. In WNY, where the movie was shot, showed scenes throughout Niagara County completely blitzed with snow and it seemed as though whenever they shot their scenes, it was pounding snow, lol, and it was COLD and you could also tell it was LES, lol, well at least us weird snow lovers could. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

Top analogs JB is using this yr are 2 of my all time favorite winters. 02-03,14-15 with 02-03 by far, being my favorite, with Winter hitting in Nov and sticking till March and then boom, Spring! It snowed 31 days straight in Syracuse. Trust me, I've looked it up several times, lol. When I say snowed, I mean a trace or better through the month and that's exactly what happened for the whole month of January. I remember cause I had just moved to the area, my parents visited and they said never again, lol. They said I'd have to visit them in the Winter, if I wanted to see them, lol! There was a WNW-NW flow for 40 days ststraight it seemed like with a spray of flurries and embedded squalls effecting the area for an extended period of time and it was Great! Everything was completely snow/ice covered and when I say everything, I mean everything. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

Let it stay warm till November this way It can hit and stick, lol. I'm loving our ENSO situation. Weak Nino, so lovely for our region for notj sustained cold and quite snowy to boot! Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

Theres a line building in WNY that may garner enough energy before passing through to generate some strong to perhaps severe storms this evening around these parts. For the most part, things have been quiet today but that may change, especially if the Sun comes out, which will only add gas. I think the GFS is once again, jumping the gun on such an abrupt change in our pattern but I could be wrong. Havent even looked at the EURO as I usually dont start to really pay attention till early Oct, bjtvI still think it's a bit too soon. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

Sounds like you picked a prime spot for some intense rates Wolf, good for you bro and enjoy. Perhaps a meet and greet is in order this yr up there somewhere, during an event! November events up there are intense as LO sometimes reaches its boiling pt, lol! Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

GFS does have some heavy rain reaching as dar North as Oswego but nothing substantial then a sweeping CF to usher a much needed cool down. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk