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drstuess

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Posts posted by drstuess

    Monitoring first regional significant winter impact event. Magnitude likely tempered. At this time NE PA/SE NY and SNE primarily. Jan 7/8.

    in New England

    Posted

    Well .. not trying to be a wise ass buuut, nothing's "locked" in a 72 hours in a 'needle thread' pattern.
    subtle movements in the last 18 hours can move a rain snow line N or S by 40 mi, can short term bust a forecast.
    That said, the air mass on the front side of this thing is cold.  The DPs even out over the low GOM waters are I think that fights back as we get into the 36 hour window and we start seeing models collapse to a chillier boundary layer. 
    I think the correction vector on the thermal is on the cold side for this one, but out of deference to the model... the short answer to your question has to be no - not locked in.
    Thank you, i really appreciate it. I dont want to put words in your mouth, but applying your comments to the probabilistic maps, you think the NWS 10% high end maps showing
    And sorry I used "locked in" a bit loosely, I just wanted to understand the likelihood.

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    Sunday, December 17 - Monday, December 18, 2023 Storm

    in New England

    Posted

    Have you seen any storm surge numbers for yesterday . I figured some south facing coasts saw a decent rise east of center .
    Pvd hit ~9 ft, or about 5 feet above the predicted high tide. 1938 was 12.67 feet above sea level. Overall looks like maybe #3 overall, and somewhere between once a decade and once a century?

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    • Thanks 1

    Octorcher or Roctober 2023 Discussion Thread

    in New England

    Posted

    Looks pretty questionable the past few years...but might not be enough for them to flag it like ORH....if it stays within 2F of their calibration tools, they don't change it....an unnerving fact we all found out last year when discussing KORH.
     
    MADIS_KHVN.png.61200a1ded39bc71460cdcf12803522f.png
    Out of curiosity, does this mean it is too high or too low? OP was saying he thought it was too high, but I would interpet negative errors as too low?

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    Global Average Temperature 2023

    in Climate Change

    Posted

    So, if you were to hand-draw a CONUS surface temperature chart with isotherms, you're telling me that the temperature would go *up* the more stations I have? News to me.
    I was being sarcastic regarding post, hence the "average=sum". Adding /s si you don't lump me in with the poster I was quoting.

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    Global Average Temperature 2023

    in Climate Change

    Posted

    How exactly does a denser number of reporting stations make it warmer? 
    It's odd that any Joe would "comprehend" more reporting stations as causing higher readings, when that statement does zero refutation to the idea that more reporting stations could also make colder - if/when and fairly going by that same [faux] logic.
    No, they just take the cumulative value across the stations. Everyone knows average = sum. /s

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    2023 - tracking the tropics

    in New England

    Posted

    This will be a major beach erosion beast. Huge circulation with a very large fetch as its passing by. Most likely the largest swell for the north east since bill 08. I’m thinking ahead of some protected breaks inside inlets that break once a decade. Because the paddle may be damn near impossible. 
    An aside. But I find the protected areas are better/bigger in RI during big winter storms and lower period. The big period makes it feel the bottom and refract and draws all the energy to the points. Very spot dependant and if big enough, the novelties will still break, but big offshore swells don't always translate.

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    Hurricane Franklin

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    Franklin had that text book look right now. Despite its smallish size, it will produce the largest, most dangerous August swell for the east coast since Bill 08. Beach erosion, wash overs and deadly rip currents likely up and down the east coast. 
    Yeah, Bill had 80 mile hurricane wind radius, Franklin is currently only 20-30 miles? Wind field will expand, but will be interesting to see.

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