WxMatt21

Currently 36 at FWA. Areas south and west/east of here all in the mid 30s. Expect some cooling as the heavy precip moves in, but it has been way warmer than modeled. 

14 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

A headwind?  Wouldn’t you have a tail wind heading east/NE?  Jet stream flows west to east overall, no? 

I was referring to surface wind/being able to take off  

Just now, Childude645 said:

Hrmmm that’s a bit close but you’ll be heading up and away from the storm…. Unsure really. any updates from airline?


.

No updates! Says on time, so I guess we'll see. I feel like the thing I have going for me is a strong headwind. At least no t-storms will be in the vicinity! Crossing fingers...

I have a flight leaving BOS and headed NE to Edinburgh at 9 pm tomorrow  Winds don't seem too out of control at that point, but I'm admittedly not as familiar with the sustained/gust threshold for commercial airlines and what qualifies for a delay or cancellation...

11 minutes ago, WestMichigan said:

You cut off the date, when is that? ^

Sunday the 25th at 12z. Of course, model consistency is severely lacking, so take that, as well as anything else, with a huge grain of salt.

4 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said:

Good lord some TV Mets are dumb  

According to Chief Met Tom Coomes (ABC57 in South Bend), this is just for Wednesday. He didn't feel comfortable adding in Thursday's totals yet.

Interesting blog post from Judah Cohen about the late spring and early summer pattern

FWA and surrounding areas quite a bit colder than modeled thanks to clearing. Think HRRR has the right idea. 0Z NAM has FWA getting into the upper 30s Thursday afternoon, but it also had us at 24 by midnight. We're 16 right now.

00z HRRR has us getting to 33/34, it had us modeled at 19 by midnight. This colder solution will obviously translate to a better shot at getting more snow than rain. Still expecting about 1-2" here, though wonder if we could see an overachiever. 

4 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said:

IWX holding serve with the watch but did expand it northward to include the entire CWA. They're wording shows they're going with 4-7 in Michigan counties, 4-8 everywhere else. 

Thought that was odd...interested in their reasoning. Seems there's more than enough support for a warning almost 24 hours out.

9 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

Have to say have worries on this one as well for snow totals. Clear issues for Northern OH/IN with warmth at the surface & all that moisture flow starts slowly bleeding out into that coastal storm. Much more confidence in the storm off the coast than this one for the weekend living up to expectations

Not to mention some of the op solutions I've seen (looking at you, NAM) are just outright laughable for NE IN...like, way beyond climatology and approaching, or in some cases shattering, all-time snow records. 

Never say never, I suppose, but ensembles showing a swath of 5-7" is far more realistic for this area than anything over 10". I don't regret not issuing a snow map today. But hey, if this thing ends up overachieving, I'm here for it all the same!

Just now, michsnowfreak said:

 I do remember the ice failing, I thought you were just talking about snow. As for December 2nd are you thinking of the storm that went to Eastern Ohio and hit the Eastern part of the sub? Or something different?  That pounded Cleveland with almost 10" and was actually my biggest snow of the season so far with 4.3" on the Western edge.  Of course model placement always sucks more than a few days out lol. Hopefully this one delivers.

Oh, I was just commenting about northern Indiana, particularly NE where we don't get much lake action. Both ice and snow have been exaggerated in recent memory on the euro, but clearly that's not the case everywhere! 

17 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

 Please refresh my memory lol because I do not remember any big storms 2 days out that fizzled.  Last Winter I do remember that the November 11th snowstorm over performed, the January 18th thump performed as expected and I do not remember what was forecast for the February 26th snow although looks like that was your last legit big dog mirage. 

Well, the most recent one was the ice event on New Year's Day. Euro consistently had 0.50"+ of ice accretion not only days ahead of the event, but on the day itself! 

Then the December 2nd event where the Euro painted a stripe of 7"+ for Northern Indiana about a day or two leading up to the event. We ended with about an inch. 

1 hour ago, weathafella said:

I just don’t see the euro having been pretty consistent with only minor shifts for 2 days being wrong here.  I’ve been through this nonsense with the GFS in every major system over the past 15 years it seems.

I can name at least three systems just this winter that were pegged as big dogs on the Euro (even a day or two out!) for NE Indiana  only to fizzle into sloppy, wet, utterly forgettable snow showers.

Of course, I live in Fort Wayne, IN, a place where storms come to die a swift and painless death.

2 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

That article is the fakest shit I've ever seen. It sounds like it was written by a third grader who just watched a Magic School Bus episode on the cardiovascular system.

Unfortunately, these people are beyond convincing. I have a few family members who just simply don't care, regardless of the statistics or personal anecdotes you share with them. This pandemic has brought out the worst (and occasionally best) in people.

1 hour ago, IWXwx said:

I'm sorry to hear that. Condolences to you and your family.

I have been kind of harsh at times here, but when you've lost friends and seen multiple people suffer for days and weeks, it gets kind of personal...more than just hospital and death stats.

What I can't stand is when people say, "Well it's only the elderly who get seriously ill or die..." or "It's only those with preexisting conditions who need to worry..."

First of all, that's just obviously false.

Most importantly, though, it's outrageously callous.

9 minutes ago, Snownado said:

Talk about a screw job for Fort Wayne. 

 

Eh, when you've lived here long enough you come to expect it haha! 4"-6" snow events happen maybe a couple times a winter. Maybe! 6"+ happen every few years if we're lucky. 

I still think that map is overdone for Fort Wayne, and especially NW Ohio. 

Also, callous remarks like "it's just a few kids" or "it's just obese old people" are just gross. The indifference toward human life is appalling.

1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I sort of agree with Jonger. We should not live in fear. Personally I've had 5 friends die in the last 2 years from absolutely random causes under the age of 50. Driving is one of the most dangerous aspects of life. Should we all stay at home and not drive anymore? It's really not needed anymore. We can all work from home, teach from home, order from home. Why don't we all stay home to reduce possible deaths? We could reduce more deaths from reducing the fatality in traffic accidents then we could with Covid.

• Heart disease: 647,457
• Cancer: 599,108
• Accidents (unintentional injuries): 169,936
• Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 160,201
• Stroke (cerebrovascular diseases): 146,383
• Alzheimer’s disease: 121,404
• Diabetes: 83,564
• Influenza and pneumonia: 55,672
• Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome, and nephrosis: 50,633
• Intentional self-harm (suicide): 47,173

This is per year, right? In just a few months this virus has already taken more of a human toll than most of what you listed above does in a single YEAR.

 This is not "just the flu" or "just like any other dangerous thing". It is clearly more than that.

12 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Yeah I was surprised about the new day 2.  I thought Jewell was one of the better forecasters, but who knows.  

As someone who works in the media, I actually appreciate a conservative approach, especially when storm threats around here are so conditional. Forecasters who don't jump the gun too early, but communicate uncertainty and discuss all possibilities are the usually the better meteorologists overall. Hype/worst case scenarios for EVERY thunderstorm threat is unnecessary and exhausting. 

It's a lot better to ramp up as the situation becomes clearer than to go in guns a blazin', only to walk it back with a bruised reputation.

I also concede being too conservative can also be bad. It's a fine line

31 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Several damage reports down that way as well, so seems valid.

Some damage reports, but all rather mild or what you might expect with low end severe. Nothing that seems to suggest nearly 80 mph wind. Just seems very localized. 

Not saying it's impossible, since it was obviously recorded, but it seems to be a huge outlier 

42 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

FWA G78MPH with that line of weak convection moving through.

That report puzzles me. Viewer a mile north reported just some gusty wind. I live 15 MI NE of the airport and had maybe 40-50 mph gusts. No other reports even close to that. Weird 

9 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

Freakin' amazingly trash models this winter. Just a couple of days ago, I thought Alek's 5.5 call was going to bust due to the best snows being in WI, while I was waiting on a participation trophy for back end reacharound flakes.

Tonight's 3km NAM bullseyes us with 7". Unbelievably bad. I feel bad for forecasters as every time the models pull this crap, they have to take the brunt of it from the public.

Yeah I...have no idea what to do lol!!

4 hours ago, buckeye said:

in non-weather news....from the little sleepy town of Westerville....

I can see the building where the dem debate is being held from my upstairs windows.

....should I hoist a MAGA flag?    

 

Not sure that last sentence, with the following emojis, is very wise or even remotely funny considering the current political environment 

13 hours ago, Indystorm said:

Tor warning now for Lake County Illinois and confirmed tornado in Michigan.

It looks like no tornado was confirmed after all. This is why I'm not a fan of "radar confirmed" language in warnings like the one last night. 

Also not a fan of "law enforcement confirmed," as we learned during the most recent tor warning in Van Wert, OH. Turned out no one saw it, they just THOUGHT they saw it.

3 hours ago, snowlover2 said:

Slight risk added to a good chunk of IL.

The SPC giveth, and the SPC taketh away