Ravens94

HRRR really trending NW now. Hot and heavy 

Rather monster W shift on the 00z HRRR you can see it starting to show the pivot/negative tilt 

3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Can somebody link me to the sref plumes. Tried the link I have but it doesn’t work

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/

HRRR is finally catching on.. SREF plume did go up rather substantial member wide even the bullish ARW 

SREF plume for BWI went up 6 inches to 9.5

GFS trend map just continues West

Another 25-40 miles Baltimore and DC are in the 12-16 range crazy stuff 

Euro wow 

RGEM

RGEM is actually a touch more NW and heavier 

HRRR continues to want to Amp up and dig this storm more and more 

2 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

What is FV3?  The NAM’s replacement?

FV3 has been chosen as the dynamical core for the Next Generation Global Prediction System project (NGGPS), designed to upgrade the current operational Global Forecast System (GFS) to run as a unified, fully-coupled system in NOAA’s Environmental Modeling System infrastructure. FV3 was successfully implemented within the GFS, and the FV3-based GFSv15 became operational on 12 June 2019. Other applications, such as regional high-resolution forecasting and coupled atmosphere-ocean modeling for seasonal prediction, are planned for later implementation at NCEP.

The ARW ensemble is what drug the NAM away looking at the SREF but the NMM went up some over 16 for bwi

NAM is so bad. But then you have the FV3 that's even better. NAM sucks

I certainly think the 12z models are probably going to take another NW jog this might continue till the start.

HRRR is going to make everyone happy. Cheers to the 12z suites coming 

HRRR has not stopped moving NW since 00z Last night.  NAM likely to move more 12z

HRRR is gonna be a smacking 12z

CMC now has the wonder greens too. Seems like literally every model is going towards the GFS and that makes it super hard to discount it

Crazy shifts NW

CMC looks much better at 500 should be a better run also. Trending right. Tapping some GOM moisture this run

Not totally irrelevant but adds to the NW camp JMA has shifted NW big time

I'm big on trends and the Euro has been trying to catch on.  00z tonight should be a improvement based on this. GFS is owning right now 

Honestly nothing stopping this NW push lack of cold air push south has been the case all year good to see all the guidance catching on.

Yup