2010 extreme

1 hour ago, MN Transplant said:

Derecho day was still 103 at 6pm, but caught a river wind and dropped to 96 at 7pm.  Bounced back to 98 at 8pm.

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/va/arlington/KDCA/date/2012-6-29

MN, do you have any records of your high temperature on Friday, July 19 2019 and possibly what time it occurred?

I'm trying to compare obs in Nova from today vs that day.  If so, it's much appreciated.

It's much drier today than five years ago when I 270 flooded badly.

17 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

As is common in these out-of-season events...the NAM and NAM nest favor south and east of the metros for any enhanced activity. 

meh. 

Very true and unlike coastal snow, severe events, particularly large-scale ones tend to trend south and east.  This looks no different as earlier times are now favored. However, large scale off season high shear low cape events which normally fail to gusty showers end up being our most impressive outbreaks when they do perform.  Probably won't happen this time as the period from early October to early November have never really seen much.

 ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 090805
   SPC AC 090805

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0305 AM CDT Sun Oct 09 2022

   Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   ...Wednesday/Day 4 and Thursday/Day 5...
   A cold front is forecast to move quickly eastward across the western
   Great Lakes and mid Mississippi Valley on Wednesday. This will occur
   ahead of a substantial upper-level trough that is forecast to deepen
   during the day. Due to strong forcing associated with the
   upper-level trough and cold front, a line of thunderstorms will
   likely develop Wednesday afternoon. This line of storms should move
   eastward across the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Wednesday
   afternoon. Although a wind-damage threat will be possible along the
   leading edge of this line, limited moisture return and weak
   instability will be problematic for a more widespread threat. An
   isolated wind-damage threat could continue into the evening as the
   cold front and line of storms moves into the central Appalachians.
   The cold front is forecast to move through the Northeast on
   Thursday, and could reintensify by midday from parts of New York and
   Pennsylvania southward into the Mid Atlantic. The wind-damage threat
   could affect areas as far north as New England Thursday afternoon. A
   15 percent contour could be needed in either Day 4 or Day 5, once
   the details become more clear in model runs that come out over the
   next day or two.

Snow in late October can be a death sentence. 10/29/2011

I'm in the place I like viewing this time of night. Just south of the storm for a nice light show.

Ice on top of snow let's do it.

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

 

I'm glad I didn't see this post at work.  It would have made me too hungary to be productive.

Early season clipper anyone? Just 10 days out.

9 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

12z GFS with the type of pattern that can bring first flakes out in mid-month fantasy land. Chilly NW flow with some embedded energy. 

Interesting, that's how it's happened the past two years. Cold NW flow in mid November.

BWI: 10/29

IAD : 10/22

DCA: 11/12

RIC:  10/30

Tie: 1.2"

Looks like the morning rain messed up todays chances.

It was 20years ago College Park and N va outbreak occurred.  What a interesting day that was.

Interesting, never seen a wind advisory two counties wide that has no ridge along its axis and it only last for 4 hours.  Potomac River wind tunnel/channel from 2-6 pm tomorrow.

2 hours ago, MN Transplant said:

That N/S train was like a mini-Lee.  

Looking at the radar reminded me of the exact same thing.  Just a few miles further east.

Have strong gusts here.

BWI : 16.2

DCA : 10.6

IAD : 17.3

RIC : 8.9

Tiebreaker. SBY : 13.4

33 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So...I know this isn't exactly on topic (although this is severe weather)...But I wasn't on these forums during the derecho back in 2012. How much in advance did the various know it was coming? (man that was some epicness that night!)

Several hours at the most other than we could see an mcs coming out of Chicago that morning . Hrrr probably did the best job.  In general, even the high res guidance have a hard time picking up on the timing and trajectory of mcs  systems.

17 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

NAM nest sucks except for a lone supercell-type storm that goes right over DC. Distinct possibility some of us blank on all 3 days...

Exactly, now if we can just get the winds backed at the surface.

Just came here cause I have family in the southeast affected by this storm but looks like I visited here at the wrong time.  Anyways looks like the Charlotte area will be close between snow and sleet. 

DCA: 11/15

BWI: 10/25

IAD: 10/21

RIC: 11/9

Tiebreaker: 3.42

I was driving and never felt it.

It was at this time mid night sunday morning walking north on my street in nearly knee deep snow I could see clear sky to my west and and a definitave back edge of the clouds looking east as the last flurries were flying. It was a spectacular end to the storm.

It was at this time friday evening snow had started to overspread much of the area.

That storm was a nearly perfect miller a for ma, very similar to Feb 1983. The storm already had an eye and tons of moisture ahead of it before before it made land fall in western Florida! I was supposed to work from 10am to 6pm that day which was the time the worst would be. Im glad I called out even they were pressuring me to come in that morning because by the evening there was a solid 18-22 inch wall of snow between the main road and my street. Since I drive a corolla that would have been a disaster.