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geddyweather

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Posts posted by geddyweather

    1/8-1/10 Potential Winter Storm

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    9 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

    Looks like we have a 981MB SLP in E IL currently.

    So it most definitely will end up sub-980MB as it continues into IN/MI.

    Believe 981.9mb at KIND will be a new minimum MSLP record for January, breaking 1978's record of 984.4

    Jan 11-13th Blizzard

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    IN/OH bros rejoice.

    GFS, NAM, Canadian all have a bit flatter look in development like @andyhb mentioned, looks like due to a sharper Thursday wave and resulting response in ON from quick looks at 500mb on each. This still gets a relatively strong SLP into OH but much more progressive NE forward movement vs the bombing northerly cut. Solid totals across a lot of the forum but the brunt definitely settles into Nrn IN/NW OH/Srn MI.

    • Like 1

    Jan 11-13th Blizzard

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    7 minutes ago, Stebo said:

    Definitely don't like the Euro overamplified look, but I will say it was overamplified with the current system at this junction too. The GFS is probably a more reasonable solution just because the rarity of getting a low as strong as the Euro that far south and the GFS did pretty well with the current system where as a lot of other models had the low further north.

    Been wondering this the whole time tbh. As much fun as it's been to watch, the climatology part of my brain has been rattling with the fact that it's just so unusual to see such an amplified system in that part of the region. Not saying it couldn't happen, but given the current background state (system today + disturbance Thursday + eastern ridging possibly playing a hand too) and past history, does it make sense?

    • Like 1

    Jan 11-13th Blizzard

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    Another wet one for the Ohio crew. Needs a reel east which isn't likely to happen under the current regime unless we get some help from the Thursday system or eastern blocking. Pain.

    Scale of deepening on the GFS is incredible. 992 to 979mb in 6 hours in the MS Valley, not something you see everyday.

     

    • Like 2

    Severe Weather 4-4-23 and 4-5-23

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    7 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

    I'm all for severe weather out in open fields in Iowa, but I'll never understand why people want severe weather in their backyards and homes. As far as today goes, front sped up, less time for atmosphere to get juiced for metro detroit. It's always something on this side of the state for storms lol.

    Bingo. Wondered about this last night as storm motions in IA/IL reached 40-60mph compared to some of the CAM guidance.

    Speaking of, after a relatively well forecasted 3/31 the models absolutely struggled with this. Different forcing mechanisms, speed uncertainty, and biases really seemed to wreck havoc with this.

    • Like 4

    March 31st Severe Threat

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    15 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

    Hmmm.....  The HRRR has mid 70s and storms forming east of Cedar Rapids.  The 3k NAM has low 60s and storms forming near Des Moines.  :huh:

    Differences between these are too much to ignore tbh. Have to wonder if the HRRR is too juiced, though several other non-NAM CAMs and even the NBM seem to be leaning warmer with larger areas of 60+ dews.

    Hurricane Ian

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

    As we've seen the last several years there is not much you can do sometimes when it comes to intensity. Now model intensity guidance had been very aggressive in this becoming a category 4 hurricane but as we got closure there actually became a bit more in the way of spread regarding this and for good measures. 

    ... 

    I wish I could scream this from the rooftops.

    Plus, in regards to the ERC, there is so much uncertainty in regards to the efficiency and duration of this process that it could have had a number of different impacts on the storm. If the process takes a day or 2 complete vs just 12-18 hours, does it reach 155mph? If the eyewall never closes back up, does dry air + shear become a more prominent factor? What happens if the core doesn't double in size? How do any of these impact the system track? Etc etc etc...

    The reality is we had a unique mixture of synoptic variables here compared to other Gulf storms which resulted in significant impacts to both track and intensity forecasts. As such the more moving pieces you inject into forecasts like this, the wider your envelope of outcome becomes even when in close range. 

    • Thanks 1

    Hurricane Ian

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    Just now, MattPetrulli said:

    https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/inundationdb/storm/Ian.html

    Ft Myers at 5.31 and on a steep rise

    This is what I have been looking for, thank you so much. Easy to confuse or lose resources on a day like this. 

    Yeah, so, already set a record level here and no sign of slowdown. I think it is safe to infer for those asking that surge flooding is in progress across Ft. Myers proper as well as much of Cape Coral. This will continue to rise over the next few hours. Bad bad situation.

    Hurricane Ian

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    41 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

    4.38 ft is the highest crest ever on that. We may double that.

    Last observed value at 3:36pm EDT was at 4.15 ft. Safe to assume that 50 minutes later, it has been broken. Not hard to imagine a very dangerous situation unfolding inland now...

    Likely may be the hurricane doing this, but updates from here are very patchy. Is there a better way to see tidal gauges update than the AHPS site I linked to?

    Hurricane Ian

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    It's probably been alluded to already but, though not as flashy as Tampa Bay, a storm surge into Port Charlotte or Ft. Myers would be incredibly dangerous. Slowly hitting that there is no "good" place for this to come ashore given the current trends.

    2022 Short/Medium Range Severe Weather Discussion

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    Models are not going to be of much help, going the old fashioned way seems to be the play today. CAPE gradient already developing along the warm front which should continue to advect NE-ward as the afternoon goes on. Storms in southern MN slowly getting together on the flank of the seemingly stronger of the MCVs would be what I'd keep an eye on currently. Current mean winds suggest this initial activity turns to the SE as it moves into central WI. SPC seems to support this becoming the main show as this is around where the ENH corridor begins.

    • Like 1

    Feb 1-3rd GHD III Part 3

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    47 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

    The northern part of the front is painstakingly creeping E/SE.  Ive flipped back and forth  from rain, pingers and snow 3 times in the last hour.

    vtm_sf.gif?1643836072543

    This has sooooooo many poeple back home antsy and ready to throw in the towel. The pretty consistent stream of moisture back through IND and into the OH Valley + slow but steady SE movement + rapidly approaching sunset says otherwise though. Definitely will keep the 20-30" totals away but this whole corridor is still set for a good 8-12"/10-15" type storm imo. 

    • Like 1

    June 20th, 2021 Severe Weather Event

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    8 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said:

    Update from IWX. A couple hours old now but shows they’re confident storms will develop as the MCV approaches. It’s been warm and muggy with sunshine all day. The webinar indicates US 30 as the most likely area for tornadoes, but the location of the warm front depicted in the SPC MD would make me think the state line  might be a better option? 

    Actually US 30 in western IN probably is a good call. Further east the risk shifts more so along/north US 24 which I figure is what you are alluding to.

    Think SPC (plus IWX) are actually onto something here. Increasing bulk shear and a much more unstable environment are available especially in the central/eastern zones of the MCD should allow *something* to crank along that MCV. Feel that IWX's thinking of supercell to linear transition is probably the most accurate though this week has shown that if an established supercell or two can root themselves along the warm front, they can stay productive for a little longer before changing modes.

    • Like 1
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