Misstertwister

Is that low slowing down some slightly? Seems like some new thinking might have it lagging a little further west now and I-35 corridor more of a late evening threat or MCS

15 minutes ago, Indystorm said:

18z NAM 3k has initiation in the TX/OK panhandles in the morning and moves to central OK by late afternoon.  But this is one run of one model.  Keep alert to future forecasts.

Do you look at composite reflectivy dbz?

 I use pivotal weather. 

10 minutes ago, Indystorm said:

Hopefully the school already has a policy in place to cover issues such as this....like early dismissal or no school if the day starts out as high risk in the outlook.  Initiation and timing are almost always day of sort of decisions with only educated guesses this far out in advance.

Does this look like typical Tx panhandle/ western ok initiation first like usual on the DL? I’ve noticed there might be some earlier initiation further east possibly

Hello my favorite weather casters. As I’ve always mentioned many of you have helped me overcome a lot of my severe weather anxiety by showing me how to look at wind fields, EHi, dew points and various other parameters to look ahead and prepare for potential weather days.

howevwr, one thing I’m not good at is looking at possible where initiation may begin. 

My question is about Monday. As it looks there could be some significant weather and I will be out of town. I live in Edmond OK and my kids will be in school. I’ve arranged for their grandma to possibly get them out early just in case things get bumpy earlier than normal. 

Is there a way to analyze where initiation may start and if there will be time for them to finish school?  

This is not a question like will it hit XYZ at 5:30  

just more of being prepared and not getting congested at school if grandma does need to get them early 

Hey guys. Dumb question. When you say tor probs  where is that? Meso discussion? Watches?

38 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

Back half of of May is looking good for chasers who can forecast. Might be a couple big days, and maybe a big crap-out; otherwise, looks like a nice set-up picker's market. Closed lows (like this week) can and do produce like Wray Colorado. Week of the 15th, late that week near the Rozel anniversary, looks like a gorgeous open trough. Still fighting remnants of East trough, but the Plains can recover quickly in mid-May. Ensembles and weeklies hint at another trough week of May 22, again maybe later in the week. The later in May the better. Yes, it is hard to screw up late May barring a total debacle pattern.

What do you look at for troughing long term? Wind fields? GFS, CFS,?  This one thing I'm getting new at and haven't really understood what to look for.

im getting better at looking at short term for different variables i.e., EHI, dewpoint, wind speeds form 850 to 500, cape, CIN but I never really dive in to long term like a lot of y'all fo

whats the latest thoughts on what this actual topic is for............Central/Western Medium-Long Range Discussion???

Don't forget to check winds upstairs. Look for southwest winds at 500 mb and 200 mb; west is even better at 200 mb. Look for nearly straight south at 850 mb, SSE is even better. I wrote a lot more in the May 7-9 severe thread page 26.

At any rate the 12Z GFS in on board with winds, and with low press and fronts in the central Plains. Lots of rain shown before peak heating, but it is days away...

Yes. Thanks. Will do. I'm still not sure if I look for CAPE first then other parameters. It seems to me you need the energy in a specific area is why I look for CAPE first then try to put the puzzle together. I'll get the hang of it soon

Very interested in next Monday. GFS shows a pretty potent setup over C OK.

Euro lags behind.

As I've posted in the May 7-10 thread, I'm new at the this and learning which I find fascinating. I just recently scanned the GFS 18Z for 00Z Tuesday May 16. I noticed all the SBCAPE moved south to DFW from C. OK. Am I correct?

It seemed earlier that C. OK looked potent and may still but again just now in infant stages of reading the models.

You worried about flooding or severe weather?

Smokey-

Stop posting. You add nothing of value and no one has ever responded to your comments. Just follow along and look for pertinent info for your area to stay aware as many other people do.

Hopefully your precious soccer games don't get rained out

Got a lot of kid activities Wednesday night in OKC/edmond. What's the potential here? Naders or good ole spring storms

Got a lot of kid activities Wednesday night in OKC/edmond. What's the potential here? Naders or good ole spring storms