dseagull

Unlikely for this to offer a good surprise for the forum, but I'd wait to see if the energy from the kicker winds up more strung out and further WNW. Very curious to see the 500mb depictions at 12z and 00z. Im not buying the low closing off down in Georgia. Regardless, fun one to track.

Dont get me wrong, as Im on Barnegat Bay... But id like to see a region-wide blockbuster event. We cashed out in 2018 and 2022, on two bombs that left NYC feeling robbed of potential.

100-125 miles NW, and its game on. Plenty of time. Looking forward to recon data being ingested into models.

00z tonight could very well bring it back. We know this story. Regardless of outcome, the low is going to absolutely bomb.

5.5 days

Snowpack will help. Radiational cooling on cloudless nights will help. Low ceiling cloud cover will work against the city though. I don't envy those who attempt to figure out urban heat outputs. Wayyy too dynamic. In any case, this is a winter-lover's paradise thd next 10 days or more.

Would be an absolute KU bomb. Show this to me Wednesday night and I'll take the bait.

As depicted, the next two weeks would be pretty memorable. Will be plenty of tracking ahead, but will begin taking runs seriously only if they are all onboard come Wednesday afternoon.

Haven't chimed in on this one much until now. While total snowfall depths are often the hot topic of debate, this storm (in our subforum,) is going to be known for something entirely different near the city and coastal plains. Mixing, even over to a brief light rain or snizzle, is only going to make the freeze and frozen concrete worse. The crashing reinforcement of cold air on Monday is going to absolutely be the headline. Id much rather have to deal with 12-18 inches of powder than what we are likely going to have to deal with. You cant shovel chunks of frozen snow in 10-20 degree temps. Been there, done that. This storm is going to delay many construction projects.

Headlines and click bait sell... nothing is genuine in "journalism" anymore.

By the time all is said amd done, this storm will mostly be remembered for the areas that recieve ice, and the following arctic air. Sure doesnt look like the blockbuster metropolis snowstorm we were hoping would thread the needle. Im enjoying watching the evolution of model outputs, particularly the AI versions. We have a longgggg way to go with AI models, and without sampling, its evident that solutions will likely not verify at a higher level than traditional models.

If the north trend stops or shifts back south 50 miles, I agree with you. Toms river would do OK. Could very well see the warm nose come to fruition, though... and that would be pretty brutal.

Going to be a fun couple days to see which models handle the phase best. Regardless of the outcome, Im just stoked to have a setup like this to track again. Its been a minute....

Very True. I should have specified for my location coastal OC NJ. Euro, if depicted correctly would even mix for awhile into the city, and absolutely LI.

Going to be a classic GFS vs Euro battle royale...