METALSTORM

Would someone smarter than me (which is most) have an analog to compare this possible event to?

On 9/3/2021 at 3:54 PM, GrindOutWins said:

Absolutely epic thread. The scary thing about this event at this point - in today's realm of increasingly intense short lived events - is that a single EF4 or EF5, or widespread outbreak, is possible in a highly and densely populated area. Seems like just a matter of time. Dallas, Oklahoma City, St. Louis, Chicago, one of the larger FL metro areas. 

In the past 11 years the St Louis area has experienced an EF4, two EF3s and several EF2s. The Dallas/Fort Worth metroplex has experienced EF3s and 4s in the past 10 years. And Oklahoma City and it's suburbs have been walloped by many tornados. EF5s have either struck OKC directly or slammed the suburbs. And so has multiple EF4s. It's not a matter of time. It's already happened. A lot. 

Just now, canderson said:

There's long been a theory that ex-tropical systems once inland can't produce monster tornadoes, but rather spinups (EF 0, mayyyybe a 1). 

That NJ tornado looks like an EF 4 to me. 

When these storms are hurricanes and they are just making landfall the tornados produced are usually weaker. Low end EF2 or lower. When they move inland, weaken to a sloppy low pressure area while transporting deep tropical moisture, and begin interacting with fronts and encountering wind shear is when deeper convection begins to develop and becomes supercellular in nature. Last night was a very good example of that. Stronger, long track tornados associated with severe thunderstorms, torrential rain, a lot of lightning with the stronger storms. The really odd thing of course was location. Eastern PA, NJ, NYC and LI, CT, and Cape Cod. Very rare event obviously.

May Louie and Jackson run and play in the meadows of heaven.

13 minutes ago, Powerball said:

 

The damage reminds me of The Good Friday tornado in the St Louis area back in 2011.

Nothing really wrong with it. It would just be statements issued with no label. Significant weather advisories are not really needed when a simple statement such as "thunderstorms with gusty winds to 40mph, pea size hail, and frequent lightning will move across such and such counties between 215pm CDT and 345pm cdt. Move indoors until the storms pass. Heavy rain may cause ponding of water on roads." 

It seems the Southeastern Forum is dominated by perpetual winter discussions about the slightest chance of snow in the Carolinas. Perhaps the Carolinas should have their own forum. And have Eastern MS, AL, TN, GA, FL for the Southeast. Just my two cents. 

2 hours ago, kayman said:

Another confirmed tornado touched down this morning at Tallahassee International Airport. The NWS Tallahassee weather office radar was hit by the storm. Surveys will be conducted in the next 36 hours to determine the severity.

We have to do better on covering other areas and other weather conditions in the SE aside from NC and SC snowfall forecasts. Otherwise, we need to recommend renaming to the Carolinas and move the other SE states to other regional subforums.

 

I second that motion.

It's just awful. No other way to describe it. Takes forever to load. Reflectivity looked better on the old standard mode with the white background. Big letdown. 

32 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

This thread sure is dead. Lol. I do like the upcoming potential this week. Good moisture and instability though nam is keeping it more into OK and less into KS. A lot of this week, minus a shortwave on Wed, will be mostly mesoscale related details. I'm not a fan of the overall weak wind fields but the chance of discrete development on a sharp dryline is pretty good esp on Wed with a better defined wave

A lot of people are probably doing Mothers Day celebrations. If this thread doesn't heat up Monday and Tuesday I will be shocked though. Discrete development potential in traditional chase territory should get everyone buzzing.

The first part of both videos reminded me of the Wichita Andover storm as it was over McConnell AFB. The debris being thrown just beyond the parking lot. All it needed was a barracks building to the right of the screen.

3 minutes ago, jpeters3 said:

Thanks!

I'm not sure if it's the TV stations on site radar or the radar you referenced but either way it's in Monroe and updates about every minute and 30

1 minute ago, jpeters3 said:

Unfortunately you can't view KULM on radarscope...

You can view it through this local station. 

https://www.myarklamiss.com/live-stream/

Just now, MUWX said:

They seem to be running a little late with the update 

I kind of expected it to. Probably some heated discussions and maybe out and out arguing. Or revising the written disco.

18 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said:

Is tornado chasing essential? 

 

If it's you and 1 or 2 others it should be fine. Just bring alcohol wipes or Chlorox wipes and sanitizer. Pack your own food. At the rate these storms will be moving it will be more of a quick intercept rather than following and staying with it.

The afternoon AFDs and HWOs from JAN, HUN, BMX, and FFC are pretty bleak and highlighting long track strong tornadoes and other attendant hazards. Including what could be a flash flood event in addition to the rest of the severe. Chasing would be almost impossible given projected storm motion speeds. Would be more of a storm intercept situation. 

Maybe throwing around comparisons to 4/27/11 isn't a very good idea at this point. Every parameter was so off the scale that day it almost wasn't believable. Birmingham broke 90 that day providing the tornadic equivalent of 110 octane racing fuel. This upcoming event certainly looks very ominous and looks like a significant threat to life and property but maybe comparisons to past events should wait until the event has moved on. Just my 2 cents. I'll see myself out now.

The PDS turned out to be a Particularly Dull Situation

31 minutes ago, snowlover2 said:

And even if you don't have a PDS watch you can still get violent tornadoes. Only need to go back to the memorial day tornado outbreak as evidence of that.

Or Nashville and Cookeville as much more recent examples.

Here is Bree Smith's forecast from WTVF. Not an over alarming forecast but she did emphasize that severe weather was possible and to have a way to get warnings overnight. I consider her one of the better TV mets out there. 

28 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

If we see an upgrade to high risk b/c of tornado probs this is the area I'm thinking. Latest guidance really hammering in on this area 

Even if they don't go with a high risk their will probably be a PDS tornado watch for that area in the late evening

1 hour ago, Calderon said:

The Slidell (LIX) office put out some stronger wording in their afternoon AFD. The potential certainly is there for a significant event for the region.

HUN has a pretty strongly worded AFD as well. 

Strange that there's no mention of this potentially significant severe set up in the Southeastern Forum. They're all worried about some flurries around the 15th or something.

1,197.

First High Risk, 3/18

There will be an EF5 this year sadly

Just now, downeastnc said:

That was a house under construction......still some of the footage shows trees that are what you would expect from a violent higher end tornado......at least a high end EF3....

Some of the other pics look EF4ish. I guess we'll know in 2 or 3 days what the pros have to say.