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Good news for this forum is that I am probably taking a last-minute trip out to SoCal this weekend so the chance that this is the one that the GFS sniffs out just went up dramatically.

1 hour ago, dryslot said:

You know it’s been a snowy period when you see this in the county, They had to close US Rte 1 because of tractor trailers stuck in drifts.

Impressive after CAR had their first brown New Years IIRC. Hasn't been above 34 since then.

The cam up on the hill in Dublin is fun because you can see the wind direction from the flag pole (camera looks SE).

All day it was pinned with winds from the east, then went limp about 90 minutes ago, and is now showing winds from the west.

And nice looking SN.

6 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

12z NAM looking ominous at 84hrs.  We need the DGEX back.

I remember throwing my back out many times shoveling DGEX snow.

6 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

No need to change a flight now anyway.  Storm now has zero support.

Oh, I know … it's just … the general public and their apps are … very misinformed.

Literally "I am having anxiety about a storm five days out"

Yeah, we all are, kid, but know deep down in our hearts it's pretty unlikely to come.

I had someone flying out of BOS on Thursday email me and ask what they should do.

My response was take 10 deep breaths and wait two days, the models would probably send it out to sea.

Probably some weather app overreacting to a couple of model runs. People seem to think that 5 days out isn't clown range because their phone pops up an icon.

33 minutes ago, tamarack said:

My threshold for a big snow month is 30" - we've had 22 such months in our first 21 winters here, never more than 2 winters without one, but the most recent was January 2019.  Maybe the coming 3 storms thru 2/20 can produce a 17"+ total; if not, this will be the 6th in a row w/o a 30-spot month as March looks to be a long shot.

BOS has had one more recently than you in Jan '22.

Before that both Jan and Feb '15, Feb '13, Jan '11, Jan '05, Feb '03, Jan '96, Jan and Feb '94.

Then you have to go back to Jan '78 (but *not* Feb), Feb '69, Mar '56, Jan '48, Jan '38.

So, five from 1938-1988

10 and counting 1988-2038.

42 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Not Kuchie 

I've thrown out my back this season from shoveling D8 snow.

Would be nice if there wasn't a flood of warm air in behind it to melt it off but beggars can't be choosers.

Prospect Mountain (in Mitch-land, 2250' on Route 9 in Woodford, Vermont) has a webcam and a wx station.

They crossed 32˚ at 0850, sat at 37˚ from 1000 to 1130, then dropped to 32˚ in about 30 minutes.

https://dashboard.hobolink.com/public/PMA weather dashboard#/

Cam now showing SN.

https://prospectmountain.com/trail-cam/

19 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

It's just incredibly boring.  No real warm days, few cold days, and those are generally nothing super cold.  No decent storms

Reminds me a bit of 2015-2016

Disagree.

2015-2016 was just very warm with one arctic shot. At BOS:

Dec:
2015: 45.3˚, 0.9" (high temp of 69˚ on xmas eve; not really the grinch because there was nothing to steal; I had friends in Vermont who went swimming in the pond they usually skated on)
2024: 35.3, 5.7"

Jan:
2016: 32.5˚, 9.5"
2025: 28.7˚, 8.2"

Jan has been similar-ish although cooler this year. Feb that year had the one cold snap (down to -9˚ in BOS) but the rest of the month was warm; it was 65˚ on the 1st and 64˚ on the 29th.

2015-6 had 35 days >50˚ at BOS (20, 4, 11), so far 2024-5 has had 8 (8, 0, ?)

Watching the squall come through from this webcam in Windsor, Mass. at Notchview:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T0keY9QYH54

If you scroll back to 12:57 you can see the vis go from clear to "can't see across the field" (the trees in the distance are <500' away, so basically 1/16SM).

Video should work for the next 12h.

25 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It's funny that Pinkham Notch actually has one on record....lol. (Feb '69 storm)

And reported 164" of snow depth with zero settling during the storm. I assume they were just glancing at the snow stake every few hours. If they were taking more frequent measurements, who knows how much snow would have been observed. I'd imagine there were some avalanches up in Tucks from that one.

1 hour ago, wx2fish said:

MHT and CON are -1 to -2 too. Last couple of days evened out the departures after BOS was running a couple degrees colder relative to normal. Maybe call it seasonably cold locally.

To put the last couple Jans in perspective...MHT is running 10F colder than Jan 2023 and 6F colder than Jan 2024. Avg high temp mtd this Jan is 32.3F and the Avg T in Jan 2023 was 34.7F! So the highs this month are running colder than the avg T in 2023. Funny thing is that month as torched as Jan 2023 and Jan 2024 were both had considerably more snow mtd. 

BOS has stayed below 50˚ this month so far and no model has it anywhere much above 40˚ the rest of the month. Would be the first <50˚ Jan since 2009 and first month since 2015 (Feb '15 and Feb '13). Mean days >50˚ is 4 and mean monthly high temp is 56˚. So while it hasn't been frigid it has not been warm either.

Assuming it doesn't go above 47˚ or below 10˚ the rest of the month (the GFS doesn't suggest this, the Euro thinks it might toy with 10˚) the range of 37˚ will be the fifth lowest range for Jan on record, behind 2001 (12˚–44˚), 2009 (6˚–40˚), 1955 (10˚–45˚) and 2023 (23˚–58˚).

This is also why while it has been dry the ski areas are doing great because it's been cold with low dewpoints which is great for snowmaking (and they don't really like it down below 0˚ because of evaporation and stuff freezing real quick).

19 minutes ago, tamarack said:

That 1917-18 week set a lot of records.  NYC had temps of 8/-6, 2/-13, 6/-7, 10/-4, 10/2, 12/0, 18/-3.   Week average: 9.4/-4.4/2.5
A century later (and a lot farther north) we bridged into the new year with 6/-16, -3/-14, -1/-31, 7/-25, 1/-18, 1/-24, 6/-27  Week average:  2.4/-22.1/-10.9

i was in Mont Ste Anne that week, we didn't crack zero between our arrival and going through Concord, NH on the way home.

This morning:

PANC: 36, 3" snow depth, 1.9" monthly snowfall

KMSY: 23, 8" snow depth, 8" monthly snowfall

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Dec 17?

5 in a row at BDL <20 (3rd longest streak behind 1979 and 1918). 6 in a row at BOS (second behind 1918).

Looks more likely than not that BOS will have its first Jan that doesn't hit 50 since 2009. Average monthly max is 56, previous recent below-50s include 2009 (40), 2003 (44), 2001 (44), 1991 (49), 1985 (45), 1977 (47), so about one year in seven.

4 hours ago, alex said:

Very elevation dependent around here. Snow here at home at 32F, about 3/4”, but it was plain rain in Groveton all the way to Twin Mountain

Yeah per Google Maps looks like the bad driving is Campton through the Notch but once you drop a few feet fine, and then once you get past Fabyans and south through Crawford. Hope the nordic trails got snow and they groom it tomorrow morning … we're trying to thread the needle between SN.

Let's not get too carried away running towards the end zone here, Leon is still with us.

Last year's Valentine's debacle didn't really bust until 24h before the event start … which would be the 18Z suite.

34 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Nasty cutoff south of Boston but unfortunately it's likely it will be real, somewhere

Real, and spectacular.

Going to sleep.

Will know by the page count (currently 53) if the Euro has followed the NAM offshore or not.

Meme me up, Scotty.

It would be very 2025 for the NAM to score a coup over all the other guidance for the first time in the direction of "not a storm" rather than its usual excitement over storms that fizzle/miss.

GFS looks great for SNE/coastal areas (this is out to 240h).

G