BK Rambler

Since I'm in the bullseye of BigJoe's negative temp anomaly I thought I'd take a look at some historical data for Atlanta.  If this were to verify, a -6 DJF winter would tie for the 3rd coldest on record ('63, '64).  Only '77 & '78 colder.  We'll see.  BigJoe always seems to have a cold bias in the East to his forecasts.

1 hour ago, downeastnc said:

run this loop and watch the cold over in Siberia start to migrate back to the Hudson Bay area....we get a tall western ridge to come back and all that good deep cold will be headed southbound....

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=nhem&pkg=T2m&runtime=2018012006&fh=0

Day after day of -35°C temps in Siberia - those are some tough folks.

10 hours ago, LithiaWx said:

KATL is -8 for January through the 18th.  35.0 average.  Wondering how that ranks all time for ATL. 

If January 2018 ended today this would be the fifth coldest January on record (140 years) at ATL- looks like that number is going to back off some though as we finish the month.

19 minutes ago, WarmNose said:

I've always found these maps misleading. They use these dark orange and red colors to give the impression that the word is on fire but the truth is, if that dark red up around Siberia makes it into the lower 48 they'll have to make a new shade of blue to show temperature departure from normal. It's all relative I guess idk

Plus these type of maps highly distort the size of the polar area - the actual polar area on the globe is much smaller

FFC is interested - from this morning's discussion:

"GFS and ECMWF models are in good agreement regarding the timing of this
frontal feature, bringing PoPs in late Sunday night and until
early Tuesday morning when the moves eastward out of the area.
With this continuing increased confidence, have increased to
categorical PoPs during the daytime on Monday. By Sunday night, a
wedge will have formed across the northeast portions of the
forecast area. Cold temperatures at the surface within the wedge
combined with warmer temperatures aloft will create the potential
for freezing rain and sleet. Wintry precipitation total will be
highly dependent on the position and strength of the wedge, so
forecast will be subject to change over the next few days."

They have already put mix of rain / freezing rain into the forecast for my area (N Metro ATL) for Sunday night / Monday AM