NCSU_Pi

Well, even if things completely bust tomorrow, we'll always have tonight's win over Duke.

11 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

The NAM has its flaws, but I think it's ironic to see it written off by so many mets. The two minor events that have occurred so far in W NC, NW SC and parts of Georgia were nailed by the NAM, days in advance. It's had solid footing this year.

Yeah, but saying that the times when it's snowed supports the model that said that it was going to snow, so therefore we should believe it when it says it will snow is at most half of the consideration. I could make a 'model' that says it will snow every day, and it would meet that standard. The other part of it is: how often has it called for significant snow and then been wrong this far out?

4 minutes ago, BullCityWx said:

This is going to be another good run of the 12k NAM  as far as I can tell. The 3K hasn’t got there just yet.

So is it really a quadruple threat cage match with the 3k and 12k NAMs on different sides?

22 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

NAM showing snow for most of NC.

OK, Nammer

Any chance we can get the rest of this game in Carter-Finley called off because of a sudden... weather... something?

On the 10 minute drive home from dinner around 7:00, the cooldown was starting. For the first 5 minutes of the drive, my car said 82. By the time I got home, it was 79. As I stepped out, I felt three whole raindrops.

I think those were literally the only raindrops.

1 minute ago, ragtop50 said:

I thought Wilmington received 26" of rain with Florence last year?  I know that was over multiple days but I would have thought the daily record would have been shattered during Florence?

I think when people refer to the daily record, they probably mean the record on that day. Fran was hitting Wilmington on 9/5.

The impact of Dorian could result in maps having to be redrawn after all the impacts to inlets and barrier islands and whatnot are accounted for. Here's the projection the White House released:

9 hours ago, YetAnotherRDUGuy said:

Ugh. Well I hope they've learned they're lesson since then..

When you live in a dirt floor shack near the river, you don't exactly have a lot of options.

53 minutes ago, YetAnotherRDUGuy said:

I'd be more worried about Dorian if Florence hadn't came thru last year. I figured if anything survived Florence, it can handle this one. (in the Shallotte area)

My mom's between OIB and Sunset. Her house backs into a creek that empties into the Intercoastal. She's staying with her sister in Little River that's about 3 miles inland that's got some slight elevation, and doesn't have much trees around. (which means I ain't too worried about wind impacts)

When this thing clears out, I'm heading down to Mom's Fri night/Sat to help with any cleanup. I don't expect there will be too much because she's got oaks on her property that have been there for years, and survived a few Cat 2's (and Florence) without much damage. But I'll bring the chainsaw just in case.

Yeah, I'm not too worried about them. They're up high enough that not even the Cat 5 storm surge model touches their house. They'll have to deal with power outages and all that, but they'll be fine. They're in good shape, and it's not like they're elderly.

I went down after Florence and we rode around Ash and the areas around the Waccamaw. It just became a giant swamp. And the people that live there, for the most part, lacked the means to deal with something like that. It was just tragic.

And with that, both the parents and in-laws are in Hurricane Warnings. I already know my parents are planning on staying in Shallotte. I need to see what the in-laws are planning in the Porter's Neck area. They're really low, with their back up against a tidal creek off Middle Sound.

For reference, based on what the guy said in that last video, what the houses around him looked like, and where the winds were coming from, I think it's here:

https://www.google.com/maps/place/26°34'15.4"N+78°34'31.0"W/@26.570937,-78.5758192,252m/data=!3m2!1e3!4b1!4m6!3m5!1s0x0:0x0!7e2!8m2!3d26.5709368!4d-78.5752717

But if that's too speculative for the storm thread, please delete.

48 minutes ago, Tar Heel Snow said:

https://www.al.com/hurricane/2019/09/hurricane-dorian-2019-watch-dorian-approach-the-bahamas-and-florida-on-these-webcams.html

 

unbelievable what’s happening on these webcams

Be careful what you trust. That first link looked like it had a loop in it at one point, and I know some folks on the tropical board thread were talking about fake live streams on YouTube.

These seem legit, so far, but maybe just because they're not on Abaco.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=panj1oZ6zLM

 

Lost power in Swift Creek around 10:00

Guys, I hate to ask a MBY post when you're likely in storm mode, but I beg a special dispensation: I'm flying back to RDU late Saturday night, and I would like to hear about the timing. I have a very inconsistent internet connection here, and many common sources of information, like Twitter, are blocked by the Great Firewall.

How likely is an impact by Saturday night? Not just in terms of getting on the ground, but also getting home from the airport. I know I could probably read back some pages, but I don't have a whole lot of time, and I'm worried I may lose my connection at any moment.

Thanks, and please have mercy, mods.

It's gotten gusty, but it's starting to clear, and looking at the radar, it seems like our corner of the county might escape without much drama at all. I doubt many, if any, trees are down around us.

1 minute ago, downeastnc said:

all the RDU folks are gone lol.....either they are outside watching or they all lost power....

Still here, and still have power, for now.

Which is good, because we have dinner in the oven, and about 30 minutes left on the timer 

Anyway, it's starting to pick up here after the nice, long lull. But not much rain again yet, and the real show still hasn't hit.

Down around Swift Creek, it's been gusty off and on, but never too extreme. Power has flickered a few times, but survived. I think the pruning around the lines that they did sometime last winter (IIRC) along Yates Mill has helped us a lot.

I feel like we've dodged a bullet so far, here.

3 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

Sorry...What is IR?

Infrared satellite imagery

Thanks for the replies, everyone. With the exception of installing some light switches, my AC experience ends between the power-entry-module and the DC power supply. I know enough to not try to get in over my head. I like the idea of having my fridge, TV, and a few fans, but I can get by without it for a while. One of the biggest hassles to me seems to be keeping enough gas on hand to keep it running. The eldest can drink water instead of milk, and the youngest is on formula. I'm more worried about our community well keeping up, and I've stocked up on a lot of drinking water (and making plans for gray water).

Cooking will be a coleman stove or a charcoal grill. Got plenty of fuel for both.

Good luck, everyone. Praying for safety.

26 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Go ahead and pull the trigger.  It’s a good thing to have whether you use it next week or not.  Plus, if you’re hoping for a Florence miss, why not go ahead and seal the deal early?!

How significant is the process of hooking things up to a generator? If you're ordering one off Amazon, is it a portable one?

And how much gas do you need to have on hand to last at least a week running a refrigerator, some lights, maybe a fan, and since they don't use much power these days, a TV?

I'm assuming I'm out of luck if I want to hook up a generator I got from Amazon to power a heat pump and air handler.

Edit: Sorry if this is too off-topic for this thread.

Let me interrupt the fish talk to say: Torch > ZR

That is all.

3 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

Wilmington shouldn't see much. We have had our share this winter. 

Right, so maybe send some snow down to my parents in Shallotte. They're still miffed at how they got passed over last time.

1 hour ago, Queencitywx said:

Das ist gud 

Apparently someone told Ze Germans about the Wake County Snow Shield

Has anyone ever tried to devise an official Snow Disappointment Index? It seems like it could be done.

Maybe take the fantasy snow lost divided by the annual average snowfall.

You'd divide by annual average, because heavy snow regions would otherwise dominate based on high potential variability. In a stormy region, you could end up with 30" of fantasy snow, only to see 5" fall, for a loss of 25". But after a winter of several feet of snowfall, you're not really disappointed. In Raleigh, you could get your entire season's average to show up as fantasy snow 24 hours ahead of the event, only to get a trace.

How you define fantasy snow might be tricky, but we could agree on some metric. Maybe an average of the Euro, GFS, and a short range model like the NAM, at some specific point in time before the event.

ETA: it should be net fantasy snow lost. If you overperform, that comes off your totals.